Sri Lanka's giant neighbour, India blinked this time. If it raved and ranted over the ongoing separatist war and the resultant humanitarian issues in the past weeks, just seven days ago, India seemed to relent.
There was the threat of members of major Tamil Nadu political parties resigning their seats in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha (the Indian Parliament) last Wednesday. This was if the central government did not put pressure to stop the war in Sri Lanka, go for a ceasefire with the LTTE, and discuss a political solution to the island's 'ethnic problem'. Contrary to formal denials, the Congress government did imply this strongly in messages it delivered to Colombo. One was through Sri Lanka's envoy to New Delhi. The other came through India's envoy to Sri Lanka.
After closed-door discussions at Temple Trees, it was the President's powerful brother and Defence Secretary, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, who delivered the answer publicly. He declared that the ongoing war against Tiger guerrillas would not be called off until they were defeated.
With that over, Sri Lanka was keen to articulate its position on issues that were of concern to India. At first, plans were to make it known at the highest levels with President's Rajapaksa's two special envoys - Secretary Lalith Weeratunga and Senior Advisor Basil Rajapaksa - calling on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. However, the bureaucracy in New Delhi was playing hardball. At first, it said a Pakistani delegation was in the Indian capital. When confirmation of the date (for last Sunday) came, Dr. Singh, who was on a trip to Japan and China, was yet to return.
That was how Basil Rajapaksa ended up meeting Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan and Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon last Sunday. Like his brother, the President of Sri Lanka, he was clad in the customary national dress with a Kurakkan colour Sataka (or a maroon shawl) around his neck.
The few days ahead of Basil's visit also saw a great deal of hype. Tamil media reports in Sri Lanka spoke of India considering imposing a 'No-Fly Zone' over the northern skies of Sri Lanka, ostensibly to protect civilians. Once such a zone was in place, any bombing sorties by the Air Force would have meant that Indian fighter jets shooting down SLAF jets. They were drawing the example of the events in Iraq after the Gulf War in 1991. The United States, Britain and France declared No-Fly Zones in northern and southern Iraq to protect 'humanitarian operations'.
The three nations claimed the United Nations Security Council Resolution 688 authorised such operations; it is well known that it contained no specific authorisation. France withdrew in 1998. Then UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali later described these No Fly Zones as illegal.
The Tamil media reports did cause a minor flutter in the dovecotes of power in Colombo. It later transpired that some Tamil National Alliance parliamentarians who were overjoyed by the uprising in Tamil Nadu against Sri Lanka and the anger displayed by the central Government in New Delhi, were behind the reports. Whether the stories were their 'own invention', or based on something they were made to believe by sections of the bureaucracy in New Delhi still remains a mystery. Of course, there were no official comments or denials. Either way, the news reports projected what seemed an increasingly hostile mood rising to new proportions in New Delhi.
It is against this backdrop that good advice came from India's High Commissioner Alok Prasad. He told President Rajapaksa to telephone Premier Singh. That is not all. Through diplomatic channels, he paved the way for Dr. Singh to accept the call. If the tenor of the statement issued by the Prime Minister's office in New Delhi, and the subsequent one from the Sri Lankan President's office in Colombo, were somewhat harsh, and each only giving their version of the conversation, all this was to change after Basil Rajapaksa's visit.
The political scorecard after his visit to New Delhi is two fold; concessions gained by the government of Sri Lanka and those gained by the Congress government in New Delhi. This emerges after a close study of the two Joint Statements issued both in New Delhi and Colombo.
GAINS FOR SRI LANKA:
- The Congress government reiterated once more its (tacit) support for the ongoing military campaign against Tiger guerrillas when the Joint Statement declared "both sides agreed that terrorism should be countered with resolve." The use of the word "with resolve," clearly amounts to the rejection of the demand by major political parties in Tamil Nadu led by DMK leader Muthuvel Karunanidhi to stop the war. It also amounts to a firm commitment from New Delhi towards the military campaign to defeat terrorism. More importantly, the Government of India agrees that the war should continue. By making the latest statement with emphasis on the word "with resolve" makes clear there is no shift in the Indian position vis-à-vis terrorism. It is only as far as a settlement to the ethnic conflict that India says there is no military solution.
- Though India conveyed "its concern over the humanitarian situation" in the north, New Delhi accepted Sri Lanka's assurance "that the safety and well-being of the Tamil community in Sri Lanka is being taken care of." In other words, misconceptions over large-scale suffering by Tamil civilians have been cleared. Sri Lanka was to tell India that it had made preparations to look after the civilians, but the guerrillas had prevented them from coming to Vavuniya.
After all the hemming and hawing, India has praised President Rajapaksa for his initiatives in reaching out to the Congress government. The Joint Statement said "the Indian side appreciated deeply the initiative of President Mahinda Rajapaksa to send his special envoy."
GAINS FOR INDIA:
- Though not explicitly spelt out, India won an endorsement from Sri Lanka to allow its fishermen to operate in Sri Lankan waters, as the Joint Statement said, "in view of the humanitarian and livelihood dimensions involved…"
The exceptions would be "the practical arrangements, following the designation by the Government of Sri Lanka of sensitive areas along the Sri Lankan coastline and their intimation to the Government of India."
Whilst "Indian fishing vessels will not venture into these identified sensitive areas," the Joint Statement adds "it was agreed that Indian fishing vessels would carry valid registration /permit and the fishermen would have on person valid identity cards issued by the government of Tamil Nadu."
