Germany's oracle octopus, Paul, has become a worldwide celebrity for his apparent ability to accurately predict the outcome of football matches.
Paul has correctly forecasted the result of six of Germany's World Cup games, and has now plumped for Spain to take the title.
So just how extraordinary is this cephalopod?
Paul is a common octopus, which is considered the most intelligent of all invertebrates.
In experiments it has seemingly distinguished the brightness, size and shape of different objects.
But mathematicians point out that his run of predictions is not that extraordinary.
As Paul was predicting two possible outcomes (win or lose, and not a draw), he had a 1/64 chance of predicting six correct outcomes - a 1/2 chance of predicting the first game correctly, then a 1/4 chance of predicting the first two games, a 1/8 chance of predicting all the first three games, and so on.
The chances of him correctly predicting seven games, up to the final, is 1/128.
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| Paul the “octopus oracle” choosing a mussel, from the Spanish box Reuters |
'Spooky'
Chris Budd, professor of applied mathematics at the University of Bath, says that even highly experienced people find it difficult to predict the outcome of a football game, and compares Paul's feat of "prophesy" to the tossing of a coin.
"If you toss a coin and it comes down heads six times, that is unlikely," he says. "However it is not as unlikely as predicting which numbers will win the lottery, which is 1/14 million."
"Mathematics can be spooky in the way it can appear to predict things," he says.
"You can use mathematics to predict things in the future. When I get on an aeroplane, for example, I know I am not going to fall out of the sky because mathematics has predicted the plane will not do that. But that doesn't mean I'm psychic."
David Spiegelharter, the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University is not convinced either that Paul's predictions are that remarkable.
The octopus's run of correct predictions is all down to luck, he says.
Using the coin analogy, he that says if someone flips a coin and gets the same result nine or 10 times, it is not remarkable in itself, but it will seem remarkable to the person flipping the coin.
Hole-in-one
It is all down to our skewed perception of chance. "Our perception about how chance happens is not very good, it is not part of our human characteristics," Prof Spiegelharter says.
"The mathematics of chance have only really developed in the past 100 years or so," he points out.
File photograph of Paul the psychic octopus Will gamblers take their cue from Paul's prophesies?
He says it is important to think about all the other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches. "It's like seeing footage of a golfer getting a hole-in-one," he says. "We're not seeing the millions of times the golfer made the shot and it didn't go in."
"What would be difference would be if the golfer said it would happen in advance."
So the publicity surrounding Paul's latest prediction is an opportunity for greater scrutiny of his powers.
Nick Weinberg, a spokesman for Ladbrokes in the UK, said that there was evidence of people betting small sums based on the octopus's predictions. "People are coming in and saying they are waiting for his predictions, and betting £5 or £10 ($7-$15)," he says.
However, it remains to be seen whether Paul's selection will influence the odds on who will ultimately take home the World Cup.
As the world digested Paul's prediction Spain were indeed the bookmakers' favourites - exactly as they have been throughout the tournament.
Courtesy BBC News
Netherlands will beat Spain, says Dutch octopus
THE HAGUE, July 9, 2010 (AFP) - Pauline, a female octopus in Dutch captivity, has predicted victory for the Netherlands in Sunday's World Cup final against Spain, contradicting Paul the “psychic” German octopus after whom she was named, her aquarium said Friday.
“She chose the Netherlands,” Maaike Schroeder, spokeswoman for the Sea Life aquarium in Scheveningen in The Hague told AFP.
This was a first attempt at divination for four-year-old Pauline, added Schroeder.
3rd place for Germany
BERLIN (AFP) - Ahead of yesterday’s thrid-place play-off the Paul the Octopus said Germany would beat Uruguay.
'Psychic' parakeet picks Netherlands
SINGAPORE (AFP) - Paul the "psychic" octopus has a rival: a Singapore parakeet which correctly predicted all four winners in the World Cup quarter-finals has picked the Netherlands to trump Spain for the championship, local media said Friday.
The bird, named Mani, has rapidly gained cult status among gambling-mad soccer fans who have been flocking to its owner's shop in Singapore's Little India district in the hope of winning big.
"With the World Cup in its final stage, Mani is now literally the talk of the town -- and many are going with its prediction of the Dutch team winning its first-ever World Cup title," Channel NewsAsia said on its website. |
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