Politics: A long winding road and the route ahead
The Sikhs fought for a separate state of Khalistan. Sikh separatists killed Indira Gandhi, daughter of India's first Prime Minister Jahwahral Nehru. But Khalsitan was never to be.

Every country has its catharsis, and for some it can come in the form of separatist movements which are the cause for what are soon labelled by the headline hungry international media as "civil wars."

The question here, with a week to go for a crucial election in this country, is whether Sri Lanka's "civil war'' is over? I wouldn't call it a civil war and most people who know the nature of the conflict would not. But what we all know as a long hemorrhaging conflict in Sri Lanka is perhaps at an end.

Despite the fact that there never was a negotiated settlement to the Sri Lankan conflict, there are reasons to believe that this 'war' has had its time-run. This is not necessarily because there is a schism within the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

The schism is probably only one symptom of it. But, there may be reason to believe that the psychological conditions for Tamil separatism are now non-existent.

This dos not mean that the LTTE has been routed. That will be an uncharitable view that does not take into account the objective reality. On the contrary, the LTTE may have achieved what it sought to achieve in the first place.

Let me explain:
A separate state is a rhetorical position. If the LTTE achieved its objective of establishing a separate state, that would have been in the unlikely scenario of the movement surpassing its wildest dreams in terms of realizing its objectives.

Then the next assumption is that the LTTE may have been fighting for federalism, or at least a unit that connotes separate administration of "Tamil majority areas.'' In other words, it is assumed that if the LTTE cannot achieve its rhetorical objective of establishing separate state, it will have to settle for second best, climb one notch down, and accept a "Federal solution'' wherein the LTTE accepts substantial devolution of power for Tamil dominated areas.

But it's not necessarily correct that an organization such as the LTTE will settle for devolution that connotes some kind of subordination to the larger Sri Lankan entity. Federalism to some extent means that Tamils in the Tamil majority areas will be in collaboration with the Sri Lankan state.

What has happened after over 20 years of conflict may be of a different dimension and character. The LTTE has brought the Tamil people to a position in which they cannot be subordinated anymore, either by direct intervention from the Sri Lankan centre, or by being an equal partner in a loose federal arrangement.

What has happened after 20 years of conflict is that it has changed the way the communities relate to each other in the country. In the North and East of the country, the Tamil majority has entrenched themselves as the dominant power with or without a Federal power sharing arrangement, to the point where a Federal structure will be superfluous. Internationally, the Tamil minority has won its insurance policy against any possible incursion by the Sri Lankan state or its forces. If that's the bottom line reality, why sweat for a separate state, or a superfluous federal arrangement?

An unrelenting campaign for separatism from this point on will only disturb this position that has been won by several hard years of armed confrontation. The Diaspora is now disengaged particularly after Karuna's rebellion within a rebellion. The Karuna factor itself is an indication that the movement could self-destruct if it's pushed to the limits. There are also the other psychological considerations that involve leadership. Prabhakaran is not in an unassailable position, but for a leader of a movement that has been banned in most Western countries, he has garnered for himself a measure of respect as a man administering a territory. He is at a time in his life when his vision of where he wants to take the Sri Lankan Tamil community has changed.

Maybe it is too early to predict the exact trajectory of the conflict in the future - maybe it is indeed even too early to say that it is at end. But, it is also time to discern that the writing is on the wall that the conflict is probably at an end. Its time-run is exhausted. It will morph into something more manageable, precisely because its authors - Prabhakaran most importantly - - want to consolidate their gains, and be seen as men who brought 'respectability' to the Tamils as the dominant force in the North and the East.

If this is true, it will impinge on the way Sri Lankan politics plays out in the near future. It will probably not be 'peace' or peace talks that will be of paramount importance in the foreseeable few years. On the contrary it will be politics, particularly Tamil politics and the amount of development and economic consolidation that any government in the South can parley to the North and the East and the rest of the country…..

End-piece:
Having written the epitaph for the Sri Lankn conflict (premature you ask?) the pre election ritual of attempting a prediction is almost felt as a necessary chore. Successful, we have been before in our poll predictions, but this time the chore is almost an embarrassment.

So let it be cryptic. It appears that the Alliance should win, but by how much and whether the victory will be phyrric is all part of the question. By way of electoral majorities, only minor landslides are possible with the system of Proportional Representation. Will such a minor landslide (earthslip?) be forthcoming?

At the time of writing, this does not seem to be impossible. The people have to essentially weigh it as a decision between continuity and change, and the problem with continuity is that it does not offer an alternative to cohabitation. A frustrated electorate may opt for a complete clean up of the stables, meaning that there would be a fresh start for better or for worse.

On this calculation, the Alliance has it. But other arithmetic intervenes. Unless a minor landslide occurs, nagging factors such a where the Tamil votes in parliament will go will of course be germane. Anything can happen, to use the cliché, and the UNF could unsettle the UPFA with luck on its side. But let us be even more cryptic. If a long-standing conflict is at an end, the country can afford overarching change. Whether it might happen or not, only the official results will be telling us.

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