Raw intelligence sparks bogeys and canards
Most Sri Lankans, or for that matter the outside world, were blissfully unaware of the panic that gripped the highest levels of the country's defence and security establishment last week.

Days ahead of his annual "Maveerar" (Great Heroes) Day address by LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran on November 27, those at the apex were very worried. They believed he would unilaterally declare independence (UDI) and announce the establishment of a separate state of Tamil Eelam. That is in the guerrilla dominated areas of the North and East.

Even to the most dim witted it would have been clear that the LTTE leader was not idiotic to make such a pronouncement in his annual address. That is not to say he has given up his goal of setting up "Tamil Eelam" and thus dividing a united Sri Lanka. To the contrary, he has, like the military preparations during the 35 months of ceasefire reveal, is moving towards that objective.

But he, like his close advisors, is very conscious of the dangerous nuances of making a public declaration. In short, Mr. Prabhakaran would not deliver an open invitation during his address to seek international isolation for the LTTE. How many countries could he expect to recognize the separate state he wants to set up after secession? None, or if at all, one or two one might argue. But how does that help the LTTE?

The fact that such fundamental realities are lost on those responsible for the country's defence and security establishment is shocking enough. Those who rush in to display their patriotic fervour, very often to hide their own inadequacies, might argue this is information to the enemy. But it is no secret. It is the talking point among officers and men. They have even been debating with some discerning civilians who are in the know.

But the larger mass of Sri Lankans who expect this very defence and security establishment to protect them, to ensure their day-to-day lives are not disrupted so they could live in peace are blissfully unaware. Furthermore, it is these institutions that are primarily tasked with the responsibility of safeguarding Sri Lanka's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

One senior military official vested with this solemn responsibility was busy last week consulting various security establishments. He was seeking their views on the repercussions the LTTE's UDI move would have. Later, he was busy formulating counter measures needed to deal with the situation.

If reports of an impending UDI move were correct, the actions of this top defence official could be clearly understandable. But common sense factors make very clear it is illogical for the LTTE to resort to such a move at this juncture. Ironic enough, faulty intelligence and the knee jerk reactions that follow, it is becoming increasingly clear, are all too common now. That it does not help national security interests or the Sri Lankan public is to say it mildly.

It is not only the bogey of an LTTE UDI declaration that caused panic. Just days ahead of the "Maveerar Day" speech, there was more. One intelligence report spoke about hundreds of Tiger guerrilla fighting cadres from the Wanni arriving in Vavuniya to carry out an attack that night on security installations. This came from a lesser known state intelligence arm. The same outfit also warned in a separate report that armed guerrilla cadres were arriving in Mannar from Wanni to attack security installations there. That was also going to be on the same night. What followed was more panic.

Are some intelligence agencies falling victim to Tiger guerrilla psy ops? Or are some of them banking on undependable sources? One may never know the answers since no one seems to be in overall control of the intelligence community. The result – raw intelligence fed down the line is being lapped up at the highest levels without any study, verification, assessment or analysis. The result appears to be national embarrassment.

The fact that intelligence reports have been causing concern for the UPFA leadership became clear in the recent weeks. This was after claims by President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, in newspaper and television interviews that LTTE's Sea Tiger "special commander" Thillaiyampalam Sivanesan, better known as Soosai, who flew with Government help to Singapore, did not undergo medical treatment there.

The Sunday Times (Situation Report - November 21) revealed how Soosai went to a leading Singapore hospital on two occasions escorted by intelligence officers of that country and Norwegian Embassy officials there. On the first occasion he consulted a surgeon and on the second, an orthopaedic specialist who prescribed medication. And now, the Royal Norwegian Government which intervened on this matter at the request of the LTTE, has countered all the claims by providing documentary evidence, substantiated by Singapore authorities, that Soosai did undergo medical treatment. That is not all. They have provided proof that Soosai did not meet any outside party during his stay in Singapore.

Yet, at security conferences last week, a representative of the Government's external intelligence arm insisted that Soosai went to Singapore for purposes other than medical reasons. If he is right, it is nothing but correct for the UPFA Government to promote, decorate and reward him handsomely for his singularly outstanding contributions. After all, leave alone The Sunday Times, he has proved two sovereign governments, Norway and Singapore, wrong. On the other hand, if he is wrong, he and the others responsible for the canard would have to be taken to task for embarrassing none other than President Kumaratunga.

