The unexpected ouster of Mohamed Nasheed from the presidency of the Maldives last week seems to have stirred the collective conscience of people in the region and beyond. There has been a spontaneous outpouring of sympathy and expression of concern from many quarters, with representatives of governments appealing to the new Maldivian president Mohamed Waheed to ensure his safety. Among them was Sri Lanka's President Mahinda Rajapaksa who, we are told, personally called Waheed to obtain assurances regarding Nasheed's safety. Reports say a warrant has been issued for his arrest, though there is no sign of it being carried out at this point.

Former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed is carried by his supporters during the Maldivian Democratic Party's meeting in Male on Wednesday. AFP

It is an indication of the degree of mutual trust and friendship that exists between Nasheed and the Sri Lankan president that the former Maldivian leader's wife and daughter fled to Sri Lanka after violence broke out in Male on Wednesday. Nasheed's Maldivian Democratic Party members and Nasheed himself were reportedly beaten by police during protests that that day. The Sri Lankan police chief has been directed to provide security to Nasheed's family members who arrived in Colombo.

While the events leading to the sudden deposition of the democratically elected Maldivian leader are being pieced together from a variety of media reports, a clear picture is yet to emerge as to the exact circumstances in which this drama unfolded.

The Indian ocean archipelago has been better known as a luxurious holiday destination beckoning from the pages of travel brochures, than the scene of nasty power politics. Although initial reports suggested a voluntary resignation by Nasheed following weeks of opposition protests, Nasheed on Wednesday said he was forced to resign at gunpoint. This opens up possible new interpretations as to what happened.

The continuing unrest in Male and Addu, despite police crackdowns, would seem to indicate that Nasheed has more popular support than his opponents bargained for. On Friday the Maldivian community in Colombo came out on the streets to demonstrate in support of their ousted leader.

President Waheed, who was Nasheed's former deputy, has called for the formation of a unity government until the elections due next year. But according to CNN a spokesperson for the MDP has rejected the idea, asserting that they "will not negotiate with an unconstitutional government."

Nasheed's account of events was carried in an Op Ed piece of the New York Times on Wednesday. He said that the nation struggling to establish democracy still had to deal with the 'remnants of dictatorship' inherited from its previous leader Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. He wrote:

"My country, the Maldives, voted out President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, its iron-fisted ruler, back in 2008, in historic elections that swept away three decades of his authoritarian rule. And yet the dictatorship bequeathed to the infant democracy a looted treasury, a ballooning budget deficit and a rotten judiciary."
After he was elected that year, Nasheed says, the Maldives for the first time had a democratically elected president, parliament and local councils. But he adds, it also had a judiciary handpicked by the former president.

"These powerful judges provided protection for the former president, his family members and political allies, many of whom are accused of corruption, embezzlement and human rights crimes."
It appears that the arrest ordered by Nasheed of one of these judges, Abdulla Mohamed, sparked off the crisis. Nasheed maintains that this chief judge of the criminal court was protecting members of Gayoom's government against whom there were corruption charges. The opposition has been critical of the manner in which the arrest was made.

Nasheed's term in office was not entirely smooth. Tensions became visible to the outside world in 2010 when his entire 13-member cabinet resigned over conflicts with the opposition-dominated Majlis (parliament). It was President Mahinda Rajapaksa who was invited to mediate, as a 'friend and neighbour.' The Sri Lankan president held discussions with members of the MDP and the opposition parties, as well as former president Gayoom, and helped initiate a dialogue in a bid to resolve the crisis.
Nasheed has gained respect internationally among environmentalists for his vigorous advocacy in the area of climate change.

The Maldives itself is a country threatened with the prospect of going under water if climate change continues to raise sea levels. Not surprisingly, environmentalists are among those who have come to his aid in the current crisis. One such group is "350.org" - named after the number that scientists say is the safe upper limit for carbon dioxide - measured in "Parts Per Million" in our atmosphere. "350.org" has launched an online petition titled "Help President Nasheed" to put diplomatic pressure on the coup leaders to avoid violence and to work for a peaceful, democratic solution to their conflict.

http://act.350.org/sign/help_nasheed/

The haste with which some governments gave recognition to the new dispensation gives rise to some questioning. India's External Affairs Ministry issued a statement dated Wed. 8th , just one day after the coup, to say Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had sent a letter of felicitation in which he "has assured the new President of the Maldives Dr. Mohamed Waheed of continued support to the Maldivian people and cooperation with the Government of the Maldives."

US recognition came two days after Nasheed's overthrow. At the daily press briefing on Thursday (8th), when asked if the U.S. "considers the new government a legitimate government of the Maldives," State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland replied "We do."

Sri Lanka's External Affairs Ministry issued a statement dated Tues. 7th giving cautious assurances of the government's "fullest support and co-operation to the Government of the Maldives in its efforts to bring peace and stability to the country and prosperity to the Maldivian people." But this came before there was any clarity over the circumstances of Nasheed's exit.

India's role in the recent events in the Maldives is far from clear. A report in the "Times of India" said "India was actively involved in the changeover.""Even as the violence on the streets of Male and Addu escalated, national security adviser Shivshankar Menon held a spate of meetings here on Thursday to see how India can ensure several things.

First, impress upon the new government that former president Nasheed should not be targeted, harmed or imprisoned; second, that the transition to the new regime be as peaceful as possible; that the new government should ensure continuity rather than sweeping changes and lastly that the new government should honour all its agreements." (Times of India 10.02.12) How was India "actively involved in the changeover?"

We are still to be enlightened on this point. We do know from media reports that Indian ships and planes were in readiness to carry out an evacuation of foreigners (presumably Indian nationals) from the Maldives if the need arose. In the case of the Maldivian crisis, as in all regional crises, it would be a mistake to underestimate India's hegemonic interests, and their ramifications.