5th Column

Who will lose what in referendum roulette?
"Thaaththa," Bindu Udagedera asked, "what is all this fuss about a referendum?"
"Satellite says she wants to have one…" Bindu's father, Percy said.

"But didn't she say so once before too?" Bindu wanted to know.
"Yes," Percy recalled, "but she changed her mind and cancelled that referendum at the last minute…"
"Then," Bindu asked, "why is everyone worried about it now? She may do that again…"
"But Bindu," Percy pointed out, "no one can afford to take a chance…"

"Why do you say that?"
"Why, Bindu, everybody stands to lose if the referendum is held…"
"How can you say that?"

"Why, the Greens will lose because they will be caught unawares and will not know what to do…"
"But what about the Reds?"
"They wouldn't know whether to go with Satellite or go against her…"

"That shouldn't bother them," Bindu said, "because even now they are with her and going against her…"
"But," Percy said, "even the Tigers for once will not know what to do…"

"And even the Blues themselves will lose…" Bindu said.
"Why do you say that?"
"Why, thaaththa," Bindu said, "with a referendum, both Anura's and Mahinda's hopes of becoming the next President will vanish…"

"That would be part of the plan, I guess…" Percy suggested.
"But thaaththa," Bindu asked, "does Satellite stand a chance of winning a referendum?"

"Ah, that is what is important about a referendum…" Percy declared.
"Why do you say that?"
"Unlike an election where you are either re-elected or you lose, in a referendum you can word it carefully so that you will not lose, no matter what the outcome is…"

"How can that be?" Bindu was puzzled.
"Why, Bindu, if the outcome is favourable to you, you accept the verdict of the referendum and do what you want, saying you have a mandate from the people…"
"But if it is not?" Bindu queried.

"Then, you can ignore its outcome or postpone what you are supposed to do…"
"How could you do that?"
"Why, Bindu, if for instance the verdict of the referendum is to abolish the Presidency Satellite can wait until the end of her second term to do that because the referendum doesn't say she should do so immediately…"

"Well, she has been postponing that particular decision for the past eleven years now" Bindu said, "so one more year wouldn't make much of a difference…"

"That's what's so wonderful about a referendum…" Percy said, "whatever it is that you want to do, a referendum will make it appear legal…"
"Just like Junius extending the life of the then Parliament twenty three years ago…"
"But Bindu," Percy said, "that is one of two questions that Satellite will never ask in a referendum…"

"What do you mean by that, thaaththa?"
"Satellite will never ask whether to extend this Parliament because she wouldn't want yes for an answer…"
"What is the other question she will not ask?" Bindu wanted to know.

"She will also not dare to ask whether her term of office should be extended because she wouldn't want to risk getting a 'no' for an answer…"
Bindu didn't know whether to say 'yes' or 'no' to that.

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