Political Column

Political Column

Getting hotter and hotter
By Our Political Editor
For a nation weary after near two decades of war, the trauma seems to be never ending. With a brief interlude of "no war, no peace" after the ceasefire, nature's fury took over. It was the horrendous Boxing Day tsunami from which the nation is yet to recover.

Now comes another nature's fury - a warning by our weather gods that hotter times are ahead in the coming days and weeks. They say the sun would be crossing the equator, right above Sri Lanka forcing temperatures to soar.

For the "haves" who are able, the unusual rise in temperatures would be nothing new. The tourist resorts in the central hills, particularly Nuwara Eliya, would cool their body heat and calm their nerves. For those who cannot take a holiday, their air conditioners will work over time. For the "have-nots" who are unable, it is not only rising temperatures that is putting the heat on them. The spiralling prices of bread, essential consumer goods, including cooking gas and a gamut of other items, are adding to it.

Rising emotions from a devastating tsunami and the rising temperatures from a hot sun, interesting enough, have gone much beyond afflicting Sri Lankans. It has permeated into the country's political firmament in a big way.

With regard to tsunami, President Kumaratunga dropped a bombshell early this week when she publicly declared her Government had not received "even five cents" of the money's pledged from foreign donors. Whether her media czars will now, as usual, blame the private media for misquoting her is a possibility, except that she is on video footage having said so. She said this was other than a Rs.110 million or so that may come through the Central Bank and the State banks. Much the same as previous occasions. But if she is right, whatever financial assistance that came to Government coffers, no doubt, has been robbed or just disappeared mysteriously. Otherwise, there is no logic in Government leaders publicly thanking both foreign Governments and private parties for the magnanimous response in the form of cash and kind.

Paradoxical enough, the main opposition United National Front's role in such matters has been confined to only a periodic news conference. They are quite content, it seems, listening to their own spokesman Prof. G. L. Peiris' voice, and having a TV appearance or two by a select few articulating their personal views rather than a common party view, sometimes to great disadvantage as was the case when ex-Lands Minister Rajitha Senarathne's faux pas during the budget debate on worker rights, and his recent comments on the UNP's stand on the North-East issue.

There the same old voices repeat the same old sentiments, and its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, silent as the sphinx (barring a witty comment at the Royal-Thomian on the 100-metre rule's effects on the school by the sea at Mount Lavinia ), has only now come out with a string of pocket meetings in the Chilaw area this weekend.

Their official version -- they were observing a three-month post-tsunami moratorium on political activity. Thus, they seem to have been edged out as a viable opposition by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the United People's Freedom Alliance's junior partner. They are creating history by being part of the Government and most of the opposition in contemporary politics today. They seemed conscious about tsunami and recovery so much, and found themselves in having to criticise their own Government, that they absented themselves from a Parliamentary debate on the subject in February, this year.

Now another issue that has become hotter, in the wake of news that temperatures are going to rise, is the future of the presidency. Even if the media have not focused sufficient attention, even if the subject has not been the focal point in the public eye or opposition political parties, a lot seems to be going on behind the scenes.

The most pointed question is what happens when President Chandrika Kumaratunga's contentious term as President ends by next year. She would have completed two terms as President and is thus disqualified to run a third (continuous) term. What does she do then?

Some of the top-rungers in the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) have pooled themselves into think tanks. They are holding a magnifying glass over the provisions of the constitution, poring over full stops and commas, to discern ways and means to keep her in office as the chief executive. One group led by President's Counsel Wijedasa Rajapakse have put down their thoughts on what they believe is a constitutional way out -- pass a resolution in Parliament to abolish the executive presidency by a simple majority and have it approved through a referendum. If wiser counsel does not disagree, this may see the light of day.

It was Wijedasa Rajapakse who was credited with advising President Kumaratunga to petition the Supreme Court that the portfolio of defence was a subject that cannot be divested by the President. She made her first reference to the Constitution and that was upheld by the Supreme Court.

