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Dissolution or disillusion?
Midnight bolt from the blue
By Chandani Kirinde
It was clearly not a question of if -- but of when President Chandrika Kumaratunga would dissolve Parliament after the last parliament completed its first year.

In spite of a presidential promise to the people's assembly on August 20, 2001 that parliament elected at the December 5, 2001 general elections would not be dissolved as long as the party in office commanded the majority, the possibility of a dissolution hanged over the UNF like the sword of Damocles.

Ending uncertainty and all sorts of speculation, the President at the stroke of midnight on February 7 decreed the dissolution. Now with the country heading for its third general election in less than four years, political parties are gearing up to meet the challenges in the run-up to the polls while voters raise questions and the international community expresses concern.

The immediate reaction of the UNF was one of anger. Describing the dissolution as a "dictatorial" action, the UNF said it was ready to face the election. Cabinet Spokesman G. L. Peiris called the move "selfish, narrow minded and undemocratic".

"She is only thinking of herself and is willing to sacrifice anything for her personal gain," Prof. Peiris told a news conference this week. The mood in the newly formed SLFP-JVP alliance camp was one of jubilation. They justified the President's action saying it was necessary in the interest of the country. "No one can question the President's authority guaranteed by the constitution," PA Monaragala district former MP Wijithamuni Soysa said.

The JVP said the President's move was a timely one aimed at preventing the country being thrown into an abyss by the UNF government. The Presidential move caught many UNF members unawares. Even Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was spending the weekend at Bentota, did not think that it would happen so soon.

Joseph Michael Perera, Speaker of the dissolved parliament said: "This is a total surprise. Last week she was talking of carrying forward the Mano-Malik talks and a few days later she dissolved Parliament," Mr.Perera said. (See box story.)

It was on August 20,2002 that Mr. Perera as the Speaker read out to the House a letter dated August 16, 2002 the President had sent him. The opening lines of the letter were: "Under Article 32 (3) of the Constitution, I am sending you herewith the attached message concerning the exercise of the power vested in the President of the Republic to dissolve Parliament, with the request that it be read out by you at the sitting of Parliament on Tuesday 20th August, 2002."

The President’s message in which she vowed not to dissolve Parliament as long as the Prime Minister and his party commanded the support of the majority in the legislature, has, since the dissolution, been hotly debated.

In hindsight, it appears now that when the UNF was carrying on with day-to-day governmental affairs in spite of the President's wing-clipping actions including the takeover of the Development Lotteries Board and three key ministries, a section of the opposition in cahoots with the JVP was scheming the downfall of the UNF government.

The UNF was hit by salvo after salvo from the opposition camp. The dissolution coincided with the swearing-in of two PA members - Lakshman Kadirgamar and D. M. Jayaratne - as ministers. Then came the Presidential decree announcing the formal removal of Deputy ministers and non-Cabinet Ministers from their posts. Along with their positions, they lost all their perks as well.

Upcountry People's Front leader P. Chandrasekeran was one such minister. An angry Mr. Chandrasekeran said the President had no moral right to sack a government, which was elected to office for six years by the people.

Describing the President's move as a political witch-hunt, Mr. Chandrasekeran, whose party has decided to continue its alliance with the UNF, said the President during the last general election campaign allowed the PA ministers and deputy ministers to continue in office. Her action smacks of double standards, the UPF leader said.

With the dissolution of Parliament, all unfinished business of the legislature also lapsed. All parliamentary committees, including the select committee on electoral reforms, will be reconstituted after the election. The preliminary report on electoral reforms was submitted to the House a few weeks before the dissolution.

Ironically, the last Bill -- the Provincial Councils Elections (Amendment) Act -- was passed unanimously by members of all parties on February 3. Under the new act, provincial elections will be held on a Saturday and the present number of members in each council will remain.

The Bill was certified by the Speaker prior to the dissolution, and therefore, it has become law. With the announcement of new elections, horse-trading has also begun among political parties and politicians amid crossovers and crosscurrents.

