Barely six months after Tiger guerrillas were defeated militarily; Sri Lanka's political landscape is fast changing.
After that defeat in May, this year, the UPFA Government found itself in a solid rock, unassailable position. Then, the exacerbating euphoria drowned the voices of the opposition and crowned the UPFA as an unshakable Government. Is that glory now waning both locally and internationally? Fast changing politico-military developments, mounting living costs, continuing curbs on the media to deny the public knowledge of day-to-day developments, a reported increase in already rampant bribery and corruption and trade union and student agitation, are just a handful from a catalogue of reasons that raise this all-important question.
On the domestic front, it was only 16 days ago, a false scare of a coup to subvert the democratic system jolted the Government. In the front page of October 11 and in these columns last week, the Sunday Times revealed details of the events that worried UPFA leaders for many hours. However, they heaved a sigh of relief later when it turned out that it was much ado about nothing.
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| The JVP march against the executive presidency. Pic by Saman Kariyawasam |
Yet, this week, events continued to resonate in Colombo's diplomatic community. Their concerns grew that such a development had come after the armed services and the police had delivered a historic victory to the Government. There was comfort that those victors were not to become the vanquished by a false alarm. Nevertheless, the heavy deployment of troops, which some claimed was higher than during the height of the separatist war, was cause for worry particularly among some Western diplomats. They feared the events that later turned out to be a non-event sent the wrong signal to the outside world -- despite the conclusion of the war, there was still growing signs of instability. That certainly was not good news for a tourism industry that is picking up after the ravages of war or for would-be investors.
More details of what happened emerged this week. The Sunday Times learnt that upon hearing initial reports of an attempt to disturb the life of the community, possibly on the night of Thursday, October 15, President Mahinda Rajapaksa telephoned India's National Security Advisor, M.K. Narayanan to apprise him of what was then perceived as a threatening situation. The latter had in turn briefed Congress Government leaders in New Delhi including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
As revealed last week, it is thereafter that Indian paratroopers and other security units in a South Indian military base were put on 'high alert'. With that done, President Rajapaksa sought an immediate meeting on Thursday night with outgoing Indian High Commissioner Alok Prasad. He had spoken to him earlier on the telephone.
Immediately thereafter, a heavily armed presidential security detail moved in vehicles to 'India House', the official residence of the Indian High Commissioner, at Munidasa Kumaratunga Mawatha (former Thurstan Road) to escort Prasad. In addition, he had a posse of Indian Black Cats commandos protecting him. Travelling in the presidential security convoy accompanying Prasad to 'Temple Trees' was businessman Tiru Nadesan, a close associate of the departing Indian High Commissioner. He is the husband of Nirupama Rajapaksa, a niece of the President and UPFA MP for Hambantota district. Mr. Nadesan is also a close associate of many Government leaders.
At 'Temple Trees' both Rajapaksa and Prasad conferred about possible Indian military assistance should any necessity arise. Plans had also been afoot to establish an 'Operations Room' at the Indian High Commission to monitor developments round the clock. However, on the morning of Friday (October 16), it turned out that there was no basis whatsoever to entertain suspicions of a coup of any sort.
There was not even an iota of evidence of attempts to either subvert the democratic system or disturb the life of the community. Thus, all plans to counter them were abandoned. Officials of the Ministry of Defence, those in the security establishment and even Colombo's intelligence community, who were naturally unaware of these developments, were relieved on learning later that matters had ended there.
Wake-up call
Two other developments in the domestic political firmament were noteworthy. Trade unions in the petroleum sector launched a four-day 'go slow', which was clearly a wake-up call to the Government. The move saw roads deserted and vehicles forming kilometre long queues outside fuel stations. Many outlets that ran dry put up shutters. Even if they did not succeed in winning their demands for a wage rise, the unions delivered a strong message - they were now in a mood to protest and bring fuel deliveries to a halt. With that taste of victory, those in the water and electricity sectors are veering towards joint action with those in the fuel sector. Another four-day 'go slow' is in the offing.
Within four days of 'go slow' in the fuel sector, the unions also caught the Government unawares; with no contingency plans in place should fuel distribution get paralysed and life come to a standstill. Troops and police deployed every 25 metres along highways only ensured some orderliness among vehicles that had queued for fuel.
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), whose trade unions were at the forefront of the action, also drew significantly large crowds for two protests in Colombo -- one to abolish the executive presidency and the other to win the demands of university students. When the latter marched from Lipton’s Circus to Kollupitiya, they expected to be stopped at the Dharmapala Mawatha (Pittala Handiya) junction.
