Situation Report

Eight days into Eelam War IV, the aim of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to lay siege on the Jaffna peninsula became still clearer.

This week saw some of the bloodiest battles. The guerrillas were using their newly acquired firepower during the ceasefire to the maximum. The thrust was on Muhamalai, the entry-exit point that divides the guerrilla-dominated Wanni from the Government controlled Jaffna peninsula. On Sunday they directed artillery and mortar fire there and along the defence lines at Kilaly (western side) and Nagerkovil (eastern side). The idea was to break through and attack security forces positions and installations inside.

But they failed despite a second week of attacks. Wave after wave of guerrilla cadres made forays. Security forces stood their ground. In the bitter gun battles large groups of guerrillas were killed.

Those who retreated found it difficult to take the bodies of their dead colleagues. The Army said 124 guerrillas were killed in the fighting on Sunday. However, the LTTE remained silent on these battles and played down its casualties. It is not possible to independently verify their casualties.

As the fighting raged on Sunday, security forces learnt through radio intercepts that LTTE leaders were trying hard to induct cadres from the East. One base was heard telling LTTE military leaders in Mullaitivu there was reluctance on the part of the youth to travel to the North. They were expected to go by sea. It is in this backdrop that the state-run television ran crawlers in their Sunday night programmes urging viewers to expect an important Government announcement.

That turned out to be an appeal to guerrilla cadres to surrender themselves to the nearest Security Forces camp or Police Station. The Government said it would assure their safety, rehabilitate and hand them over to their parents. The news of the repeated appeals reached Norway's Special Envoy for the peace process, Jon Hanssen Bauer in Oslo.

He telephoned the Special Advisor to the President, Basil Rajapaksa, to ascertain whether the Government had declared war on the LTTE. A surprised Mr. Rajapaksa said "there is no such thing" and asked whether he learnt it from LTTE circles. He had said that the Government remained committed to the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). Bauer took the opportunity to tell Mr. Rajapaksa that he would be on his way later that day to Reykjavik, the Icelandic capital to discuss matters relating to the SLMM. Yet, there were Colombo-based diplomats who opined that a call for rebels to surrender ran counter to the CFA. But a senior official argued "as the Government of a sovereign nation, we only offered to look after those who wanted to give up violence."

Last Sunday, the string of battles near Muhamalai resumed. Guerrillas directed artillery at several points. In addition it was also directed at the Security Forces Headquarters in Jaffna including the Air Force base. An Air Force Mi-24 gunship was hit. It was damaged but the pilot landed it safely. At least three shells fell near the Northern Naval Area Headquarters in Kankesanthurai.

Throughout the week the fighting near Muhamalai continued. To the credit of the officers and men in the area, they resisted it with counter fire. Hence, the guerrillas were unsuccessful in penetrating the peninsula. The troops fell back from the main defences at Muhamalai where the makeshift building of the entry-exit point was badly damaged. This was a tactical withdrawal and set in such a way as to draw the enemy into a wider area. Besides the day-to-day attacks, a major thrust also came on Thursday. In the heavy fighting at least 28 guerrillas were killed. Their bodies were transported to the mortuary of the Jaffna hospital. They are to be handed over to the ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross) On Friday troops embarked on an offensive to re-capture the original defence lines that existed after the ceasefire. They had advanced when guerrilla artillery and mortar fire began to rain on them. Troops successfully repulsed attempts by guerrillas to land on the sea front at Nagerkovil. Artillery and Mortar attacks forced the guerrillas to withdraw from there. However, subsequent developments led to a setback and left behind some casualties. The Air Force thereafter retaliated with air strikes at guerrilla camps near Kilinochchi and Elephant Pass. Since the operation is ongoing, I will not comment any further. Army Headquarters moved in promptly to evacuate the casualties. The injured were sent to some of the Government-run hospitals in the Colombo district where staff and doctors were providing them medical care. Security in those areas was also heightened.

