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How
strong is LTTE? She drove from the Janadipathi Mandiraya to the Joint Operations Headquarters (JOH), located inside the Army Headquarters complex. There she sat for over three hours listening to top military officials spell out their strategies to counter fresh threats posed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). She raised questions on some key issues that surfaced and acknowledged the need for remedial action. The meeting was the culmination of a six-month long process set in motion by Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and Commander of the Navy, Vice Admiral Daya Sandagiri. Soon after assuming office as head of the unified apparatus of the tri services, the top most post in Sri Lanka's security establishment, Vice Admiral Sandagiri tasked a high-level committee to carry out a strategic assessment of the fresh threats posed by Tiger guerrillas. It was headed by Rear Admiral Sarath Weerasekera, then Director General, Naval Operations (DGNO). He is now the Commander, Eastern Naval area headquartered in Trincomalee. Other members of the committee are: Major General Kapila Henda-vitharana, Director General, Military Intelligence (DGMI) Major General Lawrence Fernando, Director General - General Staff at the JOH, Brigadier Jagath Jayasuriya, Director Operations of the Army, Commodore Jayantha Perera, Director Operations of the Navy and Air Commodore Roshan Gunathilake, Director Operations of the Air Force. The committee was called upon to study how the LTTE had strengthened its military machine during the ceasefire which is now three years old. This was through recruitment of additional cadres, induction of sophisticated weapons and the expansion of its activities, both in the North and the East. The team visited military installations in these two areas during the course of their extensive study. Last Tuesday, it fell on Rear Admiral Weerasekera to give a 90-minute presentation on the final strategic assessment made by the committee. It was accompanied by charts and maps. Besides President Kumaratunga, taking part at this high level meeting were easily the officials and military top brass under the UPFA Government who would run the country's military machine in the event of a war situation. They were retired Major General and former North East Governor, Asoka Jayawardena, retired Police Chief and former Defence Secretary, Cyril Herath and retired Major General Chula Seneviratne, Chief of National Intelligence. Also present were Lt. Gen. Shantha Kottegoda, Commander of the Army, Vice Admiral Daya Sandagiri, Commander of the Navy and Air Marshal Donald Perera, Commander of the Air Force. All members of the committee were also on hand. For obvious reasons, one cannot spell out the detailed findings of the committee or its recommendations. However, it would be pertinent to mention a few matters that are of public concern and are widely known. The committee was of the view that the period after the tsunami catastrophe had seen the launch of a number of measures to strengthen the LTTE military machine. This has been through the acquisition of aid, both in cash and kind, under the "pretext of helping" tsunami victims in guerrilla-dominated areas. According to a high-ranking military source, substantial funds are being diverted to build infrastructure facilities along the north-east coast. This was to strengthen Sea Tigers who suffered considerable damage in this area due to the tsunami disaster. Among structures destroyed were Sea Tiger training camps and bases. In this regard, the source who spoke on grounds of strict anonymity, argues that the proposed Joint Mechanism between the Government and the LTTE for the equitable distribution of aid for tsunami recovery was very relevant. This joint mechanism is to be concluded by next week. It is likely to be signed by officials of the Ministry of Reconstru-ction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement with the LTTE's Planning and Development Secretariat (PDF). One of the contentious issues that remain to be resolved between the Government and the LTTE, through the good offices of Norwegian peace facilitators, is how the buffer zone in the north eastern coast would be enforced. Whilst the Government is insistent on a 100-metre zone, the LTTE, it is learnt, wants an extended area inland from the coast. Though not clearly defined, the LTTE is also said to want the same buffer zone to extend to some distance from the coast towards the sea. The military source contends that the LTTE wants to ensure the coastal civilian population are settled inland, a long distance away from the coast. "This way, they will gain greater dominance and mobility for Sea Tigers and ground cadres along the coastal belt they hold," the source pointed out. The committee has also highlighted what it sees as a "fear psychosis" prevailing in the security establishment in "controlled" areas adjoining guerrilla-dominated territories. The security as well as law and order situation in these areas had deteriorated because personnel tended to turn a blind eye. This was out of fear that they would stand accused of impeding or sabotaging the peace process. They also feared they would not receive any backing from the political leadership. They view that this was in marked contrast to the late 1980s when the military was called upon to crack down on