Crossovers and accountability

President Mahinda Rajapaksa probably pulled off one of the biggest trumps in recent years with a sizable number of UNP parliamentarians crossing over to government ranks.

Yet, even though the President’s master move won the day for the ruling party, has the country benefited?

The crossovers have left a country with a more hard line opposition – now that the JVP is bound to oppose Rajapaksa’s every move while flexing its muscles for a series of national strikes -- an inept UNP and a business community that would be scrambling to move forward.

The main opposing party, the UNP, has been considerably weakened with its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe unable to stem the outflow. And a weak opposition is not good for the country and business sentiment.

While the economy is unlikely to get affected by some negative sentiment -- forget the stock market which shouldn’t be considered a barometer of business confidence - many issues of accountability are certain to be thrown out of the window. Look at the size of the jumbo cabinet; even some ministers, in public and in private, have expressed concerns about it but conceded it was more viable than a costly election. Others who joined from the opposition are joking about it and acknowledging that they may have created a world record!

Then what about the UNP’s self-proclaimed Finance Minister cum economic specialist Bandula Gunawardene who has been taking up a lot of newspaper space in recent times with his commentaries on the economy and how badly the Central Bank and its governor Nivard Cabraal are managing interest rates and the exchange rate?

He has accused the Central Bank of printing money to feed the budget deficit and government spending, bashed Mahinda Chintanaya and believes the country is heading towards bankruptcy. What is his position now – or was the buzz and the fuss just a façade, a game show in the media to make a name for himself?

With the crossovers being played out in public all week long and Rajapaksa armed with a stronger government, peace talks are most likely to be put on the backburner at least for an interim period while the President ‘plods’ along with his dual strategy of militarily weakening the Tigers before a resumption of the peace process.

The political drama that has been going on for months with infighting in the UNP and its reformists taking on the old guard is also setting off another serious trend: brain drain.

Many professionals and all who have job offers overseas are packing their bags and migrating.

The flurry of Australian migration experts in Colombo (mostly Australian-based Sri Lankan lawyers and consultants) in recent weeks is an indication of the demand from Sri Lankans for proper advice on migration.

Three years ago – when the peace process got going – there were many expatriates who were seriously considering returning to Sri Lanka. Some did return home. That was reverse migration.

Now the present impasse in peace talks and political uncertainty has resulted in a rush for jobs in countries that are attracting professionals, academics and technicians. Many don’t see a future for themselves and their families in Sri Lanka, according to letters from the public that this paper has received.

Notwithstanding the brain drain and political realities … the economy will continue on its upward trend as seen in recent years given the resilient nature of Sri Lankans and the business community. Inflation, however, is expected to rise as government spending soars with additional demand from new ministers including Gunawardene… and the printing of money inevitably happening. Ironically former UNP stalwarts like Sarath Amunugama, Rohitha Bogollagama and even Gunawardene would be the government’s bulwark against negative sentiment on foreign investment, international and economic pressures.

With the IMF closing its office in Colombo, the call for accountability and transparency would come loudest from civil society groups. Whether the government would take note or even care remains to be seen.