That Sri Lanka created history by not having a Cabinet of Ministers for ten days so far was no comfort for President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
He had hoped he could swear in a Ministerial team days ahead of the Avurudu and then head for his ancestral home in Medamulana in the deep south. That was not to be. The supporters of one of his own party stalwarts and one time non-Cabinet Minister, Mahindananda Aluthgamage, had allegedly chased away agents from opposition parties in 34 polling stations.
Aluthgamage came to the President's adverse notice on the very day he launched the UPFA parliamentary polls campaign at Getambe in Kandy on March 19. When Rajapaksa referred in his speech to former Cabinet Minister Sarath Amunugama, a UPFA candidate in the district, a section of the crowd jeered and hooted. An angry President was to remark "Nawalapitiya gihilla hoo thiyagannawa" (go to Nawalapitiya and hoot). Nawalapitiya is the electorate of Aluthgamage.
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| Basil Rajapaksa |
Chamal Rajapaksa |
Last Tuesday, at a news conference Keheliya Rambukwella (also a former non-Cabinet Minister) was to take a few broadsides at Aluthgamage for the fiasco at Nawalapitiya. He said, "What happened in Nawalapitiya is unfortunate. It was a political mockery. The people have taken note of what happened and they will react accordingly. It is also unfortunate that our fight was within the party among our own candidates. Some people have taken the elections into their head and are overreacting. I have got the highest number of preferences in five electorates and reached the number one position. I came from another party."
That the official defence spokesperson made the asides raised eyebrows. Did it represent the official view? He was joining Amunugama, who was engaged in verbal duels prompting Aluthgamage to send him a letter of demand. He wants Rs. 500 million in damages. Even in the highly unlikely event of his receiving Rs. 500 million, that will not be enough to repair the damage caused to his own political career. The prospects of any portfolio being assigned to Aluthgamage this coming week seem remote. He may have to remain a backbencher, a non-Cabinet Minister at most.
The fact that President Rajapaksa is angry over these developments is clear. This is why the Ministry of Defence moved in to take tough action against the Police for not preventing the forced exodus of opposition agents from 34 polling stations in the Nawalapitiya electorate. The Nawalapitiya Police act as an appendage to Aluthgamage's political machinery. Some Police officers are on the mat. This week, Police not only gave security escorts to the candidates but also got tough with miscreants. The move even shook Aluthgamage. When it was reported that some opposing groups had attacked UNF candidate A.R.M. Abdul Cader's vehicle, Aluthgamage telephoned him to say, "Uncle, don't worry. I will get it repaired."
To ensure Tuesday's re-poll in Nawalapitiya (for the Kandy District) is trouble free, DIG Anura Senanayake has been appointed to oversee police arrangements. Roshan Fernando, Senior Superintendent of Police in charge of Gampola (which covers Nawalapitiya), has been transferred out. Replacing him temporarily is Ravindra Karavita, SSP Colombo South. Two Assistant Superintendents in the division and the Headquarters Inspectors of Gampola and Nawalapitiya Police stations have also been transferred.
In the Nawalapitiya electorate, the re-poll will involve 50,948 voters. There will also be a re-poll on Tuesday in one polling station at Kumburupiddy in the Trincomalee district. Polling in the latter will involve 977 voters. Thus, the Commissioner of Elections has not been able to officially announce the results of both Kandy and Trincomalee districts after the polls on April 8. On April 12 (last Monday) he published in a Gazette Extraordinary the list of persons elected as MPs for the electoral districts of Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Jaffna, Wanni, Batticaloa, Digamadulla, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura and Kegalle.
In the votes counted so far in the 12-member Kandy district, the UPFA has won seven seats and the United National Front five. The unofficial winners in the UPFA are Keheliya Rambukwella, Mahindananda Aluthgamage, Dilum Amunugama, Lohan Ratwatte, Eric Weerawardena, S.B. Dissanayake and Sarath Amunugama. Former Tourism Promotion Minister Faizer Mustapha is reported to have taken eighth place by a narrow margin of votes.
