Government vows to stay and dig in to govern
By Our Political Editor
Harry Jayewardene has been appointed Senior Advisor to the President on International Trade and Investment. Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar says meanwhile, at least by implication, that the LTTE is the sole representative of the Tamil people.

With such developments, some would say the shape this government is going to take is becoming clearer. Most political analysts and market watchers are in fact beginning to feel more upbeat and comfortable. Mr. Kadirgamar's statement made in India, has caused more than a mild stir among political observers. Some are already asking what happened to the 'inclusiveness' that has been preached by this government, when its hit-men were attacking the UNF saying Ranil Wickremesinghe's peace process has not been 'inclusive'?

Minister Kadirgamr -- who generally has answers for everything -- has a clear answer for that one. His explanation is that the talks across the table are going to be with the LTTE and nobody else. But, the government will seek maximum "inclusiveness'' outside the process of the talks themselves, by maintaining a dialogue with everybody including the other Tamil parties, and others across the entire political spectrum.

So, does this all mean that suddenly the UPFA has realised "blessed are the peacemakers??'' Peacemakers are blessed, but so are stable governments, and the UPFA knows that. Not only are stable governments blessed but they are a requirement for political survival. The UPFA needs another 5 seats to bridge the gap to obtain the 113 required majority in parliament.

Despite the fact that the Speaker vote was won by the inner skin of their teeth by the Opposition, this 113 can only be obtained by the UPFA, because the opposition just does not have the numbers unless it obtains the permanent support of at least 4 Buddhist monks in parliament which is more or less impossible. So, the bottom line is that the UPFA and only the UPFA can maintain a stable government, but that's only with the help of either the SLMC or the CWC or indeed the TNA - - which represents Prabhakaran's Liberation Tigers.

Since there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics, the peace overtures moving at a rapid pace now are also inexorably tied, in many people's reading, to the government's need to maintain a majority in parliament and rule with a degree of stability.

The peace moves will help the government with the TNA - - and with the SLMC and the CWC. Take the case of the SLMC for example. With the announcement of the government's intent to talk to the Tiger very soon - - and the call to Norway to send in their team of mediators (which has already been done) -- the SLMC's earlier non committal position on allying with the government had to be reconsidered.

Over the past week, there was a flurry of moves that led the SLMC to consider a great many developing situations. One is that the SLMC may lose its considerable large stake in the peace process, if it does not ally with the government. If peace talks begin - - as Minister Kadirgamar promises very soon -- then the SLMC feels the dire need to be there as it has already declared itself the "sole representative of the Muslim people.'' But, if the SLMC is not in government, this of course will not happen. The upshot being that Ferial Ashraff will represent the Eastern province Muslims at these talks, a thought which is anathema to the SLMC's leader, the politically suave Rauff Hakeem. It's known Rauff can get rough when he thinks he is going to be left out.

Therefore, the SLMC's entry into ranks of government is not just a possibility now -- maybe you can call it a probability. The UPFA can also get the help of the TNA to form a government. True, that this will be like the marriage of Velupillai Prabhakarn to Lakshman Kadirgamar, a contradiction in every sense.

But, from the point of view of the LTTE, this will afford them the ideal opportunity to neutralise what is seen as the most "nationalist'' element in the Sri Lankan political scene. The SLFP on the other hand has been a very politically mobile party that sees governing as the art of the possible. Besides, Gunadasa Amarasekera has characterised Chandrika Kumaratunga as a liberal windbag! Good one that! But the windbag part aside, it will not go against her "liberal" streak to form a government with the help of the TNA.

The TNA will extract its prize for any such support granted which of course is the implementation of the ISGA -- the Interim Self Governing Authority for the North and the East. One will remember that a long winded press conference was called soon after the ISGA proposals were announced, in which Mr. Kadrigamar tore apart the LTTE's ISGA proposals in full and shoved the same into the dustbin of history. Now, the government will talk, and probably agree to implement these same ISGA proposals taken out of that dustbin.

If that's the shape of things to come, then how will all this be taken, particularly, by the nationalist JVP which is the coalition partner of Chandrika Kumartunga's SLFP?

The JVPs position as of now is that the party will take a decision on these matters very soon after its leadership convenes this week to deliberate on these issues. The JVP says that no decision will be taken outside the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the SLFP and the JVP to form the UPFA alliance.

But with the JVP and the SLFP too by and large lambasting the Buddhist monks of the JHU over voting with the "Tiger'' TNA, how does the party live with itself with the government warming up to the TNA -- and perhaps getting its support in exchange for the ISGA -- in running a government?

The answer may not be that difficult. The government has a propaganda machine far superior to the UNF. The UNF cannot say boo to a goose -- their political machine cannot counter-attack effectively.

In these circumstances, the JVP and the UPFA are in a position to rationalise anything, even an alliance with the TNA as long as it is with the express intent of forming a stable government. True, the JVP is the more reluctant partner in this deed. The JVPs position right now concerning stability of government is that it can bring in legislation that the opposition cannot refuse to support - - such as anti corruption laws. The true test of government they feel will come with key votes that will take a long time in coming, by which time it can secure better coalition support.

