The Rajpal Abeynayake Column

The Rajpal Abeynayake Column By Rajpal Abeynayake

The UNP's most emphatic defeat in recent times
Has Ranil Wickremesinghe reached the end of the road in his political career? That's not the most important question as far as this country's future is concerned.

But, the answer to this question may also answer several more questions. Ranil Wickremesinghe's political future lies in the balance, after he has led the UNF to what seems to be an emphatic defeat.

In terms of the possibilities under the system of Proportional Representation, the UPFA has scored a big win. True, not all results are out at the time of writing. But of seats officially allocated so far, 47 have gone the way of the Alliance. The UNF gets 32.

On projections made, the UPFA will secure around 108 or 109 seats in the end. Technically, that number also provides for a hung parliament. But, in real terms, the UPFA has almost put paid to Ranil Wickremesinghe's political career. A UNF government, even through the most unlikely of electoral arrangements with coalition partners, will now be untenable. The lead for the UPFA, assuming that the UPFA leads with around 108, and the UNF trails with around 88, is far too glaring for the UNF to attempt a coalition. There will be far too much dissent in the South. It will be tantamount to going against a clear people's mandate in the Sinhala majority areas of the country.

The ethnic polarisation of votes is one distinct factor that shows up in the votes that have been counted at the time of writing. All Sinhala majority areas have had a clear swing towards the Alliance, except in the towns. This technically does not have to mean a thing as far as the alignment of forces in parliament is concerned.

But, it means that the UNF cannot walk away from the reality that it has lost. If this was 1956, and there was a first past the post electoral system in place, we would have been told that there is a revolutionary change of government.

The results are clearly an achievement for the JVP-SLFP forces. Many explanations could be adduced for the success of the Alliance. At least one of them would be the fact that Ranil Wickremesinghe could not offer any effective resistance to the use of Executive power by the President.

The Alliance successfully emasculated and brought down to its knees the UNF government. This may have been by constitutional default -- by clearly unfair means. But it sent the message out to the electorate that the same thing might happen to a Ranil Wickremesinghe government a second time around.

The Alliance successfully created an impression of strength, to which the UNF had a poor counter, except to say "give us back our four years.'' One aspect of the voting may be that it has effectively polarised the electorate on ethnic lines. Minority votes have gone for the UNF - considering that the UNF has won in areas in which there is a considerable minority vote.

But, that does not substantially alter the fact that there is an overwhelming lead for the UPFA which will tempt several minority contenders to throw in their lot with a new UPFA government.

It also appears that many of the disenchanted Sinhalese who usually vote with the UNF, have voted for the new Jathika Hela Urumaya combine. That's significant. Ranil Wickremesinghe has clearly not been able to offer any resistance to the Opposition attacks aimed at him on alienating the Sinhala majority by appeasing the LTTE. The electorate enjoyed the peace but thought that Ranil Wickremesinghe clearly bungled on issues such as Athurugiriya, the murder of army informants etc..

A new government may also have to face the fact that it will have to deal with a disappointed Tiger. The LTTE aimed relentlessly at being the deciding factor in the Sri Lankan parliament. But, with a projected 108, the lead for the Alliance seems to be too severe for any of that.

This will send the Tigers on the guard. Ranil Wickremesinghe, as it is an open secret now in this country, thinks that the UPFA rule will only be in an interregnum, between now and when he runs for President in 2006 and wins.

But it appears particularly from today onward that Ranil Wickremesinghe and the UNF will have to reconsider that calculation. The UPFA is considering a constituent assembly to change the constitution to get rid of the Executive Presidency.

But, Wickremesinghe's rather emphatic loss means that the UNF will not be effectively led, or is not being effectively led. It is true that the mood of the Sri Lankan electorate changes almost with the weather. But even if there is a Presidential election in 2006, can Ranil Wickremesinghe run after this defeat??

How the UNF can go from being a strong force in 2003 November, to being a clear loser in 2004 April is not just a matter of electoral whim. It has to do also with leadership style and substance.

There have been several Cassandras such as Dr Jayadeva Uyangoda who have predicted meanwhile that increasing chaos awaits the Sri Lankan polity, because the leadership elite has not been able to address adequately the most important issue which is the issue of securing a viable peace.

But, this pessimism seems misplaced. The electorate has carried out an effective changing of the guard. Though there will still be a hung parliament, there is enough of clout that's packed into the UPFA victory to enable the Alliance to win friends from all quarters, to change existing parameters and literally embark on a new beginning.

Only the concatenation of forces has changed. The Sri Lankan electorate would not have been truly represented in the UNF government, if the people did not endorse the Western backed peace agenda in its entirety. What emerged was peace, but a peace that did not reflect the reality on the ground. But the UPFA is committed to peace, and the Tigers have already announced that negotiations should begin soon with whichever government is in power.

In which case why the scaremongering?? Nothing frightening has come to pass in these elections -- except perhaps to a certain coterie that saw Ranil Wickremesinghe's way as the only way, for reasons better left unsaid here. Ranil Wickremesinghe may or may not be history, but certainly the chapter he introduced in 2002 is now history. He negotiated the peace successfully -- but it is now someone else's lot to make it a lasting peace.

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