This is not a difficult job for the Government to ascertain. If the claims of Norway and Singapore are in doubt, the facts could be easily verified. That is directly from the Singapore Government through diplomatic channels. It is known that Singapore authorities have in the past operated closely in the field of intelligence co-operation with Sri Lanka. But accountability has been a weak point for successive Governments in Sri Lanka. Hence one cannot expect too much. The danger of being misled again and again therefore remains.

It is in this highly disconcerting backdrop that UPFA leaders, the defence and security establishment in Sri Lanka learnt the unexpected on the evening of Saturday, November 27 – an ultimatum from Mr. Prabhakaran.

He declared during his "Maveerar Day" speech: "We urge the Government to resume the peace negotiations without conditions, based on our proposal for an Interim Self-governing Authority. If the Government of Sri Lanka rejects our urgent appeal and adopts delaying tactics, perpetuating the suffering of our people, we have no alternative other than to advance the freedom struggle of our nation.....

If Mr. Prabhakaran was more veiled in his comments making only references to "advance the freedom struggle," the man who drafts his "Maveerar Day" speeches, his confidante Anton Stanislaus Balasingham was not. Unlike the previous years, he addressed LTTE supporters in Europe at a meeting in the sprawling ExCel, London's new state-of-the art events venue also on November 27. There was an estimated crowd of 18,000.

Mr. Balasingham who amplified his leader's speech in the Wanni declared "This situation cannot continue any more, tolerance is enough and now we are ready for war. This is a warning to those who were thinking that Tigers have been weakened, controversies have begun in the organization and they are unable to retaliate." If Mr. Prabhakaran did not say it pointedly referring only to "advance the freedom struggle," his confidante and his chief peace negotiator, Mr. Balasingham has now declared they would go to war if his leader's urgent request for ISGA is rejected. SEE BOX STORY ON THIS PAGE FOR EDITED EXCERPTS OF MR BALASINGHAM'S SPEECH IN TAMIL. IN THIS HE ARGUES WHY A WAR HAS BECOME INEVITABLE.

Both Mr. Prabhakaran and Mr. Balasingham have proved how wrong Sri Lankan political leaders have been every time they began talking peace with the LTTE. The latest additions - former Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe who signed a Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) with the LTTE. The other is President Kumaratunga, who criticized the CFA bitterly but chose to continue the peace process from where Mr Wickremesinghe's United National Front (UNF) left out. Both made public pronouncements repeatedly after the ceasefire that Tiger guerrillas will not resort to war. Both Mr. Prabhakaran and Mr. Balasingham have now proved how wrong they were. This is with their public declaration to go to war if their demand for ISGA is not granted.

Mr. Balasingham quoted to the London audience what his leader Mr. Prabhakaran told him during the meeting in Wanni last month. He said "Brother Bala, this situation cannot continue forever like this. This will weaken our freedom struggle and ultimately it will fade away. Here we are with all our might and no one can do anything to us. There were a few skirmishes and everything is under control now. We are in a very strong position and prepared for anything. Therefore we cannot continue this time. We are in a very strong position and prepared for anything…."

Added Mr. Balasingham: "We have already established a state. We have a Government of our own. We have an army which is equivalent to the Sinhala Army and a navy, police administration, justice system and all the infrastructure of a state and we are conducting a government there."

The confessions of Mr. Balasingham in London are interesting indeed. He confirms that the LTTE is "in a very strong position and prepared for anything." How did this happen? Is this not public confirmation that that LTTE has now built a strong military machine? It became possible first during the tenure of the former UNF Government. The period of the ceasefire was used to smuggle in state-of-the-art military hardware. Recruitment including induction of child soldiers was stepped up. The Sea Tigers received new boats built in a yard in an Asian country. "Police Stations" were opened in many areas in the Wanni and later in the East. "Law Courts" were set up and tax collection machinery was established. The UNF Government gave them a powerful broadcasting transmitter and V-Sat equipment to communicate without being intercepted.

An "administrative service" was introduced in the Wanni. When these matters were highlighted periodically in The Sunday Times, the writer was branded as an anti- peace element. A vituperative campaign was launched. There were threats to intimidate the writer with exposures in Parliament and force him to "toe the line." And now what they tried to cover up through these coercive measures has failed. The LTTE confirms publicly what has been going on. The whole world now knows the truth.

Whilst talking peace, the LTTE adhering to the well known Maoist dictum, had been preparing for war. What of the UNF and the UPFA Governments? They seemed reluctant for fear of offending the Tiger guerrillas.