But the SLFP being better versed in these matters, knows stable government is needed today. Theoretically, a no confidence motion can be tabled in parliament the next time the House meets. The government has to be ready. Its position is to have an arrangement with the TNA, the SLMC -- or the devil so to say.

It is also not prepared to listen to the JVP after the JVP effectively lost the Speaker vote. An internal report on the fiasco issued to the President has stated very clearly that it is the JVP that ran the show on this matter getting the support of the renegade monks by giving them refuge etc.,

But the government meanwhile is appealing to the people directly asking for more stability of government through constitutional changes. The President's May Day message says "It is only by changing the electoral system and the constitution that we could build a more democratic system of governance." To this extent the Speaker fiasco has helped the government to show that all the governments are shaky until the constitution is changed.

UPFA to show its hand after PC polls
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
The Freedom Alliance had finally succeeded in breaking the internal deadlock that plagued it from finalising the formation of the new Cabinet. It was the JVP that initiated a telephone call on Monday night to inform President Chandrika Kumaratunga of their willingness to swear in its ministers, thus ending the three week long dispute. Both parties had to play a publicity stunt to end the standoff over the allocations of the Mahaweli ministry without hurting each other's pride.

In President Kumaratunga's words it was a matter of "Prestige" for both parties as neither was willing to budge from their positions. But despite media speculation that a compromise was being worked out there was no apparent reason given.

President Kumaratunga who met the JVP delegation last Monday briefed them of the negative impact of this stand off. She as a compromise offered them two options; the first was Ports Minister Mangala Samaraweera's proposal that one SLFP member to be the Minister of Mahaweli and the JVP to take up the post of deputy minister.

The JVP responded with an outright rejection but her second offer though illusive provided the necessary parameters for both parties to end the deadlock. "I will offer you a Mahaweli Authority where the JVP minister and the SLFP minister for River Basin Development will have equal authority" President Kumaratunga told the JVP delegation.

As both parties were desperate for a compromise realising the damage being caused to the image of the Freedom Alliance, the JVP responded saying that they will get back to the President in the evening after a politburo meeting. It was Wimal Weerawansa who rang the President and broke the good news.

What followed was a one-hour telephone conversation between the JVP Propaganda Secretary and President Kumaratunga. The tone of the President also amazed her inner circle of advisors who were with her at that time. At the end of it President turning to her aides told "How politically mature are these boys? Why don't our people realize it?, In future I will personally handle affairs with the JVP."

Despite the two sides agreeing to reach a settlement none of the JVP or the SLFP members actually knew what the parameters of the proposed 'Mahaweli Authority' or its configuration were. The agreement looked completely vague and by the end it seemed as if neither party had gained anything but the displeasure of the electorate.

While the internal problems of the Alliance were being sorted out one by one President Kumaratunga saw pressure building up from both within her party and the international community requiring her to restart the peace process that had been stalled nearly a year back. It looked as if the future of her government solely depended on it.

Prior to inviting Norway once more as facilitators to restart the peace talks with the LTTE, President Kumaratunga successfully wooed the JVP camp. The Peramuna who once vehemently opposed both Norway and the concept of the peace process as undertaken by the former regime, had to take a strategic decision to enable the FA to continue with the revival of the peace process.

The JVP was realistic in accepting the primacy of the Norway factor in this process while reaching consensus within its ranks to maintain total silence on the issue. The JVP will avoid the issue as far as possible on any platform from general meetings to media debates. But the Freedom Alliance has put its grand plan on hold till after the voting on all provincial councils. Meanwhile the leadership is working on the parliamentary strategies to be pursued by them in future.

The JVP is still of the view that the monk Parliamentarians or the Jathika Hela Urumaya need to be criticised, while attempts to woo the CWC are continued. Meanwhile efforts to build an understanding with the TNA also are being pursued. This is a long-term strategy to neutralize the TNA in parliament making it incapable of opposing Alliance legislation. They have also decided on a covert operation to launch a full-scale attack on SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem in the form of court cases, investigations on bribery and corruption to dislodge him from the leadership of the SLMC.

These measures the Alliance believes will allow it to entice an SLMC minus Hakeem to join them. A heated debate on the issue of morality seems to be growing following the election of speaker. "Is JHU actions justifiable in exercising its vote to neutralize its own dissident vote", is one of the questions being posed.

As a battle raged over a multitude of issues on electronic channels and in the print media the current Sri Lankan political scenario projects a battle between two extremes. It's JHU vs JVP and no more SLFP vs UNP battles to the local audience. The SLFP and UNP does not realize or want to admit that it's the hardcore elements that foster public opinion today, thus projecting a picture of the downfall of moderate politics and its politicians in the country.

The FA strategy seems to be a total isolation of the JHU and just keep on criticizing it to keep it out of politics altogether, while the UNP behaves more kindly towards the saffron group. Could the UNP provide a shield to protect them eternally?. As the JHU weakens so will the spirit in the Buddhist community. People may not approve the political actions of the monks but yet they represent the dominant religious ideology of the state.

At a time when the dominance was threatened the Hela Urumaya took up the challenge of being the guardians of an ideology under siege. Anybody may have a political right to attack this group of seven monks, but in the long term the question would be as to how they could achieve their purpose.

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