the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna uprising. In the hunt for the most wanted, even relatives and friends of them were not spared. Exacerbating this situation, the committee found, was the all-important question of morale in the military. Besides the deterioration of security, law and order, there were several other factors. Among them were the killing of informants and operatives of the military, the raising of LTTE flags in public places and the provision of helicopter rides to Tiger guerrilla leaders. In the case of the latter, the committee had pointed out that such trips were not being confined only to journeys related to the ongoing peace process. They point out that helicopter rides had included theatre-to-theatre transfers and other activity that were strictly military in nature. When members of the LTTE were killed or injured in incidents, there was a high degree of concern. However, the same concern has not been shown when members of other groups have been killed, injured or abducted. Besides a problem of morale, this has also led to a mindset among military personnel on how to react to developing situations. The committee was of the strong view that the present situation should not be allowed to deteriorate further. A significant recommendation made by the committee is the long felt need for standardisation of equipment in the military. At present, with the absence of a proper, centralised military procurement agency, each service arm purchased its own needs. This led not only to incompatibility in the equipment used by the three armed services but also to redundancies. In the past, this mode of procurement, particularly during the tenure of the former People's Alliance Government, led to widespread corruption and other malpractices. This recommendation comes as the Government is set to make new military procurements. As reported earlier, it showed interest in a US $ 140 million defence purchases deal with Iran. A high-powered tri services delegation led by Army Commander, Lt. Gen. Kottegoda was on a weeklong trip to Iran. Upon their return, a detailed shopping list was formulated after comparing prices in other international markets. The move is now on hold as concerns began to be expressed in Washington with whom close military co-operation has been on the increase. Meanwhile the Government is also taking a look at possible procurements from Israel. Lt. Gen. Kottegoda visited Israel last week in the company of Maj. Gen. Gamini Hettiaratchchi, Security Forces Commander, East and Nimal Leuke, DIG who is Commandant of the Police Special Task Force. They attended a conference and exhibition titled "Low Intensity Conflict" held in Tel Aviv. It was sponsored by the Army branch of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). The conference was attended by delegations from a dozen countries. Guest speakers were from the IDF and some US Army Generals with experience in Iraq. The exhibition displayed new products by the Israeli security industry. Lt. Gen. Kottegoda also met the Chief of Staff of the Army, Major General Moshe Yaalon. This week, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Navy, Rear Admiral Yuval Zur was in Colombo for talks with his Naval counterparts. Born in Haifa, Rear Admiral Zur served in Israeli Navy's missile boat fleet and later in their submarine fleet. He has been decorated for his role in anti submarine warfare. The Navy has also taken delivery of the refurbished US coast guard cutter, temporarily re-named P 621. Last week, a US Navy fleet that was escorting it through Atlantic carried out a mid sea re-fuelling. They pumped 12,596 gallons during a flawless exercise. The US fleet was also providing the newly acquired Navy vessel with long-range weather forecasts to cover the period of their voyage. The Committee on Strategic Planning also emphasised the strong need for greater co-operation between the three armed services. This is through the conduct of more joint exercises to hone their skills in military preparedness and capability. One such programme between the Navy and the Air Force has already got under way. The committee is of the view that the LTTE is not as strong militarily as it claims to be. Hence, it has declared that the security forces capability and preparedness were adequate to counter any threats posed. The discussion also focused on the need to avoid blue on blue situations - erroneous fire on their own positions by the security forces. President Kumaratunga raised queries on a number of matters placed before her. Soon after the meeting ended, she sat for a final round of discussions with Maj. Gen. (retd) Asoka Jayawardena, Cyril Herath and the three armed forces chiefs. It is not clear how the Committee on Strategic Planning came to the conclusion that the LTTE is not as militarily strong as it claims to be. Despite the grave paucity of intelligence, many state intelligence agencies have reported periodically on the military build up by Tiger guerrillas both in the North and the East. This is during the period of the ceasefire. One of the weak characteristics of the near two decades of separatist war in the country's security establishment has been its under estimation of the enemy. Hence, their response to the enemy has also been one based on under estimations. The fact that this has contributed to most military debacles during the separatist war is no secret. One can only hope the