Some presidents in Sri Lanka have had a tendency for vainglory. On his birthday, President J.R. Jayewardene insisted on a national tree planting campaign. President Ranasinghe Premadasa held the Gam Udawa celebrations on his birthday.
President Chandrika Kumaratunga, bless her, did nothing of the sort but that had more to do with doing nothing at all on other days as well, being arguably the least efficient of our Presidents. As for President Dingiri Banda Wijetunga, we hardly knew when his birthday was.
Forever the lucky one, Percy Mahinda Rajapaksa was blessed with good fortune: his birthday, eighteenth November, was just a day before the anniversary of his assumption of office in 2005. As the two events fortuitously coincided celebrations were always held on his birthday.
This year though, it was different. The opening of the Southern Expressway, previously scheduled for the same day, was postponed until later in the month. Moreover, the verdict on the infamous 'white flag' case, involving former Army commander Sarath Fonseka was being coincidentally delivered on the same day.
Rajapaksa would have sensed that celebrating on a grand scale on that day would be incongruous. Thursday therefore was spent on religious observances in Kelaniya, Minister Mervyn Silva's electorate. Again, the President had demonstrated that he was an astute reader of the peoples' mood. On his birthday proper he marked it with a 'pirith' ceremony at President's House and yesterday, he went to Nuwara Eliya.
It is a trait that has stood Rajapaksa in good stead. In 2005, when Chandrika Kumaratunga's popularity as president was waning and presidential elections would not have been ordinarily due until 2006, Rajapaksa engineered action in the Supreme Court to have the elections held earlier. The Supreme Court, then headed by his erstwhile friend Sarath Nanda Silva ruled that elections were indeed due in 2005. Had the polls been held a year later, the ruling party's stock could have plummeted further, the war in the North and East would have escalated and Rajapaksa may not have won.
Similarly soon after giving political leadership to the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in May 2009, Rajapaksa cashed in again calling for elections in January 2010. He won handsomely, despite his rival being the Army Commander of the same campaign.
The President, 66 on Friday completed the first year of his second term of office and has five more years to this term of his. Crafty politician that he is, he has now removed the constitutional hurdle that prevented him from running for a third term, so this time frame may in fact be irrelevant.
So, can we Sri Lankans expect to live happily ever after now that President Rajapaksa has ended the war and ushered in peace? Can the average Sri Lankan expect to live in a nation which is at least considered a 'newly industrialised country' when he eventually leaves office?
It would be premature as yet to hazard an answer to that question. Certainly, peace and political stability have contributed to kick starting the economy, although its dividends are yet to trickle down to the masses.
The annihilation of the LTTE is Rajapaksa's greatest achievement still, so far, and will probably always be so, no matter what he achieves in terms of economic advancement or national reconciliation. Sri Lankans will always be grateful to him for that because they now live, travel and work, secure in the knowledge that they are free from terror. But again, will Sri Lankans be always grateful to him for that alone?
That he did defeat the LTTE in the face of thickly veiled threats from an array of international forces ranging from the United States to the United Nations and the fact that he did not blink in those days of intense pressure only enhanced his stature in the eyes of the Sri Lankan public. That he had in his brother Gotabaya, a resolute and determined Defence Secretary to coordinate the effort was a stroke of good fortune.
Paradoxically enough, the continued saber-rattling in the international community about alleged war crimes towards the end of the Eelam war has also helped Rajapaksa. The Tamil Diaspora may want him prosecuted but with each protest they launch, the 'maha kalu sinhalaya' image is enhanced. Recently he was to lament to a visiting Buddhist monk from Britain, "see, I united this country; people from the North come to the South, and vice-versa. People travel freely within this country as I have liberated it from the clutches of the terrorists who divided the country; but I can't travel to the UK or Australia or America without being hassled".
So, Rajapaksa is still reaping the rewards for his bravado domestically, though not internationally. Recent local government elections where his ruling United Peoples' Freedom Alliance (UPFA) recorded resounding victories were more an endorsement of Rajapaksa rather than that of his ministerial and parliamentary colleagues, but abroad he is seen as someone who was a 'war monger'.
His domestic popularity -- and that of his government's -- has been bolstered by another factor: the hopelessly fractionalised opposition where the two major opposition parties, the United National Party (UNP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) seem to be hell bent on self-destruction.
While the JVP appears to be imploding of its own volition, not so the UNP. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to deduce that the current divisions in the UNP have been brought about partly by the defections so cleverly manoeuvred by Rajapaksa, the most famous of them being Karu Jayasuriya's. When he says that "the doors are open in his party for people to come, and to leave", and then says "I have people lining up from the opposition to join us but I won't take them in now" he is only tantalising those in the opposition to come in the belief that the opposition chances of coming into power and place are as good as a snow ball's chances in hell.
But that is so typical of Rajapaksa the political animal. If he sees a loophole to exploit for political gain, he will do so. That is what has got him so far in the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), where he had to struggle at every turn to break the Bandaranaike stranglehold -- and he will not change track now.
All this suggests that Rajapaksa's place in history is assured. That happened when he crushed the LTTE. But with years to go, how will history record his achievements finally will be the question. The lofty pedestal he is in is often a dangerous place to be in. You can't go higher. You can only remain there, or fall down. Just as much as he will be remembered for defeating the LTTE, he could well be remembered for squandering an opportunity for lasting peace among our different ethnic groups, and developing the nation.
Rajapaksa comes from the deep South, but is equally comfortable in slacks or national dress. Having won the war he carries with him the imprimatur of the Sinhala nationalist. It is a title he likes, and he knows that his support base is the majority Sinhalese. It is true that the western bloc and the international community would dearly like to have a 'solution' designed by them imposed on Sri Lanka but that is not a reason for Rajapaksa to perceive his own solution as being a sign of caving into pressure. We know he doesn't, as he showed us in 2009.