The first to cross the line was PA's former Gampaha district MP Atula Nimalasiri Jayasinghe who joined the UNF on Thursday. Meanwhile, the international community has also expressed concern over the recent political developments, which have added to the uncertainty surrounding the peace process.

Mark Ward, the US Deputy Assistant Administrator for USAID said on Friday that the political crisis was putting in jeopardy the international support needed to rebuild the country (see box story.)

Many diplomats have voiced concern that the instability could affect the peace process and even the ceasefire agreement, which completes two years next week.

With weary voters being forced to seek solace in the ballot paper once again, whether fresh elections alone will bring about political stability to Sri Lanka is highly questionable.

DM's super six
People's Alliance General Secretary D M Jayaratne, who is staking a claim for the prime ministerial candidate of the United People's Freedom Alliance, justifies the dissolution of parliament, citing six factors.They are:·

=The deadlock in the Mano-Malik talks: Both the Government and the Opposition agreed that the political situation which arose after November 4, 2003 has to be discussed. The Prime Minister too agreed to solve this problem through negotiation it is for this purpose that representatives from both parties were appointed. However several Government members were against this move, they did not want the Prime Minister to hold discussions with the President, so the talks were heading no where, which affected the peace process.

=Demand for defence: The Prime Minister was insisting that the defence portfolio be given back to the UNF. This was something the President could not do. Even the Supreme Court gave a ruling that the President has ultimate authority over defence. There was no way she could give back the ministry. The Government insisted that the entire portfolio be given back. The Government was delaying in sending a response to the President's proposal for a compromise.

Threat to security of the country: The LTTE was strengthening its military wing. It was bringing in arms and expanding its influence in the Eastern Province, including the government-controlled areas.

Unrest in the country: We feared the strikes and protests against the government would lead to a country-wide uprising. The oppressed will take to arms which will have a great impact on the country.

The spiralling cost of living: The Government was virtually doing nothing to curtail the increasing cost of living and remove the burden on the people.

The right opportunity: We thought that the time had come to tell the people that we were prepared to solve their problems and it was time for a change of government.

Economic fallout
The UNF-dominated caretaker government has warned of the potential economic fallout of the sudden dissolution of Parliament.

Cabinet spokesman G. L. Peiris said that the World Bank had offered a US$ 51 million loan to develop Hambantota and Moneragala districts but there was doubt now as to the release of the money because of the political instability in the country.

Prof. Peiris said the country might not be able to get the full monetary benefits at the February 17 Washington Donor meeting. The minister's pessimism was backed by World Bank country representative Peter Harrold's claim that at least US$ 176 million in aid could be held up as a result of the dissolution.

Meanwhile Plantation Industries Ministry sources said that the country had lost an opportunity to sell Rs. 160 million worth of tea to Thailand because that country, pointing to the dissolution, had deferred the signing of a bilateral free trade agreement.

The agreement would have guaranteed a quota for 125 metric tonnes of tea exports to Thailand. The Thai government had agreed to give tax concessions and a quota for Sri Lankan tea following Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's visit to Sri Lanka last year.

Meanwhile, a study carried out by The Sunday Times' business section Financial Times on Sunday, has revealed that the country had spent Rs. 45 billion for five national elections since 1999 in terms of government expenditure and campaign costs.

Speaker surprised
Former Speaker Joseph Michael Perera was among those who were caught unawares by the President's decision to dissolve Parliament. Although often referred to as the custodian of the rights and privileges of Members of Parliament (MPs), the former speaker too was surprised by the move and had no prior knowledge of it.

"The President had given a written assurance to the House that she would not dissolve it. On Independence Day she told me that the Mano-Malik talks should continue, so none of us expected this outcome," Mr.Perera said.

He recalled that the President had sent a written assurance to Parliament in August 2002 to squash rumours of an impending dissolution at that time. The former speaker who continues as the Chairman of the Constitutional Council also said the act of appointing two ministers to the Cabinet without consulting the Prime Minister was unacceptable in a democratic system.