That was by the Police, if not by peaceful means then by baton charging or exploding tear gas shells at them. Surprisingly, the procession was allowed to proceed past the Liberty Cinema roundabout to Galle Road, barely 100 metres from 'Temple Trees'.
The Police prevented any incidents by their careful handling. "In the past, they would have been very aggressive and stopped us from going that far," noted P. Jayasiri, one of the students. He said, "This time they were very cautious not to precipitate any incidents through an aggressive response." Quite clearly, the JVP has begun to flex its trade union muscle.
If that was of some concern for the UPFA, there was more when the main Opposition, after months of haggling, succeeded in forming a Common Alliance -- the United National Front (UNF). On Thursday, three of the key constituent partners - UNP leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe, SLFP (M) leader Mangala Samaraweera and National Democratic Front Leader Mano Ganesan placed their signatures vowing to implement a ten-point programme. Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) leader Rauff Hakeem is expected to sign at noon on Tuesday. In all, 15 registered political parties are to become signatories. A week-long programme to mark the formation of the Alliance will get under way on Tuesday.
For the UNP in particular, the days ahead of the formation of the UNF, produced a significant development. Dissident party members who were vociferously critical of their leader Wickremesinghe have mended fences and rallied round him. The ten-point policy or Dasaraaja Prathipaththiya has in its preamble the following commitment:
n Abolishing the Executive Presidency within 180 days of their coming to power. A new Constitution to be introduced to strengthen powers of Parliament and create an office of executive Prime Minister to be answerable to Parliament. Introduce provisions in the new Constitution to prevent the executive from dissolving Parliament and appointing Ministers at will. The number of Ministers will be defined in the Constitution. The total number of Ministers (Cabinet/Deputy Ministers/Ministers in charge of subjects) not to exceed one third of the number of members in Parliament. Through a motion of Parliament, extraordinary executive powers of the President to be abolished within 30 days.
- Ensure freedom of access to information, freedom of expression, political freedom in order to protect democratic rights.
- Ensure an administration that is transparent and ending bribery and corruption that is rampant in the country.
The objective of the ten-point programme is "creating an independent country where all communities which believe that Sri Lanka is their motherland could live proudly." One of the highlights is an assertion that the "government would introduce a reconciliation process for communities and groups which faced man-made disasters such as the war and those who have gone through natural disasters.
Those affected by the tsunami, by the war as well as war heroes killed, disabled will be of great importance. To ensure that the existing era of terror and suppression does not exist and to ensure political freedom and create a lawful society, there would be a reconciliation process."
International front
On the international front, the emergence of two reports, almost at the same time was to cause much concern to the Government. One is the report submitted last week by the US State Department to the Congress titled "Incidents during the recent conflict in Sri Lanka." The other is latest European Union report based on the findings of "the investigation with respect to the implementation of certain human rights conventions in Sri Lanka."
Both reports have come as further proof that the conduct of Sri Lanka's foreign policy is not only flawed but also now cost the Government dearly. In respect of the US report, even before it was made public, the Foreign Ministry ruled in a statement that the report "appears to be unsubstantiated and devoid of corroborative evidence." A statement said, "There is a track record of vested interests endeavouring to bring the Government of Sri Lanka into disrepute, through fabricated allegations and concocted stories…."
In making those statements on October 22, the Foreign Ministry in effect dismissed the US report. However, three days later, Mahinda Samarasinghe, Minister of Disaster Management and Human Rights, declared at a news conference (at the Presidential Secretariat) that President Mahinda Rajapaksa had decided to appoint an expert committee "to verify the facts behind the allegations against Sri Lanka in the US State Department report." Then Samarasinghe, a more suave diplomat who had played key roles at the UNHCR sessions in Geneva periodically, declared, "The Government stance on the report will be announced after a study is made by the Committee to be appointed by the President." This time, for him, it was mitigating a diplomatic disaster.
That clearly implies that the statement issued by Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama that the report "appears to be unsubstantiated and devoid of corroborative evidence," by "vested interests" is not the official view of President Rajapaksa or his Government. Very clearly, as Samarasinghe enunciated, the policy is to get a committee to study the US report first and then respond to the findings. Here is another clear instance, which illustrates that "press release diplomacy" is doing more harm than good.
Before leaving for Nepal, President Rajapaksa chaired a meeting of lawyers. They were asked to make a study of the US report and formulate guidelines for a committee to examine contents. Taking part in the meeting, among others, was Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.
The latest EU report is another example. The Government denied entry to the three-member panel of EU experts to visit Sri Lanka. Once the report was made public, the Government declared it would not respond to its contents. Yet, during a meeting in New York with EU President Jose Manuel Barroso, Foreign Minister Bogollagama said EU officials should visit Sri Lanka to see for themselves the ground realities. That assertion came in a press release he issued. Now, in marked contrast, the Government has decided that it would respond to the latest report in a last minute bid to plead with the EU to extend the GSP Plus preferential trade scheme - a move, which diplomatic sources say is unlikely.
Fonseka factor
Public attention also continued to remain focused on General Sarath Fonseka, Chief of Defence Staff, who is now on a visit to the United States. In these columns in the past two weeks, the Sunday Times has revealed facts relating to a dialogue he had initiated with the Opposition. Four days before his departure to Washington D.C. (on the night of Saturday, October 23) via Dubai, Gen. Fonseka was in a defiant mood when he chaired his weekly security meeting.
Armed Forces commanders and senior intelligence officials attended it. He had said he was happy to be a proud partner in defeating terrorism. However, he declared he would not want to be a party to any resurgence of terrorism in Sri Lanka. The remarks had come over what he perceives as a rapid re-location of IDPs (Internally Displaced People) from camps in Vavuniya this week.
Gen. Fonseka arrived in Washington last Sunday accompanied by his wife, Anoma, his Military Assistant Brigadier Athula Silva and two commando bodyguards. He checked into the 333-roomed five star Willard Intercontinental Hotel at Pennsylvania Avenue. The Sri Lanka Embassy had booked it. At the Ronald Reagan airport, Sri Lanka's Deputy Ambassador, Tissa Wijeratne and Defence Attaché (DA) Major General Samantha Sooriyabandara, who is at the end of his tenure, met him. A new DA has been picked though not publicly named yet. Ambassador Jaliya Wickremasuriya was then in Sri Lanka and has since returned to the United States.
Last Monday, Gen. Fonseka took part in religious ceremonies at the Washington Buddhist Viharaya to bless him and his wife. He won wide applause for a brief speech he made. Different versions of the speech appeared in websites and other media, most leaving out key elements. The videoed account of his full speech in Sinhala was posted on the widely accessed youtube website within hours after it was made. Here is an English translation:
"This is the first time I am making a speech in a temple. If there are mistakes, please pardon me. The Ven. Monk explained the country's situation, what happened and what has to be done. The last time I visited the temple, some of you were there. We promised to end the war in 2009. I am happy we were able to fulfil this promise. On May 18 we completed it. The promise that we gave was we would end the war so that our future generation will not face the problem of terrorism and could live without terrorism.
"We made lots of sacrifices. We put a lot of effort and dedication. It was not an easy victory. Some in Sri Lanka see that as an easy victory. Some are trying to gain credit for the victory and they are talking about it.
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Political battles
The people who really know about the victory in the war were the people involved in it. Particularly the Army played a major role. If I do not speak about, it would mean that I have not fulfilled my duty. In the Army 5,200 soldiers were killed and 28,000 were wounded to achieve this victory.
"I am indebted to the forces who were involved in the war as the officer who commanded them. If not for the sacrifices they made we would not have been able to achieve this victory. I pay tribute to them whenever I speak about the war. During that period, nearly 100,000 new recruits joined the Army. If they did not join us, we may still have been in Vavuniya. It was because of the assistance rendered to us by the public that so many joined us. About 80,000 of them are still with us. About 20,000 may have left. However good Army officers or however good politicians were there, we could have not won the war, if not for the support from the pubic and the soldiers who joined us.
"Even previously there were attempts to recruit soldiers, but not even 3,000 joined us. Nevertheless, this time about 40,000 joined the Army annually. That too is an achievement. Through this victory, we should not just be satisfied that Prabhakaran has been killed and only be happy about it. Some 30 years ago, there was no Prabhakaran, but a Prabhakaran was created. If the Sri Lankans forget the sacrifices made during these 30 years to achieve this victory, I am sure that even if this generation does not see a Prabhakaran, a future generation will see Prabhakarans. As the Venerable Chief Monk told us we should live unitedly. I too agree with that. If all live unitedly and work honestly look into the problems from all aspects, we could protect the country and continue.
"But, already some in Colombo have forgotten the importance of the Army. Some underestimate the military victory, like something we gained due to luck or like winning a sweep ticket. Those people too hold responsibilities in the country. If those people too think about the difficulty in achieving this victory, we would be able to enjoy the full benefits of these achievements.
"We will continue to do what has to be done. Generals will not remain in the Army with their uniforms. I have passed the retirement age and stayed on in the Army for four more years. I do not think everything has been fulfilled to the county. Just because Prabhakaran has been killed, the security in the country has not been ensured fully.
