With jackboots and Khaki uiform on, Musharraf is set for another term

Even after an oppressive check at the Delhi airport, the Pakistan Airlines frisks you through its own security personnel before you can board the plane.

It is cumbersome, but underlines Islamabad's fear it faces from terrorist attacks. The frisking has continued since the days of General Zia-ul Haq, a military ruler who himself introduced terrorism to diplomacy and politics to get "dividends." Pakistan is paying the price for it. Yet what one remembers about Zia more than terrorism is that the election he promised within 90 days of his takeover was never held. And he stayed on for 11 years.

President General Pervez Musharraf is following in his footsteps. He has been in power for seven years. He too had vowed to take off the uniform by the end of December 2004 but has not done so. He has the National Assembly's "sanction" to go on till November 2007 but that is a "managed" one. What is disconcerting is that he looks like having another five-year term with the jackboots and the khaki uniform on.

Knowledgeable persons at Lahore told me that he would get himself re-elected by the present National Assembly and the provincial legislatures since there was no constitutional bar. True, but it would look odd that the assemblies which end their tenure in November 2007 should elect the President who continues till November 2012. Some experts point out that he would require a constitutional amendment if he wanted to occupy two offices _ those of the President and chief of the army staff. This eventuality may be difficult to get over but not impossible, knowing the helplessness of national and state assemblies.

Another reason is that the opposition is divided and dispirited. The main political party in the National Assembly, the Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam), which is the King's party, has already announced its support to his re-election. The combination of religious parties, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), is opposed to the idea but it may cave in as it has done in the case of women's legislation which was amended to shift the blame for rape on the perpetrator of the crime in place of victim, the earlier practice. The MMA had threatened to resign from the National Assembly and the NWFP government which it controlled. The MMA even collected the letters of resignation but did not submit them to the respective Speakers. Apart from the usual diffidence, I believe that Benazir Bhutto also advised them not to quit the assemblies lest it should provide the military junta with a pretext to postpone elections.

Whatever the considerations, the fact of military is too stark to ignore. This is also because of Musharraf's daily obiter dicta which newspapers and the TV networks carry dutifully with his photo. People also annoyingly find the best of civil jobs continue to be filled by the serving or former military officials. They occupy large tracts of land which is the reward given to them for 'service' in the military.

In fact, the military is the new feudal face of Pakistan, a land-owning class, in league with other vested interests.

People mince no words when it comes to criticising the military. Yet they talk about it within the four walls and even check whether someone is watching them. They have adjusted themselves to the reality of military rule which it seems to have become a habit of sorts. It should not come as a surprise because out of the span of 60 years, they have had 50 years of military rule. It does not look that things will change even after the 2007 elections. One, they might be rigged as before. And, two, whatever the outcome, the military is there to stay.

The scenario would change if Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were to return. A Nepal-like situation could take place with lakhs of people coming out on the streets. For this, both will have to fix a firm date and make it public. Many in Pakistan are pretty sure that Musharraf would not be able to arrest the two or send them back after the announcement of the election schedule. However, there is a deliberate effort to create a cleavage between Benazir and Nawaz Sharif. The impression spread is that Musharraf is talking to Benazir through back channels so as to have someone other than Benazir from her Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to head the next government. Earlier in the year, when I met her at London, she categorically denied having any truck with the army.

What surprises me is the military junta's effort to reach some "understanding" with liberal forces in Pakistan. Persons like Dr Mubashir Husain, Finance Minister in the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto cabinet, have been sounded. Shahbaz Sharif, former Punjab chief minister, was reportedly approached. But he refused to part company with his brother Nawaz Sharif who was intractable on any rapprochement with Musharraf. He told me at London that the Pakistan military would have to be like the Indian army, apolitical and engaged only in the country's defence.

Musharraf's dislike for Nawaz Sharif is not a secret. He would like to make a dent in Nawaz Sharif's support since it is mainly the erstwhile Muslim League which is behind him. What Musharraf seems to have in mind is to have an alliance with non-religious parties to fight against religious elements which he himself supported in the last election. It has dawned on him, though belatedly, that the Frankenstein of terrorism which he resurrected may destroy Pakistan as well.

The American support, his asset, is there. But he has realised that the more fight he puts against terrorists, the more acceptable he is to America. (When I was at Lahore, the US forces destroyed a madrasa killing several people, proving once again that America could do anything in Pakistan to serve its "interest.")

And while he has that equation with President Bush, Musharraf can get away with the potshots he takes at India. Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee's visit to Islamabad to invite Musharraf to the SAARC summit at Delhi in April may begin the process of conciliation. But both countries have a long way to go before Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's dream to have breakfast at Amristar and lunch at Lahore comes true.