The move was interpreted to Dr. Karunanidhi as a major concession from Sri Lanka. Yet, in practice Indian fishermen continue to fish in Sri Lankan waters.
India persuaded Sri Lanka "to facilitate the delivery" of 800 tons of relief material to Tamil civilians in the north.
Karunanidhi had been told that the relief will go direct to the civilians in the north through channels chosen by New Delhi and that the Government would "facilitate all such measures."
The Sri Lanka Government appeared to have no quarrel over this move. The food supplies will arrive in Sri Lankan in accordance with laid down procedures. Hence, distribution of them by any legal entity in keeping with the existing laws, it feels, is not a problem. A spokesman for the Indian High Commission in Colombo told this newspaper that this food will be given directly to the Sri Lankan Government for distribution.
- Won a commitment from the government of Sri Lanka "for the implementation of the 13th Amendment and greater devolution of powers to the provinces." However, it must be remembered that this is not the first time New Delhi has sought and obtained similar assurances. In fact, the non implementation of such assurances prompted Premier Singh, according to diplomatic circles, to avoid a meeting with President Rajapaksa on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly sessions in September.
Even before Basil Rajapaksa could return to Colombo after talks in New Delhi, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee had flown to Chennai for a meeting with Karunanidhi. He had, among other matters, told the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister the fishing rights concessions won for fishermen in his state. He had also said how the centre, heeding to the concerns of the Tamil Nadu political leaders, persuaded the Sri Lanka government to "facilitate the delivery" of 800 tons of food directly to affected civilians in the north. Karunanidhi readily agreed to call off his agitation campaign including resignation threats that was to take effect last Wednesday. Little wonder, his archrival Jeyalalitha Jeyaram (AIADMK) called his campaign a hoax on the people of Tamil Nadu.
In the wake of Basil Rajapaksa's visit, JVP leader Somawansa Amerasinghe, charged that he had given an undertaking to New Delhi not to carry out bombing raids in the Wanni. However, on Tuesday, just the day after his return to Colombo, Air Force jets pounded guerrilla positions in Puthukudiyiruppu. The pro-LTTE web site Tamilnet was to claim that the bombings killed a 16-year-old student and seriously wounded another.
The Indian climb down surprised even the Mahinda Rajapaksa administration. Before Basil Rajapaksa's visit to New Delhi, government leaders were not sure of a favourable outcome. So much so, President Rajapaksa sought to keep the Opposition informed of developments. This is why he met Opposition UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. Thus, by hindsight, the Government restraint preventing a debate on the Indian issue in Parliament, publicly exhorting the good relations between the two countries and not heeding the advice of NFF leader Wimal Weerawansa and JHU's Champika Ranawaka to take a tough line, paid off. They avoided further fuel to an already volatile situation and highlighted that the Government was not being guided by the duo on the Indian issue.
Why did the Congress government blink after roaring rapturously to the polity in Tamil Nadu and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in Sri Lanka? The reasons appear to be many. According to sections of the bureaucracy in New Delhi, reports reaching Colombo said, the Congress government did not want to strengthen further the Mahinda Rajapaksa administration by engaging it on a collision course. Any attempt to hamper the war effort or raising related issues or threatening precipitate action would only help him accuse India and thus win more sympathy from the south. Such a reaction, the reports said, would have only helped an "impotent Opposition in Sri Lanka." Other reports said it would be disadvantageous to up the ante in Sri Lanka when general elections in India are scheduled for early next year.
Against this backdrop, a visit to New Delhi by Opposition Leader Wickremesinghe, for talks with leaders there has been stalled. However, Wickremesinghe is headed for Japan together with a Buddhist delegation spearheaded by the chief incumbent of the Kelaniya Raja Maha Vihara, Dr. Kollupitiye Mahinda Sangharakhita Thera next week and will miss the budget proposals which President Mahinda Rajapaksa (who is also Minister of Finance) will introduce in Parliament on Thursday. He will, however, return for the budget debate itself, according to his staff.
The budget comes at a time when economic woes for Sri Lanka are on a steep increase. Days ago, for the first time in more than one and a quarter century, over fifty per cent of the tea up for sale at the Colombo Auctions was not sold. The Tea Board had to spend Rs. 231.5 Million from its Stabilisation Fund to purchase 917,000 kilos of tea from the auction. Its spiralling effect portends to wreck the tea industry.
On Thursday, in the backdrop of global recession, the Government de-linked the rupee from the US dollar. Allowed to float, the rupee shot from Rs 108 to Rs 110 to the dollar on the first day itself. Tea exporters want the Rupee to depreciate to as much as Rs. 120 per US dollar for it to be favourable to the industry.
In the meantime, the US$ 150 Million and more bailout proposal for the garment and other sectors if the European Union does not extend the duty free concessions under its GSP+ scheme, has also become a problem. The government needs to work out the bailout package without contravening the WTO (World Trade Organisation) provisions where governments are prohibited from directly funding exporters.
With the Government now having to bail out the country's main exporters and foreign exchange earners, an ordinary citizen will naturally ask from where the money will come? There is a costly war on the other side. Next week's Budget will provide an answer? Or will it? Budgets, alas are now seen as 'fudge jobs', with Government's increasingly going for supplementary estimates throughout the year, and no-one really knowing how the money comes, other than by - printing it. The result of that is then seen by all and sundry - inflation. |
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