"There are displaced persons in the camps. They should be re-settled and Army should be deployed for security. Among them, there are terrorists. They should be identified and taken into custody. Only if security is fully established in those areas we could be satisfied that the war has ended and we can be happy about it. We should go for this objective.
"Some times I will have to give up this uniform in the future, particularly persons like me. We cannot go on with this uniform as long as we are alive. Yet I will not hesitate to take steps to maintain the security in the country. It is our duty to take any step to protect the country or for the progress of the country. It is no use of going on praising the war victory, but we have to be mindful of the future. As you were mindful during the war, you have to be mindful whether the country is on the correct path, whether the country should be put on the correct path, whether the required protection is provided."
Word of advice
Earlier, Ven.Maharagama Dhammasiri Nayaka Thera, the chief incumbent of the Washington Buddhist Viharaya, had a word of advice for Gen. Fonseka. He said: "Dont get caught in the political trap set by some national and anti-Sri lankan international forces to destroy the hard earned victory against terrorism. Look at the people who try to drag you in to politics. They are the people who said, "You are not good enough to lead even the Salvation Army".
"Thoppigala allanawa kiyala nikam kelayak Allala!" (Saying they were capturing Thoppigala, they had taken over a jungle), "Kilinochchiya kiyala Medawachchiyata gihilla" (saying they were going to Kilinochchi, they had gone to Medawachchiya) and so on. Our only wish at this critical time is only to see the three Heroes - H.E. The President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa and General Sarath Fonseka to stay together as they did in defeating terrorism in Sri Lanka."
Later last Monday, Gen. Fonseka was scheduled to have a meeting with Robert Blake, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia in the Department of State. However, it did not materialise reportedly over Blake not being well. The reason given was that Blake was down with the flu. A wag cracked that it must have been a diplomatic flu. Highly-placed Government sources in Colombo had claimed such a meeting will not materialise but declined to say why.
Ambassador Wickremasuriya entertained Gen. Fonseka and party to lunch at his official residence on the same day.
Despite Gen. Fonseka's theatrics in Colombo causing the Government some concerns, he was still not persona-non-grata with it. It seems the Government is using the 'carrot and stick' approach to either win him back or to pull in the reins. The Fonsekas were due to travel to Oklahoma where they have a residence to spend a few days. He is scheduled to return to Colombo on November 7.
Some aspects of his strained relations with the establishment in Colombo became public knowledge yesterday when Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa told the Island newspaper there was no attempt to sideline Gen. Fonseka. His remarks gained greater significance since Military and Police spokespersons have been warning against reportage over Gen. Fonseka. The Defence Secretary was quoted as saying that a change in the command of the Sri Lanka Navy before June 16 to accommodate then Rear Admiral Tisara Samarasinghe (as Commander) resulted in re-structuring of other commands. "Let me tell you that Gen. Fonseka was appointed as CDS with his consent. Although I haven't discussed this issue publicly before, I have no option but to reveal what really happened," Lt. Col. (retd.) Rajapaksa is quoted as saying.
In this regard, the Sunday Times learnt Gen. Fonseka was among those who strongly pushed for the appointment of then Rear Admiral Samarasinghe to the post of Commander of the Navy before June 16, when he was to reach the retirement age of 55 years. President Rajapaksa, upon the Defence Secretary's recommendation, had decided to appoint him. Thereafter, he had wanted to appoint then Commander of the Navy, Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda, who was senior most among the Commanders as CDS. However, Gen. Fonseka had threatened not to serve under him and offered to resign if such an appointment was made. Hence, Admiral Karannagoda was appointed as National Security Advisor.
Nevertheless, the Admiral's new appointment was not formally gazetted. Nor was he invited to meetings of the National Security Council. Later, he was appointed Secretary to Ministry of Highways and Gen. Fonseka was told to take the post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). As previously reported in these columns, the news to relinquish command of the Army within barely three days came as a shock to him. Sources close to Gen. Fonseka said yesterday that at the time he took office, he was not fully conversant with all the provisions and finer nuances of the new CDS Act that governs his appointment.
Even during his absence from Sri Lanka, Gen. Fonseka has been the subject of intense political speculation in the media. Some reports, perhaps wrongly, had spoken about his being a "common candidate" at a future Presidential election. As the Sunday Times revealed previously, besides an ongoing dialogue between Gen. Fonseka and the Opposition, no specific conclusions have yet been reached on any future political role for him.
