A landslide win has ensured that AIADMK chief J. Jayalalitha will come back as chief minister for the third time in Tamil Nadu. The people have voted out the DMK emphatically, and voted in the AIADMK overwhelmingly in a wave that most pollsters missed.
Although they did give Jayalalitha (or Amma, as her followers call her) the edge, what they predicted was a close contest, with the possibility that the DMK might just make it. But Jayalalitha had all along been confident of getting 200-plus seats. It was M.K. Stalin, former deputy chief minister and Karunanidhi's son, whose calculation has proved completely wrong: against the 220 seats he said the DMK-Congress combine would win, his party ended up winning not even 30 of the 119 seats it contested.
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| J. Jayalalithaa, leader of Anna Dravida Munetra Khazhgam (AIADMK), takes an oath as chief minister of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu during a swearing-in ceremony at Madras University Centenary Auditorium in Chennai May 16, 2011. Reuters |
Jayalalitha's first reaction after she came out on her balcony to flash her party's two-leaves symbol to the milling crowds outside her Poes Garden residence was: "Karunanidhi should have listened to the people."
An ironic sidelight to the results is that a superstitious Jayalalitha came out victorious on what is considered a day of bad luck by some, Friday the 13th, while a rationalist like Karunanidhi was staring a debacle in the face in what will possibly be his last election.
M.G. Devasahayam, a former IAS officer who toured the state in his capacity as convenor of the Forum for Electoral Integrity, an NGO, says, "Tamils have redeemed their honour and contradicted the feeling that they were a purchasable commodity who could be bought with a few hundred rupees and a bottle of liquor."
This is a thought shared by many. Cho Ramaswamy, editor of Thuglaq, says, "The people of Tamil Nadu were waiting to show the DMK the door, and they have done so emphatically."
DMK’s worst defeat
For the DMK, it is the worst defeat it has faced since 1991, when it won just two seats. The AIADMK sweep then -- in alliance with the Congress -- was the result of a sympathy wave following the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in Sriperumbudur. This time, the DMK's humiliation seems entirely self-inflicted, thanks to the anti-incumbency feeling brought on by the 2G scam, rampant corruption, family rule, the price hike and the power crisis.
The DMK's self-delusion was evident in how many leaders said during the election campaign that corruption was a non-issue and that concerns about the 2G scam were an urban phenomenon. Rural voters, they said, didn't understand such complex, multilayered scams. But the size of the scam the Karunanidhi family was involved in -- Rs 1.72 lakh crore, by the cag's estimate -- did bother voters. It completely shook their faith in the first family of the DMK. And as the campaign heated up, there were clear indications that voters wanted a change. Signals the DMK evidently did not read.
On the other hand, one of Jayalalitha's mood assessments seems to have hit the mark. In the run-up to the elections, she had said the people of Tamil Nadu would never want a coalition government, and the comment had hung like a question mark over her equation with Vijayakanth, chief of the Desiya Murpoku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK).
An AIADMK source had told Outlook, "If they are compelled to form a government together, I give it three to six months only." But with her party sailing far across the magic half-way mark of 117 seats, there's no danger of her having to team up with any of her allies -- the DMDK, the CPI(M) or the CPI -- to form a government. With the numbers in her favour, she has administered a characteristic snub to Karunanidhi, saying her government would function from Fort St George and not the new Assembly Complex that Karunanidhi showpieced as one of the achievements of his 2006-2011 tenure as chief minister.
Karthi Chidambaram of the Congress, an AICC member and son of Union home minister P. Chidambaram, says it was the DMDK and the Left parties that helped Jayalalitha get the numbers. But it doesn't entirely appear to be the case. The DMDK got a little more than half the 41 seats it contested, and it looks like Vijayakanth has done his party a favour by tying up with the AIADMK and not the other way around.
Karunanidhi, who is credited with political sagacity, appears not to have seen the straws in the wind. Instead, he bombarded people with freebie after freebie, letting his family -- and also non-family loyals like transport minister K.N. Nehru -- run riot.
But perhaps he did sense the wind direction. On his last day of campaigning, he said, "The DMK alliance is a winning alliance. We have done a lot for the people. I hope they will support us." The "I hope" was a dead giveaway. And earlier, he had conceded to the Congress demand for 63 seats, betraying a lack of confidence, or a touch of helplessness, perhaps, given A. Raja's and daughter Kanimozhi's entanglement in the 2G investigations.
He also kept sniping at the Election Commission, whose security officers had unearthed crores being transported during election time. Says an analyst, "Karunanidhi allowed the replication of the Thirumangalam by-election formula -- in which cash was distributed for votes -- in every by-election. This despite the fact that his party would have won anyway, as it was in power in the state. He should have seen that people were getting disgusted."
Karunanidhi’s image
If Karunanidhi had to capitulate to the Congress during seat-sharing talks owing to the shadow of the 2G scam, what will happen now that his alliance has lost Tamil Nadu? Most analysts think he will be reduced to a supplicant, given the fact that Kanimozhi, the articulate daughter he sent to Delhi, has been named as an accused in the CBI's second chargesheet before the Supreme Court. The hope that victory would give him some leverage to rescue her has evaporated.
What's worse, his image as a protector of the party and its loyals has taken a beating. "He has given up Raja -- this sends the signal to his cadres that family is more important to him," says Prof. C. Lakshmanan of the Madras Institute of Development Studies.
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| Jayalalithaa greeting her supporters at her Pose Garden residence |
As for the Congress, it was widely expected that it would not reach the double-digit figure and that has come almost true. The party's prospects were hit by infighting, a lacklustre campaign, and most of all, disastrous management of the distribution of seats at the eleventh hour.
This had led to TNCC president K.V. Thankabalu creating bad blood within the cadres. In fact, if anything blunted the Congress campaign, it was the unseemly scramble for tickets.
Many believe that, despite her position of strength, Jayalalitha must not go overboard, as she is prone to, and instead concentrate on governance through consensus. "Jayalalitha must not let this victory go to her head," says Devasahayam. "She must understand the mandate of the people and choose to be participatory and consultative."
The AIADMK chief, who conducts herself like a diva, never lets people know her course of action. In fact, DMK spokesman T.K.S. Elangovan says she has "no policies, no programme, just talks nonsense and goes". So she has to make good her manifesto promises of several freebies, which she said would be underwritten by growth in the industrial and agriculture sectors.
Vendetta
The other dangerous and counterproductive route she has often taken is that of vendetta: the midnight arrest of Karunanidhi in 2001 had cost her the 2006 elections. During the campaign, she had said, "Corruption, no doubt, is everywhere. But on this scale -- it's something new. People feel action should be taken and the entire system should be cleaned up."
She also called M.K. Azhagiri -- Karunanidhi's son and Madurai strongman, who bears the moniker 'anjanenjar' (braveheart) -- a coward and has threatened to rid Madurai of his influence. If these are signs that she might go after the Karunanidhi family, she should expect her actions to boomerang on her. Far better for her to go in the spirit of what she said on returning to Chennai after the campaign: "The response from the public has been overwhelming and the culmination has filled everyone with hope that Tamil Nadu is on the threshold of a new beginning, a new dawn." Her prophesy has come true. It's an opportunity she should not fritter away in meaningless witch-hunts.
Courtesy Outlook, India |
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