Another danger lurking innocuously is the nebulous opposition he faces both in Parliament and outside it. Many may see this as a blessing but it is not. Weak oppositions drive stable governments into over-stepping the realms of decency, which they wouldn't have otherwise attempted.
If one were to delve into recent history, some of President J.R. Jayewardene's actions would certainly qualify: stripping Sirima Bandaranaike of her civic rights, holding a referendum instead of a general election in 1982 and attempting to have two sitting MPs for Kalawana spring readily to mind.
Jayewardene, had he been around today, would chuckle and put forward a convincing argument that each of these acts was legal and was done in the 'proper' way. And indeed they were. But there was also no doubt about the underlying ulterior political motives.
Already some will question whether some of President Rajapaksa's boldest decisions too fall into this category. The eighteenth amendment to the constitution which removed the bar to the number of terms of office of a president is a case in point. So too is the total dismantling of the 17th amendment which was painfully introduced back in 1999 and thereby re-politicising three pillars of government, the police, the public service and the judiciary.
The recent 'nationalization' laws and the Sarath Fonseka saga would stand on the debit side of the President. Although Fonseka has now been found guilty by a civilian court, there would be little doubt in the minds of most people that none of this would have transpired, had Fonseka opted for a quiet retirement instead of taking on President Rajapaksa.
As it has now turned out, Fonseka faces trial after trial, conviction after conviction and an indeterminate future in Welikada instead of being our envoy in Warsaw or Washington. And with each episode, the President's magnanimity is being questioned and Fonseka is made to look the martyr.
While these are all issues that could hurt Rajapaksa's popularity, eventually, they are not potential threats to his authority as of now. Lately though, there has been some dissent from the SLFP itself following the murder of Bharatha Lakshman Premachandra. Dyed-in-the wool party supporters saw this as a clash between a loyal party man and a new kid in the block, and the president taking the latter's side. They did not like it. It is a symptom Rajapaksa should seriously worry about because probably for the first time, dissension was visibly seen within his ranks even among senior but marginalized and long suffering Ministers. What followed soon after was another factor that cannot be easily ignored. No one, other than brother Basil and an MP from Moneragala who seemed to have a vested interest, spoke for his government on the take over of underperforming enterprises law, otherwise known as the 'nationalization' law. Is this just a 'storm in a tea cup', or is there more to it?
That should not be something new to the SLFP: For five decades, any progress through the ranks of the party depended on servility towards the Bandaranaikes. Nevertheless, the resentment is palpable now and there is a feeling that the Bandaranaike family tree will be replaced by the Rajapaksa forest.
Indeed the allegation of nepotism is being thrown at the Rajapaksas with increasing frequency. While no one would contest that brothers Chamal and Basil have earned their right to be in Parliament and that Gotabaya has done a splendid job as defence secretary, other relatives are being frowned upon.
The President would do well to look at the history of the Bandaranaikes. In their heyday in the seventies the Bandaranaike family tree held sway in the country but the knives were always out and eventually it led to a battle of the siblings, Anura and Chandrika, for succession.
The other accusation frequently laid at Rajapaksa's door is of rampant wastage and corruption. Capitalism always allows for this but the accusation is that of crony capitalism. Again, the President seems thoroughly unconcerned about these accusations and his name being sullied.
It is fact that dozens upon dozens of state enterprises led by Mihin Air, SriLankan Airlines and the Ceylon Electricity Board are running at massive losses. For all the purported financial wizardry in the government, these institutions are still in the red, now so much so that they are starting to hurt the economy, badly. Ultimately, the problem will be dumped on the heads of the citizen to carry the burden and that's when the Rajapaksa magic is going to wane.
Sri Lankans, caught up in the euphoria of war victory, haven't begun voting with their stomachs yet but then, there is no election in the near future. By 2016, if the cost of living really hurts the average citizen, the President will be hard pressed for answers, but he probably sees that as light years away. And why worry, when the opposition is in shambles anyway.
In many ways then, President Rajapaksa is at crossroads. He has delivered on his promises on the war and rejuvenating a development drive. But questions are being asked now about his commitment to a solution to the ethnic issue, democracy, law and order and good governance.
These are tough questions. Governments and their leaders invariably face them and after a period in office the answers are harder to come by. There is a temptation to cut loose, emasculate the opposition and claim everything before them. Such plans, though feasible at first glance, seldom succeed. Some early warning signs are blinking and the President would do himself a service by restraining some of those around him with a tight leash because at the end, the buck stops with him.
At this point of time and six years into office, if one were to draw a comparison with previous presidencies, President Rajapaksa appears to combine many aspects of both the presidencies of J.R. Jayewardene and Ranasinghe Premadasa.
Like Jayewardene, he now enjoys near absolute power and could probably even turn a man into a woman, if he so wishes. Like the 'Old Fox' he has outmanoeuvred the opposition into a position of hopelessness through a series of deft political moves.
Like Premadasa, Rajapaksa remains very much a 'peoples' president' hobnobbing with the hoi-polloi, at ease with them be it attending a funeral or sharing a meal. That is a significant aspect of his success so far -- and if anything, he has got better at it.
Ideally, these two traits together in one leader should make for the perfect President. But then, Rajapaksa must reflect on how the Jayewardene and Premadasa presidencies are remembered in retrospect now.
We know that President Percy Mahinda Rajapaksa does not wish to be remembered in that manner. As we wish him well for the second year of his second term of office, we hope that the President has the courage to change direction, where necessary, to ensure that his legacy will be a worthwhile one. |
E-mail