Seizing on Friday's incident, the guerrillas launched another wave of attacks at the Muhamalai defences yesterday. Troops fought back and foiled their attempts. Later the guerrillas withdrew. Reports from Wanni say new LTTE units that were depleted after the cadres had died or were wounded, have now been deployed. It came to light that LTTE had made plans for this purpose during the ceasefire. Radio intercepts confirmed the emergence of the units with new call signs. They were manned by new cadres, an indication that the guerrillas were getting set to prolong a siege they want to place on Jaffna. One intelligence source said "they want to drag this on until the North-East monsoon breaks out in October."

With that in mind the guerrillas have directed artillery fire on the Air Force base and the runway at Palaly daily from August 11. Military and civilian flights to the area remain cancelled. This week an Air Force cargo plane was the only one to make a landing whilst a reconnaissance aircraft played the role of an "eye in the sky" observing guerrilla positions from where gunfire could be directed. On an earlier occasion, a reconnaissance flight had spotted a guerrilla gun position. This was later attacked by Kfir jets. Subsequent reconnaissance flights confirmed that the gun had been damaged beyond workability by this strike.

If the artillery fire on Palaly has halted the regular fixed wing aircraft movements there, similar actions in the East have also had their impact. On two successive occasions the guerrillas, for the first time during the separatist war, directed artillery on the Eastern Naval Area headquarters in Trincomalee. The first came on August 1. The guerrillas attacked Mutur and adjoining areas. It left six sailors dead whilst 18 others were wounded. Thereafter, on August 11 guerrillas again directed artillery fire at this major naval base. One sailor was killed and another wounded. On this occasion artillery fire was also directed at the Air Force base at China Bay.

The LTTE is using Sampur and adjoining areas, overlooking the Trincomalee harbour, to direct artillery. Though they tried to expand the land area they dominate by seizing more territory during attacks on Mutur and its suburbs, they failed. Yet, the use of Sampur area has helped them virtually cripple the working of the Trincomalee port. Hence, the guerrilla action in the Jaffna peninsula and in Trincomalee has hampered air and sea movements, if not totally, at least to a considerable degree.

In these circumstances it is no secret that the Security Forces will have to embark on counter measures to break the developing stalemate situation. Until now their role has remained very largely a defensive one where they have denied the rebels attempts to infiltrate the Jaffna peninsula, easily the key focal point in the ongoing battles of Eelam War IV. For such a purpose, they would have to evolve measures to ensure that the Security Forces Headquarters (SFHQ) in Palaly is secure and free from guerrilla artillery fire. The same applies to the Eastern Naval Area Headquarters in Trincomalee. The ground the guerrillas hold in Sampur will continue to remain a threat unless they are evicted. Those are the major challenges before the country's security establishment. There is no doubt the LTTE will continue to exert military pressure to retain this situation.

That would become a dilemma for the Government. Ensuring that the tasks before the Security Forces are accomplished would only mean an expansion of the current "defensive role" they are playing. Thus the ongoing Eelam War IV will spill over to unprecedented high levels. Already the Government is under international pressure to halt the war and revert to peace talks.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa has repeatedly re-iterated this week that the Government's posture in the ongoing fighting was defensive and came in the wake of guerrilla attacks. A corollary to this assertion would mean that until the LTTE continued their attacks, the Security Forces will play that "defensive" role, a move which would escalate and even prolong the ongoing war. An alternative that cannot be ruled out, would be the formulation of an exit strategy that will de-escalate the fighting without loss of face and adverse political effects.

A signal in this direction came yesterday when the Government strongly welcomed the decision of Iceland to increase its contingent to the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM). An official statement said "the government appreciates the efforts taken by the Royal Norwegian Government to reinforce the institutional structure of the SLMM which is a critical element in maintaining the current Ceasefire."

