Financial Times

Natural disasters: adaptability and mitigation of losses
By Sunil Karunanayake
The incidence of natural disasters has shown an alarming increase in recent times with Asia in particular taking a heavy toll. This increase is perhaps attributed to population explosion, living in vulnerable areas and increasing environmental damage. According to the Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) based in Belgium during the period between 1992 and 2001 Asia has gone through 1,057 natural disasters, resulting in 420,867 deaths (80 per cent of the world total) affecting two billion people at an estimated cost of US$684 billion. What is most disheartening is that the probability of disasters is high in poorer countries that are also under the IMF PRGF facility.

Sri Lanka, generally familiar with floods, droughts and landslides, has now learnt through the tsunami how destructive such natural disasters could turn out to be. As per the CRED definitions the recent Asian tsunami devastation falls on to a "great natural disaster" category as the disaster killed thousands of people, made millions homeless and caused economic losses of great magnitude, forcing nations like Sri Lanka to seek international assistance.

During the recent crisis it was evident Sri Lanka as a small island is highly vulnerable in the face of natural disasters due to the size and nature of its economy. Though in GDP terms fisheries, retail trade and tourism may not sound significant many other factors such as employment and linkages indicate the greater dependence on them. These sectors constitute a major part of the informal private sector even affecting the tax base and the spending power of consumers. Sea related disasters would continue to threaten these little islands mostly in the not so developed world.

Developed countries have the strength and flexibilities to counter disasters and its consequent damage, for example they could even raise the required revenue through taxation to make up for losses.

Disasters have a tendency of going beyond macroeconomic indicators to affect the whole business sector. According to the World Bank developing countries have made fewer efforts to adapt themselves to reduce the impact of natural disaster damages or to seek insurance cover against such known risks.

This is true even in our home soil and one wonders what efforts have the agencies such as coast conservation, urban development and environment taken to regulate construction in risky areas. Apart from natural disasters no efforts have been made to move people living under the bridges and along rail tracks. These are clear symptoms of politics overriding the public service.

Unfortunately it is mostly the poorer sections of the population who will be seriously affected, as it is they who live closer to vulnerable locations. Their livelihoods will be directly affected, recovery will be rather hard for them owing to savings limitations and lack of insurance facilities.

The tidal wave has hit in a strange manner with no uniformity and some areas away from the coast too being severely affected. This was evident in Payagala, Kosgoda, Akurala, Telwatte, Hikkaduwa and Magalle in Galle. Perhaps research will produce explanations. The disappearance of the houses even in the non-coastal side of the road is depressing. The most critical need of the hour is housing which traditionally accounts for 50 per cent of the post disaster funding. Whilst the road transport has now come back to normal, due to vast damages to the rail track train transport in the southern province is still at a standstill. Given the lack of experience and resource limitations, the Sri Lankan government will obviously need to rely heavily on foreign resources for this massive rebuilding effort which follows the relief process.

The present disaster has also shown the need for compulsory national service which could be an effective tool for rebuilding on a continuing basis. Extraordinary measures are required to get over difficult situations.
(The writer could be reached at -
suvink@eureka.lk)

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