What follows if she is unable to seek parliamentary approval and seek endorsement through a (non binding) referendum? Who then will be the UPFA's presidential candidate? Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse is touted as a hot favorite. So much so, when he left his hospital bed to attend the SLFP youth convention in Maharagama, he received a standing ovation. Many billed him as the "anagatha Janadipathi" or future President. The media exposure to Rajapakse being the front-runner was not sweet music to Anura Bandaranaike, who has not given up staking his own claims. He declared at a public meeting in Attanagalla that it was not the media that would decide the next presidential candidate. In this scenario, some of the behind-the-scenes developments are, no doubt, interesting, and intriguing.

Without the glare of any media publicity, President Kumaratunga sent Prime Minister Rajapakse a three-page letter just the week before. It was a complaint of sorts that catalogued a number of matters which Rajapakse was doing. They were in fact subject matters that came under the President and which she had personally embarked upon doing. A case of the proverbial "ballage vadey booruwa keranawa vagey" (the dog's work being done by the donkey). The message in the letter was to ask Premier Rajapakse not to do what she is doing. An example to illustrate the issues involved - the construction of a housing project in the Batticaloa district when Rajapakse was tasked with the responsibility of attending to needs in the Hambantota district.

No doubt the contents incensed Premier Rajapakse. He formulated a reply but did not send it to Kumaratunga. He asked for an appointment and got one early this week. Premier Rajapakse went for the meeting with his Secretary, Lalith Weeratunga. An issue-by-issue discussion followed. With regard to the housing project in Batticaloa, for example, Rajapakse explained he had received donors who fulfilled the needs of Hambantota district. There was assistance still remaining. He did not want to let them go waste. He had given part of the assistance to the Galle district and the balance to Batticaloa district. As for his plans to visit the area, there has been some confusion. He was unaware of the President's plan.

The consensus when the meeting ended some two and half hours later - lack of communication has led to misunderstandings. Premier Rajapakse told President Kumaratunga he had come armed with a reply to her letter. He said he was not going to hand it over to her since he did not want to set a precedent. That was kiss and make up in a relationship that has been rough and tumble.

When Premier Rajapakse was in hospital for a gastric ailment, he had a visitor - a former United National Party parliamentarian, known well for heckling in the House. Rajapakse was very pleased with the conversation he had with this former MP who offered to back him if he was going to be a presidential candidate. He had some critical comments to make of his own leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe. Rajapakse seized the opportunity and told this ex-MP he would draw him into Government's recovery efforts in the eastern province.

As against this, Anura Bandaranaike, who has now moved into 'Visumpaya', or the former Ackland House, had visitors last week. It was his sisters, Chandrika and Sunethra. Since moving into this former state guest house, Anura's own house at Rosmead Place, adjoining his parental bungalow 'Tintagel' (which is being turned into a boutique hotel ), is now being renovated.

All his memorabilia, including photographs with world leaders, his paintings, and the lot have been moved to his official residence - once the State Guest House. To deflect rumours of how he found the funds to renovate his private residence, Bandaranaike had made clear he had sold a piece of his ancestral Attanagalla property to raise the money.

According to family insiders, the family get together in 'Visumpaya' also focused on some political matters. One source said Sunethra spoke with the brother on his presidential aspirations. Bandaranaike aides feel strongly that he should be the next presidential candidate and warn he would otherwise quit politics and retire outside Sri Lanka. Bandaranaike himself is said to be preparing a countrywide political campaign to espouse his case.

Sister Chandrika Bandaranaike-Kumaratunga, however was already weighed down with the burdens of office, so much so that one wonders why anyone would want the job. Probably, 'somebody has to do it'. Her main concern these days is clearly studying options for her continued stay as CEO of the Republic, and her relationship with the JVP. She knows only too well that the JVP, come what may, will not quit her Government.

They've been in the periphery of public office for more than twenty years, and though she knows they are biding their time to make a leap frog into the seats of power as the main party (not the junior partner), they will not, cannot afford to, leave her Government right now. She knows they will stomach any insult, and her faithfuls are fond of quoting the case of them having been told to come later, two hours later - during their pre-Sandanaya courting days - and how the JVP leaders spent time cooling their heels, if not their tempers, at nearby Galle Face Green until she was ready to meet them. And then, the other occasion when they turned up at President's House, and was told she had no appointment with them in their diary.

She has turned the heat on her own partymen flirting with the JVP. She has identified Media Minister Mangala Samaraweera, Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar and her own brother Tourism Minister Anura Bandaranaike - in that order - of cosying up too closely to the JVP.

If one is to take it in reverse order, she has cautioned her brother to go easy with the JVP. With Kadirgamar, she has made it quite clear to him that she is not amused at his coalition (or Axis of Evil, whichever way you look at it) with the JVP on the North-East LTTE issue. The Jayantha Dhanapala led Peace Secretariat has successfully worked, worked hard on the President to sour the Kadirgamar-Kumaratunga relationship.

But the biggest victim has been Mangala Samaraweera. She has, in very clear terms, indicated to her one-time trusted friend (just like S.B. Dissanayake was), to stop his double-game of running with the hare and hunting with the hound. Remember, it was Samaraweera who in the loneliness of opposition during the 2002-2003 period) gave the President notice that he would quit politics if she did not sign on the dotted line with the JVP in an alliance to topple the UNP regime of the time.

The President last week presided at a meeting of the state media bosses, fuelling speculation that she had taken over Samaraweera's Ministry. This was not the case, and the Minister was away in China finalising the outlines of an agreement regarding the Hambantota harbour project. The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is due in Colombo on April 8.

All state media heads barring two were summoned for the meeting. Hudson Samarasinghe (SLBC), Janadasa Peiris (Lake House), Nishantha Ranatunga (DG-SLRC) and the Media Secretary Ganegala. The two left out were Newton Gunaratne (ITN) and M.M. Zuhair (SLRC). According to those close to the President, Gunaratne was not invited because he is considered a nationalist, while Zuhair is too close to Minister Samaraweera for comfort, and is also known as one carrying the Minister's orders to pump the image of the JVP over and above what the President wants done.

As if to prove the point, Zuhair trudged it to the JVP's Colombo district rally at Town Hall on Thursday, and sat in the Press Enclosure, certainly an unusual sight by any dropping standards of today. He remained throughout the session.

At the meeting, President Kumaratunga gave two edicts to the state media. "Give more emphasis to positive coverage of the peace process - shed the influence of the JVP within the State media". She will also continue to monitor the work of the Media Ministry from time to time giving Mangala Samaraweera more time to handle the Ports and Shipping portfolio.

Something has got the President under her skin vis-à-vis the JVP. Something that has been said together with some things they are doing. The known comments of JVP Minister K. D. Lal Kantha about the Emperor and the clothes - that somebody must be there to point out things to an Emperor who does not know he is walking about in the nude - and the repeated and nagging threats of staging a walk-out of the Government has got the better of Presidential nerves.

The JVP seems to realise this, and at its Thursday meeting of their Colombo district organisers, while they built a huge stage, and ran an impressive political rally befitting the Marxist organisational capabilities worldwide, their tone was a softer one, an element of moderation towards the President. The fire and brimstone were again hurled at the UNP -- "We will never allow the UNP to come back to power", was a way of saying, we will see that the UPFA remains in power.

They said they do not mind a referendum, and that made no real threat of leaving the Government if the joint mechanism with the LTTE was to be actually implemented.

Privately, they remained defiant, though. They insisted they will walk out if their basic principle of not recognising the LTTE was abandoned by the President. They refuse to accept the fact that the Norwegians are on the verge of a breakthrough on this GOSL-LTTE joint-mechanism, saying there is lot more to be resolved.

Equally, they conceded that they would probably have to weigh the consequences of accepting a joint-mechanism with the LTTE to spend tsunami relief funds, and that mechanism transforming into an ISGA type self-rule mechanism, with the consequences of leaving the Government now, receiving the wrath of a President who is quite capable of using her men and horses, and TV stations to give vent to her Presidential wrath.

And that wrath comes at a time when the Government is on the verge of coming to terms with the LTTE on a joint mechanism for the equitable distribution of aid for tsunami recovery. The Government has to do this to let the donor co chairs to loosen the purse strings. If the move takes place and the JVP carries out its threat to walk out of the United People's Freedom Alliance, that would also mean tightening the noose around the Government's neck. Either way the survival battle is also hotting up.

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