The statement added: "The Government will continue to support the work of the strengthened SLMM and continue to provide security guarantees for all members of the SLMM including those from European Union countries. The Government calls upon the LTTE to desist from using extraneous political and propaganda issues to undermine the operations of the SLMM."

During his latest visit to Sri Lanka, Mr. Bauer discussed both with Government and LTTE leaders about the expansion of the SLMM. This is with the increase of Iceland and Norwegian members, a move, which won the approval of both sides. A Norwegian monitor is expected to act as Head of SLMM after the exit of the present incumbent, retired Swedish Major General Jon Henriccson. Thereafter Mr. Baur discerned that the commitments he won also came as fresh endorsement by the two sides of the Ceasefire Agreement. However, even an expanded SLMM would have to wait for a halt in fighting and obtain security guarantees from the LTTE. This is to revert to the role they played when the ceasefire came into effect.

Here in lie the dilemmas - for the Government to find ways to prevent an attempt by the LTTE to place a siege on the Jaffna peninsula, the Trincomalee Port and de-escalate or call off the fighting. It is then that the SLMM will find the correct environment to play its role. But the key to these issues lies in the hands of the LTTE. The critical question is whether it would, in the wake of last week's beatings and the strings of air attacks by the Air Force on LTTE targets, willingly call a halt to its military action. Such a course is extremely unlikely. Any requests to do so will only lead to greater demands from the Government since they do not want to be perceived as relenting in the aftermath of what may be projected as a defeat.

It was only on Friday that the Government received very credible reports of an LTTE attack on the City of Colombo. It came when security was tightened after intelligence authorities received an earlier warning of a vehicle loaded with explosives entering the City. This led to severe confusion on Friday night. Police were ordered to check every vehicle entering the City. The result was mile long queues whilst motorists had to wait their turn to be cleared at check points.

There were also some nervous moments for the personal security staff assigned for President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He had arrived on Friday afternoon to declare open the SAF games at the Sugathadasa Stadium.

The head of an elite Police arm specializing in personal security, respected for his expertise, spotted a woman in Salwar Kameez seated next to an invitee. Alarm was raised when she could not be identified for well over half an hour. It later came to light that she was a domestic aide of a Minister. Personal protection bosses of President Rajapaksa were very unhappy that Ministers were bringing in their domestics to enclosures closer to where the President was. They feared it would be a serious security risk. It was such a domestic working in the house of the son of a politician who was involved in a plot to carry out a suicide attack on Douglas Devananda, the leader of the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP). She exploded herself at the Kollupitiya Police Station after she was detected moving suspiciously at his Ministry.

Two other major developments this week have also generated controversies. One is the LTTE allegation that the Air Force bombed the "Sencholai" orphanage where some 60 school children were reportedly killed. The Government denied the allegations strongly. It said the Air Force had conducted the air raid last Monday morning on an LTTE training camp. This had been done after Air Force had conducted aerial surveillance and obtained confirmation. Another was an LTTE attempt on the life of Pakistan's outgoing High Commissioner, Bashir Wali Mohamed. A one time Colonel and high ranking officer in Pakistan's Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) organization, Mr. Mohamed has won acclaim for cracking Al Qaeda cells in his country. He was particularly commended by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) for his role in their war on terror. Separate reports on the controversy over the air raid and the attempt on Mr. Mohamed appear elsewhere in this edition of the newspaper.

Last Sunday, the security forces also seized full control of the Mavil Aru anicut. This came when the operation by some 2,000 troops that began on July 28 ended on August 13, sixteen days after it was launched. Whilst consolidating their positions in an around the area, they have come up against an uphill task - clearing land mines and other booby traps left by the guerrillas. They were also encountering sporadic guerrilla fire.

As the Eelam War rages, the question that looms large now is what the coming weeks hold for Sri Lankans. Will it be more battles or a return to peace talks? This is in a war where the two sides, the Government and the LTTE, claim they are resorting to "defensive action." They are also repeatedly re-iterating their commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement.