Situation Report - A full-scale war about to begin

* Pulithevan says it was their last journey through Colombo
* Clear evidence of LTTE hand in Kebethigollawa massacre
* Air strikes cause damage to Tiger airstrip at Iranamadu

Slowly but surely the low intensity Eelam War IV is escalating. As expected, clear signs emerged barely 24 hours after the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) delegation to the failed Oslo talks arrived in Colombo on Wednesday. Political Wing leader S.P. Thamilselvan and party, like when they passed through Colombo en route to Oslo, did not receive a VIP welcome.

The five-member team arrived in Colombo at 9.47 a.m. and had to await their turn at lengthy queues ahead of the Immigration desk. Then they waited for Customs clearance of their baggage. Perhaps hoping they would be whisked off as VIPs without inspection they had brought in some military related items. That included weapons manuals, two binoculars cum range finders and two pistol holsters. They were confiscated. Customs imposed a duty of Rs 20,000 each on three camcorders before they were released. The time was 1.12 p.m.

With that over, Air Force personnel put their baggage through x-ray equipment for a thorough check. Thereafter they were loaded to a Russian built Mi-17 helicopter. Unlike the earlier occasions, there were glum faces among the LTTE team. There were no smiles. The mood was serious even among the Norwegian Embassy and Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) officials.

Seevaratnam Prabagaran, better known by his nom de guerre Pulithevan, told an acquaintance "this is our last journey through Colombo." Then they were off to Kilinochchi, perhaps for the last time in an Air Force helicopter during the 1756-day-old ceasefire.

Days ahead of the LTTE team's arrival in Colombo, there was a debate in the defence and security establishment whether a helicopter should be made available. This was on the basis that they did not deserve one since they refused to sit down and talk in Oslo with a Government delegation. One suggestion was to send them by bus to Omanthai and have them cross over the stretch of "no man's" land into the guerrilla-held entry-exit point. Another was for the helicopter to land in Omanthai so the team could walk across. However, it was pointed out that the Government had given an assurance to airlift them and that had to be honoured.

The next morning (Thursday) a claymore mine exploded in Kebethigollawa, some 55 kilometres north east of the sacred city of Anuradhapura. Sixty three men, women and children in a crowded bus were killed and more than 80 wounded. This horrendous incident turned out to be the worst during the ceasefire and shook the conscience of civilised society the world over. A second unexploded claymore mine remained to tell the story of the mastermind behind the mass murder. That is if one was in doubt. Not many were. Such claymore mines are the hallmark of Tiger guerrillas.

One of the maladies of past governments was the inept mechanisms they had to tell Sri Lankans and the world their own story. A sizeable period of the near-two-decade-long separatist war was fought under a censorship. Besides government troops and civilians, truth also became a casualty. If many of the accounts trotted out were true, there would have been no need for any fears today about an escalation of Eelam War IV. They were not. If figures of deaths were added together, there would be no population left in the Jaffna peninsula. There were many lessons to learn. Despite all this, one characteristic stood out in all the muddle - fact or fiction, successive governments spoke in one voice.

Alas, for a Government that has been thrust with an unexpected Eelam War IV, getting their message across to Sri Lankans and the world outside appears to be at odds. They are speaking in different voices.

The first official response on Thursday morning came from the Government Information Department. Titled "Government Press Release," the two paragraph statement gave no details about the incident. It only strongly condemned the barbaric and inhuman killing of dozens of innocent civilians. Who did it? There was no reference in the statement to the perpetrators - the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). It simply said "the government is aware that the aim of terrorists is to instigate a backlash in order to fulfill their evil designs…."

If this is what the Government of Sri Lanka told their countrymen and the world outside, at least an hour earlier the pro-LTTE Tamilnet website had a different account. It said 58 civilian passengers were killed and 70 were wounded. The figure of 58 deaths is what occurred at the scene of the incident. Others died on the way, upon admission or whilst in hospital. It quoted Pulithevan as saying LTTE condemned the "attack on civilians in strongest political terms." The "ill timed attack," Pulithevan said "after the LTTE delegation has returned from Oslo, was a planned act carried out by paramilitary elements." Both, details of the incident as well as a denial were thus contained in the Tamilnet account.

It was only during late afternoon the Policy Research and Information Unit (PRIU) in the Presidential Secretariat put out a two-page statement. It gave some details of the incident. In that Defence spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella was quoted as saying that the attack was a clear example of LTTE terrorism. It also quoted Media Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa as saying "the aim of the terrorists is to instigate a backlash." Hours later, the Media Centre for National Security declared 64 civilians have died. But in the night, the same Centre said "Death Toll in Tamil Tiger Bus Massacre rises to 63." It had come down by one from the previous account.

If different agencies of the government were saying different things, all reflecting the official view, a clear lack of co-ordination in the different voices is evident in some of the assertions. That it is late by hours in this era of modern communications where seconds mattered is one thing. An assertion, for example, was a two-page statement from the Media Centre for National Security. It said…. "This inhuman and "senseless" massacre, as the LTTE media pundits themselves claimed miserably after pointing the finger at Sri Lankan Security Forces, serves as strong evidence to the effect that LTTE terrorists are hysterically more interested in bloodshed but not in the so-called "Peace talks." Surely, the government has not officially backed out of the peace talks. Or, is the Centre taking up a new official position on behalf of the government?

The more different agencies are allowed to speak differently on the same issue, the more credibility problems it would pose for the government. There is a strong need to identify priorities and speak with one voice. What is of more importance in a crisis situation like Thursday's civilian massacre is to first give Sri Lankans and the outside world an account of what has happened and who did it. For such an exercise, a single agency at the apex becomes a sine qua non. Otherwise, as demonstrated this week, the Government's many agencies disseminating information will work at variance. That will create more confusion than give a cohesive picture. It does not bode well for President Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration.

Mr. Rajapaksa was deeply angered at the news of the massacre. He brushed aside advice from the Presidential Security Division (PSD) and his senior security advisers. He flew to the scene of the massacre in a helicopter escorted by Mi-24 helicopter gunships. Later, he visited both the Kebettigolloawa and the Base Hospital in Anuradhapura to personally speak to the victims.

Hardly had he returned to Colombo than an exodus had begun from many villages in the area. Some converged in schools whilst others were leaving for safer areas in the south. Yesterday, a three member military team went from village to village appealing to residents not to vacate homes and assuring them security. The team comprised Rear Admiral Sarath Weerasekera, Director General of Home Guards, Major General Sharman Kulatunga, Commandant, Sri Lanka Army Volunteer Force (SLAVF) and Major General Nimal Jayasuriya, Area Commander, Weli Oya. They were also deploying additional home guards and troops to villages considered vulnerable.

Besides the discovery of the unexploded claymore mine, a sign that the attack on the civilian bus in Kebethigollawa was carried out by Tiger guerrillas, state intelligence agencies warned of such an impending attack. They were of the view that several LTTE and other Tamil websites have been setting the stage for it by repeatedly referring to attacks on civilians in guerrilla-dominated areas by paramilitary groups and security forces. Two state intelligence agencies reported remarks made in Switzerland by head of the so called "LTTE Police" Balasingham Mahendran who is better known by his nom de guerre Nadesan. He had told the Tamil community there that people in the south should suffer the same way their counterparts in LTTE-dominated areas were facing hardships.

A statement in the LTTE Peace Secretariat website termed the Kebethigollawa incident as a "mindless use of civilian life for political end." It, however, noted: "The GoSL operated forces are continuing to take civilian life with total impunity in the Northeast. Since Geneva talks in February 250 civilians including 24 children have been murdered by GoSL operative forces in the Northeast. It has now spread its tactic of using civilian life for political end and beyond."

"For obvious reasons they have to deny civilian massacres. They have done that throughout their military campaign. They even disowned the massacre of civilians in Anuradhapura in May 1985," a high ranking state intelligence official told The Sunday Times. He spoke on grounds of anonymity. The official said the only difference "between then and now is the LTTE denials and the present statements of condemnation." The latter is only a misleading smokescreen," he added. He said there was "convincing evidence that the Kebethigollawa massacre was carried out by the LTTE using the most common weapon in their arsenal now, the claymore mine."

Besides Thursday's massacre, a study of recent incidents has shown a marked increase. Of particular interest were the rise in attacks on checkpoints, security forces personnel and the police. Intelligence reports have revealed that guerrilla cadres operating in Government "controlled" areas have been asked to take "opportunity" targets. This includes VIPs. In the "uncontrolled" areas, guerrilla cadres have been ordered to eliminate all those who are working against the LTTE including suspected informants.