Those from the UNF are Rauff Hakeem, Lakshman Kiriella, A.R.M. Abdul Cader, M.H.A. Haleem and Mayantha Dissanayake. It has to be seen whether the re-poll in Nawalapitiya will substantially affect the present equation. UPFA leaders say the re-poll would help them win one more seat. In such an event, the UNP would have only four seats and Mayantha Dissanayake, son of the late Minister and Presidential candidate Gamini Dissanayake, would be left out. The UNF candidate, Mano Ganeshan, leader of Democratic People's Front (DPF) seems to have lost.
In the Trincomalee district, UPFA candidates Susantha Punchinilame and M.K.D.S. Gunawardena were the winners. The UNF had one winner (M.S. Thowfeek) whilst Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) leader Rajavarothayam Sampanthan won a seat. Since the re poll in this district revolves around 977 votes, it is not likely to change that balance or have much of an impact on preference votes.
A hypothesis based on the official results announced so far, and the projections in Kandy and Trincomalee districts present the following picture:
The UPFA - Officially, it has won 117 seats. If it wins eight seats in Kandy and two in Trincomalee, that would add up to 127 seats. In such an event, it would receive 17 seats from the National List bringing the total to 144 - just six seats short of a two-thirds majority. If it wins only seven seats in the Kandy district, as the count without Nawalapitiya electorate showed, it would only be one seat less.
The United National Front (UNF) - Officially, it has won 46 seats so far. If it wins five seats in the Kandy District and one in the Trincomalee district, the total number will be 51. In such an event, it will receive nine seats from the National List, making a total of 60. The number would go down by one if the party wins only four seats in the Kandy district.
The Democratic National Alliance - Officially, it has won five seats. Whilst it will receive one seat from the National List, some party members claim the DNA will get two.
The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) - Officially, it has won 12 seats. With its one seat in the Trincomalee district, it is expected to gain one on the National List. ITAK leaders say they would get one more. In such an event, the National List seats of the UPFA will be one less, bringing the total to 143.
The final party line up will be known on Tuesday night when the results of the Kandy and Trincomalee districts are officially announced. Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake is expected to publish them in a Gazette Extraordinary the same night. This is to facilitate the swearing in of a new Cabinet of Ministers on Wednesday.
Another similar notification from the President is due on Wednesday giving the names of Ministers and the subjects assigned to them.
Whatever the case be, it is clear that the UPFA is sitting pretty, only six or seven seats short of a two-thirds majority. Quite clearly, UPFA leaders did not appear keen, at least for the moment, to focus attention on canvassing for Opposition MPs to switch allegiance. Yet, more than six in the UNF were not averse to such a move and let their standpoints known to UPFA leaders informally. They include both former MPs now re-elected, and those newly elected.
The main reason for this apparent lack of interest is over the issue of constitutional changes. President Rajapaksa has been confronted with two schools of thought. One is to make a few immediately-needed constitutional amendments. The other is not to resort to such piecemeal changes but set up a Constituent Assembly with the objective of drafting an entirely new Constitution. In the light of this, the issue will remain in the backburner for a while. However, President Rajapaksa is to appoint the Constitutional Council which in turn will appoint the Police Commission in the coming weeks. He also wants to get tough with law enforcement to ensure the principles of Mathata Thitha (Stop to alcohol and drugs) in the Mahinda Chinthanaya (Thoughts of Mahinda) are strictly enforced.
Police Chief Mahinda Balasuriya has already been told to crack down on all forms of vice irrespective of under whose political patronage such activity is being carried out. Police Headquarters is busy formulating paid advertisements calling upon the public to provide information on drug cartels, illicit hooch dens, brothels and other illegal activity. A new scheme where Police will be more involved in traffic duties countrywide is also on the drawing boards. New members are to be appointed to the Commission to investigate allegations of bribery and corruption.
For leaders of political parties, the immediate issue is picking MPs from the National List. The task appeared relatively easy for President Rajapaksa. Besides accommodating nominees of constituent parties of the UPFA, he has to name a few from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). However, he is under pressure from all and sundry. One of those who made an attempt to get on the National List was former Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama, who lost at the April 8 polls. He perhaps wanted to continue in the same portfolio. In an unusual move, he pleaded this week with the venerable Mahanayakas of the Asgiriya and Malwatte Chapters to speak on his behalf to President Rajapaksa.