At that time President Kumaratunga was the bitterest critic of how the UNF Government's neglect of national interests endangered national security. So much so, on November 4, 2003, she took over the Defence, Interior and Mass Communication portfolios. It was on the grounds that national security was fast deteriorating and prompt remedial action was necessary. But little or nothing seems to have been done. The result has been a worsening of the level of military preparedness to deal with a contingency not to mention the status of state intelligence agencies.

For obvious reasons one cannot catalogue all the contributory factors. But some measures, adopted evidently on the assumption that a ceasefire had led to the arrival of permanent peace, can be revealed. One is the decision to select the best fighting elements in the Army, put them together as a battalion and send them on UN peace keeping operations in Haiti. The process is continuing with more fighting elements being picked for training at the Army's Peace Keeping Training Centre in Kukuleganga in the Kalutara district. The ongoing process, no doubt, will see a drain of best fighting elements over the years.

The officers and men trained at tax payer's expense to meet urgent manpower needs in the security establishment have been sent abroad to earn foreign exchange. Another argument is that they should be given foreign exposure. This is at a time when foreign governments who are spearheading the war on terror have offered both equipment and training to troops in their home country. The latest to seek opportunities in overseas peace keeping efforts is the Sri Lanka Navy. A British military team was in Sri Lanka to make a full study of their role as a prelude to offering assistance.

Rapid recruitment prompted by manpower needs also led subsequently to large scale desertions. However, in marked contrast to other countries, periodic amnesties were offered to deserters, some of them who absconded three and four times. Recently the deserters have been given the option to quit the service thus bringing strengths down further. In view of relative peace conditions, the problems caused by short strength have not been severe. However, in the event of a contingency, the lack of strength to effectively hold areas becomes a serious problem. This has been the subject of regular complaints in the past from field commanders and their seniors. Adding to this are a variety of equipment shortages, lack of spares and inadequate transport facilities. All these clearly show that successive Governments have not had a national plan or a national strategy ever since the ceasefire. Hence ad hoc measures have become the order of the day.

Just a day after Mr Prabhakaran's "Maveerar Day" speech, President Kumaratunga tasked the Army's outgoing Chief of Staff, Major General Chula Seneviratne to make a complete study. He was told to seek the help of representatives of state intelligence agencies to determine how remarks in the speech impacted on national security and the threats it posed. Maj. Gen. Seneviratne goes on retirement on Thursday when he will reach 55 years. He will be succeeded by Major General Sarath Fonseka as Chief of Staff.

This was whilst the UPFA Government took the hitherto unprecedented step of officially reacting to Mr. Prabhakaran's speech this year. A Government Information Department news release on Wednesday rejected Mr. Prabhakaran's ultimatum. It said: "A call, couched in threatening language, from the LTTE now for a resumption of negotiations without conditions, while setting conditions itself by insisting unilaterally on a single agenda item is scarcely conducive to good faith negotiations."

The statement added: "The Government of Sri Lanka has conveyed publicly, and through the kind facilitation of the Royal Norwegian Government, its readiness to discuss the establishment of an interim authority to meet the urgent humanitarian and development needs of the people of the North and East as a priority, while exploring a permanent settlement along the lines of the document signed and accepted by the Government and the LTTE in Oslo on December 5, 2002…."

Even before Mr. Prabhakaran's speech, the UPFA Government offered to establish "an interim authority" but not the ISGA demanded by Tiger guerrillas. The offer was conditional on exploring a permanent settlement "founded on the principle of internal self-determination in areas of historical habitation of the Tamil-speaking peoples, based on a federal structure within a united Sri Lanka." Already the LTTE has rejected this assertion.

Last Thursday, on a visit to Kilinochchi, Norway's Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Hans Brattskar talked to Political Wing leader, S.P. Tamilselvan. The 75 minute discussion, a prelude to Mr. Brattaskar's impending home leave in Norway, centered on developments since Mr. Prabhakaran's "Maveerar Day" speech and the subsequent official response from the Government. A follow up discussion is expected only when Special Envoy Erik Solheim arrives in Colombo on December 13. He is to meet both Government and LTTE leaders.

At least now, the battle lines have been clearly defined with the LTTE and the Government stating their respective positions. They are no doubt irreconcilable. The LTTE says its ISGA or war. The Government, which once declared the LTTE will not go to war, says it will grant only an "interim authority" whilst exploring a permanent settlement. What next remains the most crucial question.

LTTE ready for war, says Balasingham
Anton Stanislaus Balasingham is Chief Negotiator of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the ongoing peace process with two successive Sri Lankan Governments - the former United National Front (UNF) and the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA).