Ranil responds
Moves by the Military Spokesman Udaya Nanayakkara to prohibit publication of "wrong facts" about military officers dabbling in politics co-inciding with Gen. Fonseka's continued controversial comments over the past several weeks drew a sharp response from UNP and Opposition leader, (also now leader of the UNF) Ranil Wickremesinghe, a lawyer himself. He told party trade unionists during a meeting on Tuesday:
"Presidential elections have to be held once in six years. However, after the fourth year in office, the President can declare one. Firstly, he has to decide he is willing to give up two years. In the absence of a proclamation of a Presidential Election, the UNP's stand has been that we have nothing to talk about it.
"But the Government Ministers have said that there will be Presidential Elections.
Then they have declared Sarath Silva (former Chief Justice) and Sarath Fonseka (Chief of Defence Staff) to be candidates and they are attacking both. The attack on Fonseka was after reports in the media about the possibility of the CDS contesting Presidential elections. The media can report it, whether it is right or wrong, false or not.
If Sarath Fonseka has done anything wrong, the Government can remove him from the post of Chief of Defence Staff. However, you cannot threaten the media. Military Spokesman Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara said that you are breaking the law and they are going to take action. I want to ask what law are you breaking?
"Then, DIG Nimal Mediwaka says they are going to investigate. What are they going to investigate if you have not broken the law? They are speaking through their hats - or caps - whatever it is. The Government made Sarath Fonseka into a candidate and have been attacking him daily. Now, if Officers coming into politics is wrong and illegal, then the first person to be prosecuted should be Gotabhaya Rajapaksa who said they are going to have military candidates in every district. If someone decides, "why should I come for the Parliamentary elections but I should have come for the Presidential elections," they have only themselves to blame - not anyone else. Certainly, you cannot suppress the media for that.
"What are the laws that they claim? They say they are applying the Army Act. The Army Act does not apply to the media. It is irrelevant. Secondly, the Emergency Regulations. The Constitution supersedes the Emergency Regulations. Article 4.1 (A) guarantees the freedom of expression and writing about elections cannot be prohibited by any Emergency Regulation that is contrary to the Constitution and contrary to the law.
"Thirdly, they talk of Section 120 of the Penal Code. Section 120 of the Penal Code deals with attempting to excite dissatisfaction against the people. How can you say that elections are creating disaffection among the people? The explanation to Section 120 says "to procure by lawful means……". To stand for elections and to get something changed is to procure by lawful means. Why are you threatening the media?
"You can't do that. There is no legal provision. Our Constitution is based on the sovereignty of the people and Article 3 says the sovereignty of the people is the franchise. You have the right to stand for elections and the right to vote. Therefore, if any Military or Police Officer makes a statement like what was made in the last few days, then they are violating their oath to uphold the Constitution, then you can take action against them. Not against the media.
"If you try to prosecute anyone under Section 120 for writing about elections, when anyone wants to stand for elections, then we will go for a fundamental rights case. Whether it is true or not, they can write. All you have done is aggravate the situation here because the ICCPR (International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights) guarantees to every citizen the right to vote and the right to stand for elections. Every Government must ensure this is upheld; this is in Article 25. Article 19 gives the right to free speech, freedom of media and the right for the people to receive different information through the media. So now, this statement violates Article 19 and Article 25 of the ICCPR.
"With regard to the issue of GSP Plus, the European Commission has taken the view that we are not upholding the ICCPR. By making this statement, you have aggravated the situation: instead of trying to save jobs, you are trying to destroy jobs. The country's economy is at stake. All they have achieved is add one more complaint against the Government of Sri Lanka for not upholding the ICCPR. If the Government is interested in saving the GSP Plus, it should take action against the officers who make this type of statements."
The announcement
As election fever begins to slowly grip the nation, the Government has cancelled the budget for 2010. A Vote on Account is due in Parliament this coming Tuesday. Then, President Rajapaksa will make an official announcement on November 15 at the Khettarama Stadium on the polls, whether it would be Presidential or Parliamentary. This is at the annual sessions of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).
Thus, for a Government that had defeated the scourge of Tiger guerrilla terrorism, no doubt, will face formidable challenges from invigorated Opposition parties. The democratic threats they pose in a fast changing political environment cannot be under estimated as they gang up against the Rajapaksa Presidency.
The President's visits to Lumbini, the birth place of Gautama the Buddha, and thereafter to Thirupathi this week maybe some indicator to political pundits as to which election would be announced on Nov. 15. Has he made up his mind whether he is going to sacrifice two years from his first term or is he confident that he could get that Supreme Court order that determined the issue of when a President's second term commences reversed. The Opposition wants him to make public his stand on the matter, while they themselves dither about whom to field at such an election.
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