Shortly after the elections, UPFA's General Secretary, former Education Minister Susil Premajayantha, made President Rajapaksa's position unequivocally clear. He said no candidate who had lost would be appointed on the National List. That made clear that losers will not enter Parliament through the backdoor. Thus, Bogollagama has to settle for a less extravagant Government job sans some 40 vehicles and a large security contingent.
Then, in last Tuesday's (13th) issue of the State-run 'Daily News', the editorial under the heading 'For exit only' had a devastating attack on those who wanted to enter Parliament through the 'back door'. It said "The people have rejected several former MPs, including some powerful politicians that claimed to have won the whole world. They are said to be clamouring for entry into Parliament through the back door - the National List. What these gentlemen have forgotten is that the back door is for exit only.
Though they do not know it every fugitive knows it…….Perhaps they would have thought Parliament was akin to a passenger transport bus where the people use the back door for entry…..These gentlemen who used to enjoy princely benefits find it difficult to digest the lesson taught by the people. The best they could do is to eat the humble pie and start again from the grassroots or quit politics. The sooner the better".
There are no guesses as to whom the editorial was aimed at, nor as to who would have seen to such a message being given. As the semi-official organ of the Government, it should highlight Government thinking at the very top.
United National Front leader Ranil Wickremesinghe will decide today or tomorrow who will be on the UNF National List. "I will not appoint from the National List those who have not been elected. It has been our policy since the time of the late President Premadasa," he told the Sunday Times on Friday. However, these words don't seem to be written in stone. He also dismissed as "completely untrue" reports that he planned to replace the United National Party's General Secretary, Tissa Attanayake. Sections of the media had speculated that defeated Matara District candidate Sagala Ratnayake was to succeed him. Wickremesinghe said Attanayake would continue in his post.
It will be no easy task for Wickremesinghe. Sticking to the party's policy of not appointing defeated candidates would raise several issues. One would be an attempt by National Democratic Front (DNF) leader Mano Ganeshan who lost in the Kandy district. He is staking a claim. So is Daya Gamage, who lost in Digamadulla (Ampara) district. Gamage, who is an entrepreneur in the apparel industry, has been a big financier of the UNF campaign. In fact, his wife, Anoma Gamage, has been placed in the UNF National List fuelling reports that it was to make provision for Gamage if he lost, but it appears that the UNP violated its own internal rules and procedures by putting her name on the list as it is party policy not to have husband and wife on the same list.
Others staking claims are A.J.M. Muzammil and Mohamed Maharoof. They are bolstering their claims on the grounds that there were no UNF Muslim representatives in the Colombo district - a demand dismissed by other UNF stalwarts. "How can they seek representation now when their own voters have rejected them," asked one of them. A similar demand is being made from Eastern Batticaloa, where the UNP District Organiser Arsaratnam Sasitharan is asking for a slot on the National List arguing that there is no UNP representation in Parliament from the Eastern Province Tamils. He says the UNP pandered to the Muslims in the East through its partnership with the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) which cost them the Tamil vote in the East.
Wickremesinghe also has to heed the requests of the UNF constituent partners who have placed their own representatives on the National List. For example, SLFP (M) leader, Mangala Samaraweera, who came second in Matara district, wants Ruwan Ferdinands, a close ally of his. In 1989, the latter was in the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) National List.
The breakaway faction of the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) has claimed places for two of its own representatives - R. Yogarajan and M.S. Sellasamy. From the United National Party (UNP), the largest player in the UNF, it is likely that the National List MPs will include Tissa Attanayake, the General Secretary and the two former MPs, Rukman Senanayake (onetime Chairman of the party) and Joseph Michael Perera, (onetime Speaker and Chief Opposition Whip).
Though party officials say that no promises have been made to anyone, insiders say that Wickremesinghe has already promised banker Eran Wickramaratne and economist Harsha de Silva places. Their names caused a minor uproar among the party's National Lawyers Union for leaving out young lawyers from the list for the benefit of 'finance men' despite the contributions of the lawyers to the party cause over the years. Former Attorney General and Defence Minister Tilak Marapana however is a frontrunner to be appointed.
