Thoughts from London

Waylaid on the road to peace
In one sense, at least, Belfast, the capital of Northern Ireland and our own northern Jaffna peninsula are in sharp contrast. Belfast, where for 30 years or so Protestants and Catholics have battled it out over continued allegiance to Britain or to join hands with the Irish Republic, shows no outward signs of war.

There are no pockmarked buildings where shells and bullets have taken their toll, unlike in the cultural heartland of the Tamil minority where damaged buildings and mounds of rubble stand as mute sentinels to the ravages of war.

In Belfast, which I visited with a group of London-based journalists, such scars are missing. It may be because our visit did not take us to those parts of the city. Or perhaps whatever signs of battle there were, have been covered up since a ceasefire declaration 10 years and the Good Friday Agreement of April 1998 that have brought relative peace to another war-torn society.

Our own hotel had apparently taken 39 hits from bombs and other missiles at various times during the conflict. But there is nothing to tell of that violent history except the stories that are still told and will continue to be told as long as the hotel exists.

If there are any signs of the collision of wills, they are in the graffiti and slogans that decorate some walls and speak of a society divided sharply by politics and religion. Those slogans are the simple but graphic signs of the deep scars that remain in the hearts and minds of one people who profess different religions.

If this reminds one of Sri Lanka's own divisions - and indeed sectarian conflicts in other countries - it is because society itself is overwhelmingly in support of peace and a return to a time when the lives of ordinary people went on without the hates and fears that have over the years grown to dominate personal relations.

At the November 2003 elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly that is to enjoy large areas of devolved power, 70 per cent of the people voted for the Good Friday Agreement that promises power-sharing and de-escalation of the conflict through surrender of weapons and other means.

There is little doubt that on the ground there is a genuine desire for peace. This was clearly demonstrated in the support for pro-agreement parties from both sides of the religious divide at the election. But there is a rub and that is one reason why one is reminded so much of our own situation and the politics that determines if progress is made towards a settlement or it is stymied and reversed.

Since the early 1920s the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) has been the leading pro-union political group. Yet at the November 2003 election it was superseded by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which is opposed to the Good Friday Agreement that was thrashed out with former US senator John Mitchell playing a prominent role, as the Norwegians did in negotiating up the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the subsequent peace talks.

Quite rightly a spokesman for the DUP told us that this was a "sea-change in Northern Ireland politics". It brought the DUP into the very centre of politics. Why caused this perceptible shift? Here again one sees a commonality between the Northern Ireland situation and our own.

Even the rival UUP admits that opponents of the Good Friday Agreement and perhaps some of those who were not committed either way, concluded that the UUP were making too many concessions to the Republicans as represented by Sinn Fein, led by Gerry Adams and linked in the minds of many-certainly unionists- with the paramilitary organisation, the Provisional IRA.

The change in the name of the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), long identified by Sinn Fein and the IRA as a discriminatory law enforcement organisation and guilty of violence and harassment, and other changes as proposed in the Chris Patten report, has done much to anger unionists who do not want "terrorists" in the government.

The DUP found such changes unacceptable and so did voters who supported the party. It is, of course, similar arguments that have been raised over the last several months at home and led to President Kumaratunga's take-over of the two key ministries connected with security- defence and interior.

Though it is much less than one third of the voters who were apparently convinced that the Ulster Unionists had sacrificed their interests to accommodate Sinn Fein, the DUP has become a central player in the electoral politics of Northern Ireland and could well prove to be the stumbling block in the efforts to take the Good Friday Agreement forward by changes to the agreement or implementing it fully.

Even though the political process has come unstuck right now, there is little doubt that the peace dividend has been economically profitable. The one sure sign of it is that Belfast's nightlife is active and running.

We were told that the streets in and around our hotel where a number of pubs and restaurants are found are attracting customers again. It was not long ago that people hurried home after work and did not linger around out of fear of being caught up in violence.

That is no longer true. Now the tourists are returning in large numbers and this has generated activity in the service industries and is beginning to have its impact on employment.

Youth joblessness has fallen by 5% in the last six years while the number of unemployed decreased by 22,000. Manufacturing is up substantially and GDP growth is estimated at around 3% this year.

Investment has recorded a massive inflow of £575 million in the year beginning April 2002. There is, of course, a downside. Many of the paramilitary groups that have now stopped fighting each other, have taken to crime and drugs which was hardly a problem in the territory, is now emerging as one to be watched .

On the political side, journalists and academics do not expect any positive movement, despite a deadline set by Prime Minister Tony Blair to have things sorted out by June.

Although the IRA has engaged in the de-commissioning of arms on three separate occasions these are seen by unionists as not transparent enough to warrant trust. Unfortunately trust is hard to come by and it would take years before the icy chill in relations begins to thaw.

So it would seem that if the peace process is to move forward, Sinn Fein and the Provisional IRA would have to make some significant moves in order to win over the DUP to reciprocate.

If the DUP does not do so even after such moves by the republican side, then it would be seen as the unionists who are holding up devolution so that Northern Ireland can manage its own internal affairs without tinkering by Westminster.

Some perceptible changes for the good have happened in Northern Ireland. But there is still some distance to go. And the first tentative steps are unlikely to be taken until perhaps October this year, if at all.

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