Children from poorer families typically have less educated parents and fewer educational resources at home, which constrain their performance

The people of Sri Lanka have several popular pastimes, such as playing and watching cricket, discussing politics, and criticizing the country’s education system. Some of these pastimes are shared with other countries: cricket and politics with much of the rest of South Asia, and criticizing the education system with much of the rest of the world. The newspapers in countries around the globe appear to be fond of carrying articles criticizing their education systems, almost as much as they seem to be fond of carrying articles discussing the private and public lives of celebrity actresses and actors. And many of these articles, like the ancient Athenians after the age of Pericles, and the ancient Romans after the sack of Rome, bemoan a decline from a former golden age in the past.

The truth, for Sri Lanka as for nearly all other countries in the world, is the exact opposite. The education system now, taken as a whole and on the average, is the most complete and advanced there has ever been in the country’s history. In distant past generations, the mythical “former golden age”, there existed a small elite who were well-educated, and a large mass of people who were either poorly educated or not educated at all. Education systems expanded to cover the entire population only in modern times.

This historic process commenced, in some developed countries, in the 19th century; and in a few developing countries, which included Sri Lanka, in the middle decades of the 20th century. In many other developing countries efforts to provide all children with a minimum level of education commenced only in the late 20th century. In virtually all these countries, as the education system moved from a small elite system to a large mass system, the average level of learning initially declined.

In the language of those fabled beings, “economists”, there is a trade-off between quantity and quality at the outset. Children from poorer families typically have less educated parents and fewer educational resources at home, which constrain their performance. Also, as the government expands the public education system, the pressure on resources grows, and it is almost impossible to produce schools of equal quality right from the outset. However, over time, as the education systems of countries grow and develop, there comes an important turning point, a crossing of the Rubicon, when average learning levels begin to rise again. This pattern of a “U” shaped curve, with learning outcomes decreasing initially as an elite education system moves to a mass education system, and then improving later, has been observed around the world.

The Sri Lankan education system appears to have reached and crossed this important turning point. The evidence, from a number of sources, suggests that average learning levels are rising. The National Assessments of Learning Outcomes, conducted by the National Education Research and Evaluation Centre (NEREC) of the University of Colombo, show that learning outcomes are rising among primary school children in mathematics, English and First Language (Sinhalese and Tamil). Further, the analysis of factors determining learning outcomes suggest that the education system, in addition to home and child specific factors, is contributing to the cognitive achievement of children (see the econometric analysis of learning outcomes in the World Bank’s report Treasures of the Education System in Sri Lanka).

The time trend of GCE O/L pass rates, defined as students qualifying for the GCE A/L, is also positive and increasing. In 1996 only 26 percent of candidates passed the GCE O/L. By 2002 the GCE O/L pass rate had increased to 42 percent, and in 2007 had risen further to 49 percent. There may well be very few public sectors in Sri Lanka which can shown such an improvement, of nearly 90 percent, during a period of approximately a decade. Overall, the available empirical evidence clearly suggests that learning levels are indeed rising, and that the public education system is making a positive contribution.

Pessimistic individuals, it is possible, will argue that the improvements in learning are due to the test papers becoming easier. However, the NEREC studies of cognitive achievement are based on a carefully controlled process, with the same confidential test paper being used over time. There is also no scientific evidence that the GCE O/L test papers have become easier over time. On the contrary, the main stakeholders, the successive cohorts of students who appear for the examination, appear to believe that there is a deep and hidden conspiracy to make the paper more difficult for their batch than for their predecessors!

The major criticism that arose after the GCE O/L results for 2006 were published last year, that the quality of the education system was declining, was simply wrong. Instead, the quality of the education system has been improving over time, as the trend of the GCE O/L results demonstrates.

The single distinctive factor last year was that the Department of Examinations released the national GCE O/L pass rates publicly for the first time on their website. Many readers, who were blissfully unaware that pass rates in the past had been lower, appear to have leaped to the conclusion that the quality of education had declined because “only 48 percent” had passed the GCE O/L! These readers (and writers to the newspapers) did not pause to think that a categorical statement of a “decline” cannot be made on the basis of a single observation. A judgement of a decline requires at least two observations, and of course preferably several. And the several observations on GCE O/L pass rates show a continuous improvement over time, not a decline.

This does not mean, of course, that the general education system is now perfect. There are many and considerable challenges left, including improving the general education system sufficiently to enable all children to pass the GCE O/L examination. But the tide in the affairs of the education system has been taken at the flood and successfully crossed. Learning levels are rising in both primary and secondary education. Instead of being pessimistic and downcast, and yearning for a mythical former golden age of education, the country should be optimistic and positive.

Education systems are vast oceans, which have not been fully mapped yet. Even countries and regions which perform best in the world in international tests of learning outcomes, such as South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Austria, can and do introduce policies to develop their education systems further. Sri Lanka still has probably the best general education system, taken as a whole and on the average, in South Asia. The challenge, of course, is to emulate more advanced and developed education systems. The evidence of improving learning levels should encourage policy makers to strengthen the implementation of the current Education Sector Development Framework and Program, and to embark on even more ambitious reforms in the future.