Wickremesinghe meanwhile has to contend with pressures from his party faithful who stood by him during the many attempts by a rebel faction to oust him from the leadership. High on this list is Vajira Abeywardene, one-time Public Administration Minister who lost from the Galle District. Abeywardene was a staunch ally of Wickremesinghe during the putsch by
Johnston Fernando and Indika Bandaranayake (both of whom later became Ministers in the Government and contested under the UPFA ticket).
So if Gamage (on the basis of financial support for the party), and Abeywardene (loyalty) are to find a place, there is going to be a tight squeeze for places from the UNP on the UNF National List.
In the meantime, several young entrants to Parliament from the UNP have ganged up and are scheduled to meet shortly ahead of a planned Working Committee meeting of the party. Dayasiri Jayasekera (Kurunegala) is one of the key organisers of this meeting. They call for party reforms that would give the youth a place in the sun and boot out the elders. The move has a slight taint of rebellion against the leadership under Wickremesinghe.
Suffering from one of the worst defeats the party has faced, with the total percentage dropping to the 20s, Wickremesinghe is under pressure to either quit the leadership or see that some real intra-party reforms and democracy take place.
The party appears to have lost the bulk of both the rural and urban Sinhala-Buddhist vote without which it will never be able to make a comeback to office. Recuperating from a sore-throat, cough and cold in a southern resort, Wickremesinghe was mapping out plans for what he called ‘a transition'. This was to give limited powers to the young MPs; those named being Sajith Premadasa, Dayasiri Jayasekera, Akila Kariyawasam, Thalatha Athukorale, Gayantha Karunatilleka as well as the new-comers, Ranjan Ramanayake, Buddhika Pathirana, Ruwan Wijewardene, Sujeewa Senasinghe, Harin Fernando, Ajith Perera and Manusha Nanayakkara, many of whom topped the list in their respective Districts. Whether this Youth Brigade will consider this a mere sop is yet to be seen; but their own thinking of asking for a 'collective leadership' with active youth participation seems a bit unrealistic however well intentioned the motives may be.
As far as the DNA is concerned, if it receives only one seat from the National List, it will go to its spokesperson Anura Kumara Dissanayake. A second seat will see the entry to Parliament of Tiran Alles, who became a millionaire businessman during the UNP administration selling mobile phones and connections in the one time Tiger guerrilla held North. Others were debarred by the then Government from engaging in this trade. Alles, who was an office bearer of the SLFP (M), became a staunch backer of retired General Sarath Fonseka and his family. He has made available his vehicles for use by Anoma Fonseka after the Army vehicles were withdrawn. The ITAK, which will have two National List seats, is to include a Colombo based Tamil lawyer - a lay Christian preacher.
For the DNA leadership, a new issue is whether retired General Sarath Fonseka, now an MP from the Colombo district, will be allowed to take his oaths on Thursday when the newly-elected MPs assemble. JVP spokesman Anura Kumara Dissanayake has accused the Government of making plans to prevent General Fonseka from being sworn in. He told a news conference from the DNA office at Rajakeeya Mawatha on Friday that the JVP was aware of these plans. He said it had sent letters in this regard to Army Commander Jagath Jayasuriya and Parliament Secretary General Dhammika Kitulgoda. He has requested both to ensure retired General Fonseka is allowed to take his oaths.
Dissanayake's remarks appear to be a pre-emptive strike. His claim that the General Court Martial, which sits tomorrow would convict retired General Fonseka, is not a possibility. Firstly, the GCM is still hearing evidence. Secondly, for purposes of argument, if it does convict him, its recommendation would have to go to the President, who is Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. He has to initiate action based on the GCM recommendations, a time consuming process.
However, last week, spokesperson Susil Premajayantha, told a news conference there was no barrier to Gen. (retd.) Fonseka attending Parliament. Yet, UPFA leaders are worried. Even if the Speaker of Parliament had the power to expunge any 'offensive' or 'sensitive' speeches, one of them told the Sunday Times, they would be helpless if he were to address a news conference with other DNA leaders. "There is no way we can prevent this," one of them said.