Ideologue and close confidante of Tiger guerrilla leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, he is known to be the author of Mr Prabhakaran's annual "Maveerar" (Great Heroes) Day speeches. In the past years, his drafts were transmitted from London to the Wanni.

This year, Mr Balasingham was given the outlines for a speech personally by Political Wing leader, S.P. Thamilselvan during a meeting in Geneva last month. There was no need for the transmission of his draft this time.

Mr Balasingham was called to the Wanni by Mr. Prabhakaran last month. He was on hand for talks his leader had with the high powered team of Norwegian peace facilitators led by Foreign Minister, Jan Petersen. He brought along with him the draft speech and discussed its contents in detail with his leader.

It has been the practice of Mr. Balasingham to deliver his own speech at "Maveerar Day" observances in the United Kingdom. Usually the event was held days after Mr. Prabhakaran had delivered his speech on November 27. But this time, it took place on the same day at ExCel, London's new state-of-the-art events venue in the Docklands. It boasts of 65,000 square metres of column free exhibition space and conference facilities. An estimated 18,000 attended the event last week.

Here are edited excerpts of Mr. Balasingham's lengthy speech in which he argues why a resumption of the separatist war has become inevitable: "This situation cannot continue any more, tolerance is enough and now we are ready for war. This is a warning to those who were thinking that Tigers have been weakened, controversies have begun in the organization and they are unable to retaliate. Our leader has given the government the final opportunity - have talks on our proposal for an Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA). If this urgent request is rejected and the situation continues to drag on, he has said, we would begin our freedom struggle.

"Before I returned to London someone asked me whether fighting is to resume, as is apparent from our leader's address. I replied that it is our profession and we have to do it. I was in Colombo recently en route to meet the leader in the Wanni. I observed one thing. Things are not the same as they were. We used to be accorded a good reception and treated with respect then.

"We were given special treatment. There was no such thing this time. We were not allowed to stay in the VIP lounge. We were kept in a separate room for one hour. It took half an hour for the helicopter to take off and finally we managed to get off the ground. Hereafter I thought I will not take a copter but go by a bullock cart.

"I normally give explanations to my leader's address. This time he has conveyed a very important message. I want to explain to you what he said, with what objective and what he proposes to do. In the first place our leader says that we, that means our people are living in a political vacuum where there is neither war nor peace, neither normalcy nor interim settlement. There is no permanent solution or settlement to the ethnic problem. Such a vacuum situation cannot continue forever.

"Either we must talk or we must fight. But the situation in Sri Lanka's south is okay. Sinhalese are living happily. But our people are continuing to suffer in refugee camps. It makes our fighters to question this situation. How is it possible to allow this situation to continue? Two weeks ago in the Wanni, I had a long discussion with the leader. He told me "Brother Bala, this situation cannot continue forever like this. This will weaken our freedom struggle and ultimately it will fade away. Here we are with all our might and no one can do anything to us. There were a few skirmishes and everything is under control now. We are in a very strong position and prepared for anything. Therefore we cannot continue this time.

"Our leader said this not only to me but also to the Norwegian Foreign Minister (Jan Petersen) who visited Kilinochchi. Three years have lapsed since our organization agreed to a ceasefire. This was after a massive war. It has gone on for 30 years and cost about 18,000 of our fighters. We suspended the war and maintained peace. It is because of the pressure from the international community. They said they are prepared to give any amount of money to re-build areas devastated by war.

"They told us to continue to have talks, restore normalcy and help the suffering people. So we agreed to it. It was I who led our team for the talks. They went on for six months and were held in different capitals of the world. We had discussions with the then Ranil Wickremasinghe Government. As far as Ranil is concerned, he has neither political power nor financial resources.

"The power of political administration is in the hands of Madam (President Kumaratunga). We just sat at the table and had discussions. We appointed sub committees to deal with each problem. That was a means to reduce the climate of war and create normalcy. There was a sub committee for rehabilitation and reconstruction. We kept on having sub committees for six months but none of them functioned properly. All had a gradual death.

"The leader called me. He asked "What is this Bala. You are going for talks and appointing sub committees. They are not functioning sensibly and people are continuing to suffer. They have no financial allocations. It is said that 4.5 billion US dollars had been pledged but we are not getting even ten rupees here. What is this gamble? Therefore let us suspend the talks. We will not altogether stop it. Let us suspend it and later ask for an interim administration. Let us establish this interim administration and make use of the funds donated by the world countries or what is necessary for our people. Give our people a sensible rehabilitation and reconstruction."

"Accordingly we suspended talks and asked Ranil that an interim administrative infrastructure be set up. We wanted him to offer suggestions. Ranil gave us three different drafts. They did not contain any sensible administrative power and we could not do anything with those proposals. Our leader said if we keep on rejecting the world may think we are deliberately doing so. He said let us prepare one and submit to them. It was only after that we asked our political theorists, law makers and constitutional experts living abroad.

"We prepared the ISGA proposals. We gave it to Ranil in November, last year. What did he do? He said "OK, let us have talks on this basis" On the fourth day after we submitted the proposal, madam Chandrika suddenly took over three important ministries from Ranil's Government . Of them Defence and Interior are important. The Ranil Government became powerless. Then Madam dissolved parliament, held elections and somehow defeated Ranil and his party.

"In the south for the first time real Sinhala chauvinist forces and the Sinhala racists captured power. What happened in Tamil Eelam? For the first time, people supported overwhelmingly the LTTE . People elected 22 MPs of the TNA which accepted the LTTE as the sole representative of the Tamils. That means when Sinhala racism took upper hand in the South, Tamil nationalism gained in Tamil Eelam. This is what our leader is saying in his statement. So what has happened in this election is that the Sinhala and Tamil nations have become two different countries.

"The ISGA proposals put forward by the LTTE has received a full mandate and the support of the Tamil people at the last elections. Even now we ask Madam to begin talks based on the ISGA. Why should talks be held? The donor countries of the world are having enormous funds and demand that we cannot go for war again. They say go for peace talks. They say they will provide enormous amount of financial assistance. Otherwise, they say, we will not give you a cent. Madam is having such crucial pressure.

"At the same time Madam has spoken to the UN. First in the US, then in India and now in Iran she is pretending as an angel of peace to the whole world. She knows that the country is facing a massive economic crisis. Therefore in order to solve this multi cornered crisis talks have to be held with the LTTE. But this communist, the JVP devil is not allowing her to do so. For this she has discovered a new way. It is to have talks on a permanent settlement along with the interim administration. This is a wonderful condition. We wanted an interim administration to get some funds and give it to our people.

"As our leader says, Chandrika does not have either an Interim administration proposal nor a final settlement. She had a plan in 2000 for constitutional reform. She wants to do away with the present executive presidency and become executive Prime Minister. Our leader wants the ISGA in Tamil Eelam to serve our people. This is the reality in our country.

"The Army is embarrassing and harassing the people who want to celebrate the “martyrs day”. We have seen the suffering of the people in the Wanni. Our people in Jaffna refugee camps are unable to get back. They undergo all types of suffering. The people are in a furious mood. Tolerance is enough. The environment is for a war. We have been asking for equal rights. We ask for language rights, we ask for a regional government and all that. We began a federation 50 years ago, so a federation is nothing new as it is an old problem.

"We (LTTE) are not a political party. It is not like the former Federal party or a coalition. We cannot go and beg with the Sinhalese. We have already established a state. We have a government of our own. We have an army which is equivalent to the Sinhala army and a navy, police administration, justice system and all the infra structure of a state and we are conducting a government there. We have already a permanent state. We are asking for an interim administration only for us to be recognized internationally.

"Our leader is telling another important thing. Whether it is the UNP, JVP, Hela Urumaya, any leftist party or as a matter of fact anyone else, what complete settlement do they have to give the Tamil people? They have no programme at all. We have given it in writing. Our leader is asking how to talk when she has no programme. North and East are homeland of the Tamils. We are saying this while embracing the Muslims.

"We have the right to determine our fate, our arts, culture and economy too. It is a right approved by the UN. A community has a right to form a government of their own. If necessary we can live with the Sinhalese or segregate and form a separate state of Eelam. Tamils have three basic rights - Tamil nationalism, homeland and self determination. Our leader is asking whether any Sinhala party is approving these three rights. One important subject is coming out of the leader's statement.

There is division and controversy among the Sinhala political movements. They have the racist thought that Tamils should not be given any rights. How can we talk with people having such thoughts and find a settlement?

"Our leader is making a request to accept the ISGA without any conditions and come for talks. If you do come in that fashion we can have talks. Do not reject our invitation and drag on this time and cheat us. If you do so, we will begin our struggle. Velupillai Prabhakaran is ready and ready for war. Next move, whether war or peace is in the hands of Madam. But the talks have to be held only on the basis of the proposals we have put forward.

"Otherwise we have no alternative than to take forward our freedom struggle. This is a very important historic stage and we cannot go along like this. We have to achieve our objective. Your force, the people's force is important. It is in our favour. It is in favour of our leadership."

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