Military training for civilians has been stepped up in guerrilla-dominated villages in the north and east. Besides training on the use of weapons, intelligence sources say, they were also being told to report on the presence of strangers in their areas. Fears that Long Range Reconnaisance Patrols (LRRP) were operating behind the guerrilla lines have caused serious worries for the LTTE. This has also prompted them to deploy intelligence cadres to several villages to operate together with civilian groups.

Thursday's massacre prompted the Government to order air strikes on rebel targets in the north and east. Main among them was the LTTE airstrip located south east of the Iranamadu irrigation tank in Kilinochchi. Reports from the area and from Air Force sources said the bombing caused at least four craters in the runway. Though the use of the runway has thus been disabled, it is still possible for the guerrillas to utilize a road roller and patch up the airstrip. Moreover, the light aircraft, at least five of them known to be in the hands of the LTTE, it has been revealed, could take off from nearby road stretches.

But a considerable success for the Air Force was the bombing of the perimeters of the airstrip. One hit what is suspected to be either a fuel store or an aircraft. Pilots had reported seeing a ball of fire emanate from the area. Another hit was on an anti-aircraft gun position. Other targets in the north had included Sea Tiger bases in Chalai. The air raids were carried out on Thursday and Friday.

The continuing air raids prompted authorities to step up security measures in the City of Colombo and suburbs. This was particularly after a claymore mine, meant for a Navy vehicle, hit a private bus outside the SLNS Gemunu, the naval establishment at Welisara on June 6. Investigations have confirmed that guerrillas had placed the mine in the hope of hitting a Navy group headed for the Ratmalana airport for a flight to Palaly. However, the departure of the vehicle had been delayed.

Fears of another attack in the greater Colombo area came right when a suspected plot to attack the Colombo Port or a ship entering it emerged yesterday. This was with the dawn arrest of two guerrillas on the beach at Pamunugama near Negombo. Civilians in the area, suspicious of their movements, had rushed to question them.

One had bitten a cyanide capsule and collapsed. He died later. When the civilians alerted the police, the second person had also bitten a cyanide capsule. He was admitted to the Welisara hospital. Civilians said that minutes ahead of the sighting of the two guerrillas, they had heard a loud explosion at sea. Some half an hour later, there had been a second explosion.

Naval craft that were moved into the area rounded up a guerrilla frogman swimming in the vicinity. Later, they apprehended a boat with three more guerrillas. Navy found on board a Global Positioning System (GPS), frogmen's kits, oxygen cylinders, explosive packages and mobile phones among other things. The interrogation of those in custody have revealed that eight different explosive packages, fixed with timing devices and attached to magnets, were to be placed on eight ships in the Colombo Port.

The plan was to carry it out on Friday but the seas had turned out to be choppy. The seas were choppy yesterday too and the premature explosion of two explosive packages had put paid to plans. Two more packages were found on the boat whilst two others were located floating in the seas off Wennappuwa. It was recovered by the Police.

Two Navy Inshore Patrol Craft (IPS) sent from SLNS Rangala, the Naval establishment in Colombo ran into rough seas. One IPC sank. Two sailors were rescued and three were missing.

Senior Navy officials believe that an attack on a Navy patrol off the seas of Pesalai near Mannar was intended as a diversion. Eleven sailors died in the confrontation. Navy Commander Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda believes at least 25 to 30 guerrillas would have been killed in the encounter where the Navy sank some of their boats. The pro-LTTE Tamilnet website said five civilians were killed and 44 were wounded due to security forces fire. However, Vice Admiral Karannagoda said firing from the LTTE boats had hit fishermen on the coast. Some had fled to a nearby church in fear.

Even if the Government and the LTTE continue to re-iterate they are committed to the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2002 that pledge now seems only on paper. Monitoring an over-four-year-old ceasefire has become the most difficult task for the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM). Since May 11 they have refrained from boarding Navy vessels on patrol duties. Of the 57 truce monitors, the LTTE now says 37 of them, from Sweden, Denmark and Finland, members of the European Union have "no moral right" to serve. That leaves 20 monitors to oversee a truce only on land.

This is whilst peace facilitator Norway awaits responses to their five questions from the Government and the LTTE. The Government has said yes but the LTTE is yet to respond. Never before has the CFA come under such severe strain. A full scale war that most fear is about to begin.