Political Column

Political Column

CBK's final battle with Mahinda
By Our Political Editor

With the politically significant words "Arrival /Transit" on the board, the outgoing president Chandrika Kumaratunga last Tuesday participated in her final public function with Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse. The ceremony was held to mark the opening of the new wing, the walkalator, the aerobridges and other facilities at the BIA. Pic by Ishara S. Kodikara

Any election in Sri Lanka, apart from the obvious emergence of winners and losers, has many lessons for the outside world. They are all international records by any standard -- the surveys, the forecasts, the wisdom and wisecracks of analysts, among others. The reason -- the results reveal they are very largely lopsided. Not surprising when all these mantras are built on one foundation - after first making up one's mind on who's going to or who should win.

Last Thursday's keenly fought out presidential elections was no different. Yet, there was a paradox. At Cambridge Place, the office of the Leader of the Opposition, from where the United National Party's presidential campaign was being monitored, there was heightened concern as the early hours of Friday dawned. Would their candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe emerge winner? The questions were being raised because the counting had led to a see-saw battle. One moment it showed Wickremesinghe in the lead. Next, he was trailing behind Rajapakse. By 4 a.m. Friday, it became clear Rajapakse was comfortably ahead. So they knocked off the lights and thought they should get some rest.

The scene was no different at Temple Trees. If there was great confidence among those monitoring the polls there about a certain victory for Rajapakse, hopes had receded for a while. It had led to nervous moments but they chose to keep awake. Staffers were reaching out to counting agents in various parts of the country to ascertain whether there was hope. Yes, they said and they waited hopefully for the rest of the results to come

A different drama was unfolding in two other places where two of the country's strongest non believers in a Rajapakse victory - outgoing President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and her brother Foreign Minister Anura Bandaranaike - were watching TV.

Anura Bandaranaike was at the State Guest House "Visumpaya," now his home. By 5 a.m. on Friday, it became clear Rajapakse was heading for victory. Though sleepy, he immediately dictated a letter of congratulations to him and then went to sleep. If Anura was wishing Rajapakse well now, since nominations leading up to the elections last Friday, he had been mostly abroad. He had also openly criticised Rajapakse and said he was not interested in elections. Kumaratunga also broke rest at the "Janadipathi Mandiraya" watching television and retired only after it emerged that Rajapakse was emerging winner.

By Friday morning, Rajapakse who turned 60 years had won a birthday gift: Sri Lankans - or at least the southern Sri Lankans -- had elected him President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka. He was deluged with telephone calls wishing him many happy returns and extending congratulations.

Even late into that morning, Rajapakse was on the first floor of Temple Trees answering telephones. Then, he received an important telephone call -- from Kumaratunga. The congratulatory message from her was brief. Then she got on to the next subject.

She had heard that soon after all official results are announced, Rajapakse had made arrangements to be sworn in as President. An auspicious time had been fixed at 3.36 pm on Friday. Kumaratunga asked the newly elected President not to take his oaths that day and to wait until after November 23.

For on November 22, Kumaratunga had planned a grandiose ceremony at the Army Grounds. Her own farewell. That was going to be an event to be telecast live countrywide. She was going to inspect a guard of honour, make an address to the troops (and to the country) and depart as President. Rajapakse said there was no problem at all. She could still have the tri services farewell parade. But, as far as he was concerned, he had wanted the oaths taking ceremony since that was on a good date. Behind the scenes, Kumaratunga had been busy with her Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Daya Sandagiri fine tuning arrangements for the grand send-off for herself.

Though Rajapakse had wanted his oaths administered on Friday, later on astrological advice, he picked yesterday (Saturday). That was said to be more auspicious than Friday. But Kumaratunga was insistent, after 11 ½ years as President, she should still continue for a few more days. Rajapakse's refusal irked her and a war of words ensued between the two Presidents, the incumbent and the hitapu. Kumaratunga accused Rajapakse of listening to people around him, an obvious reference to the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), and doing things.