security establishment has benefited from lessons learnt and will not make the historic mistakes again. There is a paradox to the LTTE increasing its strength militarily. Successive Governments have helped them do so. Since the ceasefire, the previous United National Front (UNF) turned a blind eye whilst the process of a sophisticated military consolidation was under way. Similarly, the UPFA Government was blissfully unaware when a 1.2 kilometre long airstrip took shape in Kilinochchi and the LTTE later acquired air capability. It is only now the Government has launched a campaign to apprise the international community of the LTTE's construction of an airstrip and acquisition of air capability. The Government wants countries apprised to make official pronouncements. Thereafter, it wants to launch a diplomatic campaign of its own to force the LTTE to dismantle the airstrip and its air capability. Evidently the Government is constrained by a number of factors. Important among them is its eagerness to obtain pledged funds from donor co-chairs for the post-tsunami recovery efforts. The co-chairs have linked such funds to the forward movement of the peace process. In this regard, Norway is now forging ahead to formulate the joint mechanism between the Government and the LTTE for the equitable distribution of aid for tsunami recovery. Whilst negotiating with Norway on the modalities of this joint mechanism, the UPFA Government does not want to be at loggerheads with the LTTE. Such a move, it feels, will not only strain relations but also lead to protracted delays in the receipt of aid. The strategy to bring about international awareness is borne out of this situation. Through that process it wants to generate an expression of concern. Thereafter the Government wants to build on that situation. These developments came as both the Government and the LTTE were busy tightening up security measures in the Batticaloa and Ampara district. Both districts have seen an escalation of violence after LTTE stepped up its efforts to gain greater military and political control, as revealed in these columns last week. The Government began pumping in additional troops from yesterday. They are to beef up security forces strength in areas considered vulnerable in the Batticaloa district. State intelligence agencies reported this week that the guerrillas were resorting to a weapons and ammunition build up particularly in the Batticaloa district. Large stocks were reported to be arriving from the Mullaitivu area both by sea and through secret routes via Trincomalee south. Intelligence sources suspect the move is a prelude to stepped up violence after the LTTE had launched a major crack down on all their opponents. If military measures got under way to quell the violence, on the political front, for the first time in the history of the separatist war, a Presidential Commission of Inquiry appointed by President Kumaratunga to probe killings of LTTE cadres will begin sittings next week. J. Visvanathan, High Court Judge, Vavuniya is chairing the Commission which includes W.T.M.P.B. Warawewa, High Court Judge of Ampara. They will sit in the Ampara court complex from March 28 to April 1. Thereafter, they will move to the Batticaloa courts complex from April 4 to 8. An official announcement from the Commission says it would record evidence from civilians, armed forces, police and the LTTE to ascertain the circumstances and / or motive leading to the attacks on those alleged to be LTTE cadres. It said evidence will be restricted to the circumstances relating to the incidents of killing, injuring and attempts to kill / injure by use of firearms / explosives in the Eastern Province mainly in Batticaloa and Ampara districts from February 1 to March 2, 2005. Security forces say attacks between Tiger guerrilla groups and renegade Karuna faction continued this week. On March 14, guerrilla groups gunned down two civilians, said to be supporters of the Karuna faction, in Karapola. They allege that the guerrillas placed the blame on members of the Karuna faction. The next day, guerrilla cadres opened fire on three persons travelling in a motorcycle at Kaludaveli near Mankerni. One was killed and two escaped. The deceased was identified as Jeya Ganeshan, a supporter of the Karuna faction. On March 16, guerrilla cadres shot dead Thambirasa Jegan, a supporter of the Karuna group, in Kalmunai. Since February 7, when LTTE Political Wing leader for Ampara-Batticaloa Ilayathamby Lingarasa alias Kaushalyan was shot dead; Wanni cadres had been involved in 42 incidents of killings and abductions. Security Forces say the renegade Karuna faction was engaged in 12 such incidents. It is interesting to note that since January 1, this year, until February 7, the day Kaushayan was killed, there has not been a single reported killing by Wanni cadres in “cleared” or security forces controlled areas. However, there was one attempted killing and six cases of abduction. The Karuna faction was reported to be responsible for six deaths including that of Kaushalyan during this period. The reported LTTE build up in the Batticaloa district in particular and the Government's consolidation of security in the district from yesterday portends a new phase. How it will play in the coming days and weeks and whether it will lead to heightening or lessening of tensions remains unclear. |
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