An even more difficult task for President Rajapaksa is the formaton of the Cabinet of Ministers who will take their oaths on Wednesday. The Sunday Times learns that there will be 35 or at the most 37 Ministers in the Cabinet, down from the 51 in the last Parliament. At least twenty Ministers who served in the former Cabinet will not be re-appointed. This will naturally include Rohitha Bogollagama, Ferial Ashraff, Milinda Moragoda, Dharmadasa Banda and others who lost. Most of those who will not be re appointed are from the Colombo district. The certainties for portfolios are UPFA constituent leaders including Champika Ranawaka (JHU), Wimal Weerawansa (NFF), Douglas Devananda (EPDP), Dinesh Gunawardena (MEP), Arumugam Thondaman (CWC) and UPFA General Secretary Susil Premajayantha, who scraped through in Colombo after a re-count of the preferential votes.
Meanwhile, Basil Rajapaksa this week emerged as a strong contender for the post of Prime Minister. Besides party leaders of the UPFA, others backing him are a large group of MPs. During the previous Parliament, both as Presidential Advisor and MP, he has acted as the conduit between the President and Parliament. The possibility of his receiving an additional portfolio that would cover investment, tourism, agriculture and allied sectors is not ruled out. The three other contenders for premiership are former Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickremanayake, SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena and former Kandy district MP D.M. Jayaratne, who counts over 50 years in the SLFP.
Important enough, security factors appear to be another key issue in the move to appoint Basil Rajapaksa. With this, UPFA leaders also aspire for a Speaker of Parliament who will not only form a strong bond but also cushion any threats against the President. Prompting this line of thinking are events that came about when the late President Ranasinghe Premadasa was to be impeached in 1991.
UPFA leaders say any possible repetition of such moves will have to be avoided. They say all possible scenarios were being visualised before firm decisions are made with the President's elder brother Chamal talked of for the post of Speaker, a post the elder Rajapaksa prefers not to hold. He has made it public that he wants the Ports Ministry again so that he could see to the completion of the new harbour at Hambantota.
In the line of succession, after the President comes the Prime Minister and thereafter the Speaker of Parliament. The move to appoint Basil Rajapaksa as Prime Minister is not without precedent. When President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga was in office during her first term as President in 1994, her mother Sirimavo Bandaranaike was the Prime Minister. Hence, a previous SLFP-dominated Government has had a mother-daughter partnership. Thus, an elder brother younger brother arrangement, some UPFA leaders say, is not new or untenable though critics may fault such a move as family bandyism.
The other top portfolio that is the cynosure of all eyes is the Minister of Foreign Affairs. The front-runner is Mahinda Samarasinghe, (Kalutara district) who has in reality played de facto Foreign Minister on many occasions. He has been interacting with the United Nations and several Governments on crucial issues. Together with Attorney General Mohan Peiris he was credited with averting a resolution last year at the UN Commission on Human Rights to make strictures against Sri Lanka.
Samarasinghe has maintained a close rapport with the Colombo-based diplomatic community but his dialogue with some has been misunderstood as unfavourable to the Government. He has insisted that his philosophy was to engage with all concerned without isolating Governments or international organisations.
Another contender is Dr. G.L. Peiris who has been ambitious to become Foreign Minister for many years, particularly since the portfolio was held by the late Lakshman Kadirgamar. He did play some role interacting with the international community during the crisis over whether or not the GSP plus trade concessions should be extended to Sri Lanka. His diplomacy, which was at a junior level with officials and deputy foreign Ministers, failed.
Despite his public assurances, he could not succeed in having the European Union restore this facility to Sri Lanka. Later, Dr. Peiris was to publicly declare that the European Union should be taken to Courts for failing to extend the GSP facility to Sri Lanka.
The remarks prompted the Government to distance itself and say the views did not represent the official position. The other contender, Nimal Siripala de Silva, is a new comer and has not been tested in the new role he is tipped to take on, his claim to fame in the international arena being his Chairmanship of the World Health Organisation (WHO) which he obtained by virtue of geographical rotation of the post.
Last May, the Rajapaksa administration ended what was repeatedly said as the biggest obstacle to development - the separatist military campaign by Tiger guerrillas. Last week, it cleared what was perceived as another impediment -- the opposition -- by winning a comfortable majority at the parliamentary elections.
A new era in Sri Lanka's political firmament dawns on Thursday. With no formidable obstacles in its way, the UPFA Government finds itself free to serve its people. A nation awaits to see how it fares as a beaten opposition, still in tatters and disarray continues to lick its wounds.
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