Mr.Perera who will be seeking re-election from the Gampaha district said charges in the state run media that he was abusing vehicles was untrue and politically motivated.

Blow to refugee rehabilitation
The UNHCR on Friday warned that the decision to call snap Parliamentary elections could seriously slow efforts to resettle thousands of refugees in the north and east of the country.

Jean-Marc Boulgaris, head of the executive committee of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said they were worried about the political crisis as it could affect the programme to resettle the internally displaced people.

He said that the political crisis would have an impact on the international community investing in programmes that are connected with the resettlement. He said that the immediate needs of the 380,000 displaced persons should not be neglected due to the political crisis.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesighe lashed out at President Chandrika Kumaratunga, accusing her of seriously jeopardising the peace process by crippling the rehabilitation work.

The Prime Minister in a tough letter to the President, said the removal of non-Cabinet and deputy ministers would prevent the provision of urgently needed rehabilitation and reconstruction assistance to the north-east.

The Premier said:"Without prior consultation with me you have removed from office the Deputy Ministers and Ministers of non-Cabinet rank including Rehabilitation Minister Jayalath Jayawardena; Minister Assisting Vanni Rehabilitation Noordeen Mashoor, and Hindu Religious Affairs Minister T. Maheswaran.

"These are three key ministries providing urgent relief and humanitarian assistance and short-term rehabilitation activities for the people of the North-East."

Presidential media director Janadasa Peiris rejected the Prime Minister's claim, pointing out an LTTE statement to the effect that the ceasefire agreement would stand irrespective of the political crisis in the south.

Polls take toll on AL students
By Nalaka Nonis
The current political developments in the country which has led to the postponement of the Advanced Level Exam to May 6, could curtail the number of academic days drastically for this year , an official for the Ministry of Education said.

The Advanced Level exam was initially scheduled for April 2, but the Education Ministry was compelled to postpone it by more than a month after the parliamentary elections were fixed for the same day. The official said the upcoming Sinhala- Tamil New Year, Wayamba Provincial Council Election and Vesak Poya Day, further delayed the rescheduling of the exam.

"The number of academic days a year is about 210 but it is doubtful whether even 180 academic days will be covered this year," the official said. University admissions are also expected to be delayed further because of the postponement of exams. The reason for scheduling the A Levels from August to April was to pave the way for students to start their university studies much earlier. But there will be delays in university admissions this year due to the political climate, he said.

Though Saturdays will be used to make up for the holidays, parents and students complain this would mean missing out on tuition classes. The postponement of the exam might take students off the track and trend while they will be compelled to attend tuition classes during the recess, parents and students complain.

Seeing stars
Astrology seems to have played a major role once again in the decision to go for fresh elections. Predictions in an astrological newspaper on an imminent fall of the government once again highlighted the nexus between politicians and their astrological beliefs.

From the signing on the dotted line to form an Alliance between the SLFP and the JVP upto the time for the dissolution of the Parliament and the fixing of a date for fresh elections, the planetary positions have apparently played an important role.

Priyantha Ratnayake, Editor of the Ira-Handa newspaper has been among those who have been advising top politicians on how the planetary positions would affect them. His newspaper in its February 4, issue screamed in bold headlines that the time was up for the UNF government. In the following week’s issue it predicted that a new government would be in place before the Sinhala New year.

Mr. Ratnayake said February 7, was the right time for dissolution and April 2 for elections, as both were favourable days for President Kumaratunga according to her horoscope. He said the favourable period for the President would have ended by April 19, and hence action was needed prior to that.

Apparently when S.W.R.D.Bandaranaike came to power in 1956 in an election held on April 5, the planetary positions had been similar to what they are today, hence heralding a favourable time for alliances.

Mr.Ratnayake said most politicians were strong believers in astrology, even though they did not admit it publicly. But in the grip of an election, many were seeking predictions on their prospects in the upcoming election.

Mr. Ratnayake was embroiled in a controversy prior to the 2001 general election when one of the astrologers working for his paper claimed he had been forced to predict a victory for the PA at that election. Mr.Ratnayake denied the charge.

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