| Political Column | ||||||
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President and a government from her own party In any hung parliament, which is the likely outcome of the final result, there technically will be several contending factors. Several kingmakers can emerge, and the government that's formed can of course hang on somebody else's whim. But yet the UPFA appears to have a very clear lead in this poll. 108 is their projected seat count at the time of writing. Only a few more coalition partners need to be added on, to reach the 113 required to govern with a reasonable degree of comfort. What's also sure is that there will be a great deal of horse trading to get various parties on board. There are the five MPs in the East, who are loyal to Karuna. If these five support an Alliance government, the TNA-UNF chances of forming a government are almost non-existent. But, on the other hand, the Jathika Hela Urumaya is projected to get something between 7 to 9 seats at the time of writing. This effectively means that the Alliance's better chance of forming a government is with the support of the Buddhist monks in the JHU. At the time of writing, there are already efforts to get these monks on board. Their showing has been phenomenal in the Western province. In electorates such as Kesbewa they have managed to push the UNF into third place. What's almost certain now is that the UNF will not be able to form a government. This did not seem to be the picture at the time the results were trickling in last morning. But then came various intervening factors. It appears that the UNF has got a drubbing in certain districts, even though they have been able to retain the lead in districts such as Badulla. UNF top rungers still maintain that they can form a government with the 22 or so MPs from the Tamil National Alliance. But this certainly is not a portrayal of reality, and they know it. The reality is that the UNF has dropped badly in several different districts, that even in the best-case scenario it is still in difficulty. Already the recriminations have begun. Why the absolutely poor showing in areas such as Kesbewa, and Maharagama where the party is trailing in spite of its considerable urban support base? Wherever the UNF has won its margins of victory are slender; such as in Galagedera where the UNF has got 46 per cent in contrast to the UPFA's 44 per cent. At the time of writing the JHU has also got 6.4 per cent of the popular vote cast in the country. The UNF has got only 37.9 per cent of the All Island cumulative vote - and the UPFA has got 47.2, a considerable lead that can't easily be short circuited by manoeuvring numbers in parliament. This means that the UNF's dip is substantial. The leads are phenomenal for the UPFA in districts such as Matara and Moneragala. The following are the figures for Moneragala for instance: Bibile: UPFA(59.6%) UNP(39.2%) JHU(0.6%) Moneragala: UPFA(60.54%) UNP(35.8%) JHU(1.7%) Wellawaya: UPFA(62.2%) UNP(35.4%) JHU(2.0%). This gives an indication of the level of the UNP's decline in these areas. Though the exact composition of a future Sri Lankan parliament cannot be given with all of the results not returned, what's clear now is the nature of the parliament. It is not just the Buddhist monks who will have a considerable say in calling the shots in this 13th parliament. Leaving the JHU (monks) aside, the CWC and the SLMC for instance, can form a government with the Alliance, thus taking the monks out of the equation as far as the governing party's majority is concerned. The SLMC can end up with 4 seats, and the CWC with 5. The fact is that the SLMC seats and the CWC seats can pretty much fall anywhere, even though previous agreements have been made with the UNF. We have it on authority that there are negotiations to get the CWC on board an Alliance government. This happened early last afternoon. In other words, there are several permutations and combinations that are possible at the time of going to press. For example, it is possible that the UNF together with the 20 TNA candidates will be able to command the allegiance of around 106 MPs in the house while the UPFA will be able to secure 109 or thereabout. But, this is taking so many variables into account. For example, this sort of calculation assumes that the SLMC seats (Hakeem) can be counted upon by the UNF. This also assumes that all seats won by the TNA can be notched up to the UNF. But these are all unlikely variables. In fact, it is almost certain that five of the TNA seats will not be going the UNF's way because of Karuna. But then again, there is the possibility that the party will sack these five MPs if they throw in their lot with a Kumaratunga government. Since there can also be no assumption that Hakeem's five seats will definitely be with the UNF, it does leave for a situation in which any future government can be defeated in a no confidence motion by the shifting of the permutations and the combinations. This will also leave for horse deals in the future, all of which is not going to be good for parliamentary democracy perhaps in the long term. But it makes sense to follow the most likely possibilities. The most certain of them is that Chandrika Kumaratunga will ask her party (Alliance) to form a government in the first instance. It is only in the event of her party being unable to command the majority in parliament that she will have to exercise her second option of asking Ranil Wickremesinghe to form a government. This is now an almost non-existent possibility. But, in exercising her first option, the onus is on her to ensure that she gets the maximum numbers. To this end, she has been pushing for a close link with the monks. She took some pre-emptive action in this regard, by making available for public consumption the footage of a