The Mumbai terror attack will have only a temporary setback in the Indo-Pakistan peace process, says a South Asian expert.
Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, president of the Islamabad-based Policy Research Institute (PRI), delivering a lecture on the Indo-Pak Peace Process at the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies on Friday said periodically non-state actors, meaning terrorists, had struck in the sub continent, but the implication of their actions had only dealt temporary blows to the relations between the two countries or to the peace process which began in 2004 in Islamabad during the 12th South Asian summit.
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| Prof. Cheema at BCIS on Friday |
He said the current crisis had been complicated by various processes operating at different levels, main among them being the ongoing state elections in India and the soon-to-be-held general elections. Politicians would capitalize on the situation by provoking anti-Pakistan emotions, Prof. Cheema said, adding that people in India's Hindi-belt were more susceptible to anti-Pakistan slogans than those in the south.
He said it was unfair to put the blame on Pakistan even before the fire at the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel was doused.
"This was not the first time, Indian politicians have pointed an accusing finger at Pakistan when a terror attack took place in India. For instance, Pakistan was blamed, when the Indian Parliament building came under attack in 2001. Pakistan was blamed when the Samjutha Express train attack took place in 2007. The recent Malegaon attack was not carried out by Pakistanis. Why do they always point the finger at Pakistan," the learned professor, who has written some 20 books on politics, including "The Armed Forces of Pakistan," said. "All these attacks were carried out by Indians. A senior Indian army official was arrested in connection with the Malegaon bomb blast."
Prof. Cheema said a Rand Corporation analyst had advised India to look also inwards for homegrown terrorists instead of blaming Pakistan.
When asked about who he thought was responsible for the attack, Prof. Cheema, who had headed the Departments of International Relations and Strategic Studies at the Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad for 14 years before he joined the PRI, said it was difficult to say who carried out the Mumbai attack. "I cannot point a finger at any one. What we have is circumstantial evidence. If one says it is Pakistan, that person must have some magical power. There are a lot of angles to be investigated, including the events leading to the deaths of Mumbai's top anti-terror police officer," Prof. Cheema said.
He said he did not believe that the terror group Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) was behind the attacks. He said the LeT dismantled and converted itself into a humanitarian aid group when Pakistan banned it in 2002. The group which now operated under the name Jamath-ul Dawa played a key role in helping the 2005 earthquake victims in Azad Kashmir, but the government was keeping a constant watch on it, the professor said.
From war to peace
He also dismissed allegations that Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) had a role in the Mumbai attacks.
In a tounge-in-cheek remark, the professor said he was proud to be a Pakistani, when the Indians put the blame on ISI. “They believe the ISI can do anything anywhere in the world.”
Asked whether there was a conspiracy behind the Mumbai attack with the intention of denuclearizing Pakistan, the professor said there were various international forces working towards that end.
Delving deeper into the subject matter of his lecture - the Indo-Pakistan peace process - Prof. Cheema said the relations between the two countries have improved from a war phase to crisis phase and to the peace process. He said there had been many Indo-Pakistan peace processes but what began in Islamabad at a meeting with the then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and the then Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf on the sidelines of the 12th South Asian summit had survived many a challenge.
Prof. Cheema identified three main factors that had sustained the peace process. The first of these factors was the chemistry between the leaders of the two countries. "They understand each other's limitations and, therefore, there were no undue demands or pressure on the other," he said.
The second factor was the increasing interest shown by major powers in the peace process.
Describing the big power interest in Indo-Pak affairs before the 1998 nuclear tests by both countries as "Fire Brigade Approach," Prof. Cheema said the world powers were showing a greater interest now to make peace between the two nuclear neighbours.
"They are worried about the command and control methods of nuclear weapons in the context of hostilities," he said.
The third factor was Indian parliamentary politics. The 2004 peace process was started by a BJP prime minister but in the elections held a few months later, the BJP was pushed into the opposition while the mantle of carrying forward the peace process fell on the new Congress-led government. The BJP could not oppose the peace process because it was Vajpayee who together with Musharraf initiated the process, Prof. Cheema said.
He said that together with these factors, the increasing trade ties and people-to-people contacts had also contributed to the peace process, which covered a wide range of issues, including the Siachen crisis, the Water dispute and terrorism. "But there cannot be genuine peace, unless the Kashmiri crisis is solved," Prof. Cheema said "We must bring the Kashmiri people on board the peace process."
He said the representatives of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and Indian-controlled Kashmir together with Kashmiri freedom fighters should be allowed to participate in the peace talks and express their ideas about a final solution to the Kashmiri problem.` |
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