"I don't listen to gossip. Nor do I act on them," retorted President-elect Rajapakse. He told President Kumaratunga, "you have been accusing me of this all the time. Let me tell you once more not to say things like that."
Kumaratunga asked at one point "is anybody around you?", to which Rajapakse snapped back rather viciously saying "I don't get any outsiders to my bedroom". Then, as the argument reached a crescendo, Kumaratunga told Rajapakse "I lost my mother because of you."
Rajapakse kept his cool and told Kumaratunga "let us not fight on a good day like this. I will come and see you. We can then talk." With those words, the congratulatory call from the outgoing President to the incoming President ended.

Yesterday, Rajapakse drove to Janadipathi Mandiraya ahead of taking oaths as President. Here again a lengthy conversation ensued. Kumaratunga, who wanted to remain in the Presidency for a few more days, just a few more days, now had other requests from him. She asked Rajapakse to make her brother, Anura the Foreign Minister. It seemed she was no longer making a claim to make him Prime Minister. "How can I make a person who has been maligning me so much, who did not support my election campaign as my Foreign Minister. He insulted me so much in this country, now you want me to appoint him to travel the world and continue to insult me," he told Kumaratunga. Sources close to Rajapakse said Anura is to be made the Minister of Public Administration.

In the UNP camp, there was understandable disappointment at the eventual outcome of last Thursday's result. They blamed the LTTE for pulling the rug from under their feet, and a section of the party went straight at Milinda Moragoda and Navin Dissanayake for their last minute assistance to help the party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
For those unfamiliar with what was said, both Moragoda and Dissanayake implied that the LTTE's breakaway Karuna faction was a direct result of the 2002 ceasefire agreement signed between Wickremesinghe and LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran.

That was a known fact, but when the two UNP MPs said this, on the eve of a crucial meeting between the LTTE and the Tamil National Alliance, it was seen as political hara-kiri by the UNP.

One of those who slammed the Moragoda-Dissanayake combine was Arasaratnam Sasidharan, the UNP's District Co-ordinator for Batticaloa, a grand-nephew of onetime State Councillor V. Nalliah. He described the dangers his 'boys' were undertaking on behalf of the party in his area, a veritable minefield of opposing forces as got engaged in a spat with whom he called Tamil UNPers living comfortably in Colombo.

He was to go back, and tell pocket-meetings that this was an internal conspiracy by some UNPers to have Wickremesinghe defeated, and eventually to oust him.

Later, having delivered 90,000 votes, the second highest number of votes for the UNP next only to Nuwara-Eliya, Sasidharan was complaining that the party had not even given him a telephone call to thank him and his co-campaigners for delivering the goods under trying circumstances.
UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, however, absorbed some of the blame. He felt that it was his decision to ask for the two main parties to join hands in bringing about a peaceful resolution to the north east war that irked the LTTE. Not so much his waving the Sinha-kodiya or the Lion flag at the final stages of his campaign to rustle up the southern vote, nor the LTTE explanation that the UNP leader told the army in the north that he would modernise the forces to meet the challenge of the LTTE, that caused the rift.

Still others, went with what many political analysts believe; that the LTTE decided its strategy some months ago. That they should support the weaker 'Sinhala' candidate, and that being Mahinda Rajapakse, and to eliminate his most likely prime ministerial choice, Lakshman Kadirgamar, the most dangerous man in their book. The rest was just the LTTE camouflaging their original strategy by blaming Moragoda, Dissanayake and Wickremesinghe for what they said or did.

It now transpires that in the dying moments of the hard-fought campaign, the LTTE was still prepared to bargain with the UNP, and vice-versa. That the LTTE, angry with the proposed UNP MoU with the Muslim Congress, was asking for an MoU with the LTTE.

The UNP high command was not in mood to yield, fearing that they would, by doing so, run the risk of being berated especially by the JVP, and lose the votes they were slowly but surely collecting in the south.
The party, and its leader, lampooned for having secret deals with the LTTE, eventually was undone by them. Wickremesinghe did creditably in the south despite this accusation, and its skewered media-oriented campaign strategies.

Several of these master strategists, were trotting out excuses, while still others were planning long flights abroad. Party chairman Malik Samarawickrama was preparing to throw in the towel soon after the elections. As campaign manager for his party leader he quickly took the responsibility for the defeat. It was also aimed at protecting Wickremesinghe, who himself was considering what he must do in the circumstances.Victory has many fathers, they say, while defeat is an orphan. That's the eternal truth.

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