meeting with the late Ven Gangdowila Soma Thera's mother before the elections. As things turn out, this was a footage taken from the archives. Either way, the Jathika Hela Urumaya reiterates that there is no intention on their part of allying with the UPFA. The bad blood between the JVP and the monks was stuff of election legend, especially after Wimal Weerawansa was accused by the leading monks in this combine of planning assassination plots against them. The monks can neither join the UNF, particularly if the UNF is allying with the devil -- which is the LTTE/TNA according to the monks. This however will leave the monks in a position in which they will exercise extraordinary control over the parliamentary proceedings. But yet even that can be avoided if the UPFA allies with the CWC and the SLMC to form a government. If the monks can tilt the balance, they can aggressively advance their agenda, but if the UPFA coalition government has more than 113 without them, there is no fear on that count either. With the UPFA's considerable lead, its chances of governing are not bad after all, considering that a PA government governed for 6 years from 1994 with a one-seat majority! They also enjoy the legitimacy of a big lead. This is the first time under the PR system of voting that the UNF seems to be losing so badly - reduced to perhaps 82 seats, when all counts are taken perhaps later today… SLFP's
future hangs in the balance The Presidential secretariat prepared for an immediate swearing-in on Saturday, but the incoming results signalled a problem in gaining a majority for the alliance, thus forcing the proceedings to be held back. The auspicious day for the swearing-in of the new cabinet has been set for Tuesday. On Friday rumours began to spread across the FA camp that President Kumaratunga had initiated a secret communication hook-up with the deputy leader of the UNF Karu Jayasuriya. This sparked speculation that she was offering him the role of new interim prime minister. The Alliance earlier had settled for minister Lakshman Kadirgamar to be sworn in as the new Prime Minister. While there were a few contenders, including Anura Bandaranaike, Mahinda Rajapakse, Sarath Amunugama and even Susil Premajayantha President Kumaratunga could always turn to him in a time.of crisis, Premajayantha was the unexpected candidate for the secretary of the Freedom Alliance thus preventing a possible standoff between Mahinda Rajapakse and Anura Bandaranaike. This also led to the uncovering of a deep penetrative strike at the politically fragile UNF by the Freedom Alliance. The UNF has an internal division of two camps. Primarily there is the elite pro-Ranil Wickremesinghe brotherhood encompassing hardcore supporters and personal friends of the Prime Minister. The second camp is the more moderate faction, which from beginning of 2001 was not satisfied with its leader's conduct of affairs of state including the peace process. The group included UNF members who were suspected of plotting a possible crossover to the Alliance sometime back. There was speculation that the FA was involved in funding certain campaigns of identified UNF candidates, hoping to make use of them in a worst-case scenario of not getting a majority in parliament and encourage them to carry out an internal revolt within the UNP and against the leadership of Mr. Wickremesinghe. The Alliance managed to amass a huge client base to fund its multi-million rupee election campaign which was said to include individuals who were not on good terms with the President. But it was Mano Tittawella who did a commendable job from the FA camp to muster a huge some of money by tapping resources through his personal links. It is said that even former UNF financiers had put their stakes behind the Alliance. Only individuals who brought in funding of 10 million plus were allowed an opportunity for a personal meeting with President Kumaratunga. In the backdrop of not being able to muster a majority in parliament, the Alliance think members advised an immediate stop to the media offensive against the Bhikku members of Jathika Hela Urumaya. State media institutions were almost ordered not to indulge in criticisms of the yellow-robed candidates. The Alliance hopes to negotiate with the monks through a brother of a multi-millionaire businessman. He has been identified as a possible go-between for the two sides along with a top legal personality. The Freedom Alliance approached the election campaign more strategically than the UNF, by raising, rather than the issue of the national question, the poor governance record of the UNP government. This was to get into the good books of the LTTE. The UPFA adopted a policy in their election campaign to attack the LTTE very lightly. The Tigers were a minimalist entity in the whole UPFA campaign. Wimal Weearawansa of the JVP was the only exception, who was heard to attack the tigers. But none of the SLFP candidates directly took on the LTTE. This was seen as a strategic move to approach the Tigers in the event of an alliance victory. In the past few days with the campaign drawing to a close, the SLFP members including the key players who championed the formation of the alliance found the heat generated by the JVP unbearable. The JVP mounted a vigorous campaign in the dying hours leading to the general election. This was a tactical manoeuvre with the objective of securing preferential votes for JVP members, which move seemed to have worked out quite successfully with the red faction being able to lead almost all of the electorates in preferential vote counts ahead of their alliance partner by Saturday. Thus this election may be decisive in not just enabling a change of government but may also decide the whole future of the SLFP. |
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