The battle for the presidency of the United States of America is a dead heat, according to three recently-released polls.
Although President Barack Obama is personally popular, his policies are very unpopular, therefore hurting his poll numbers. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has just finished a bruising primary that's suppressed his poll numbers.
Now, the battle for the presidency is an Obama versus Romney proposition. Election Day is not until November 6, yet the campaigns are firing up supporters and working on election themes.
Recent polling provides strong evidence that this race is very close. FOX News has the race at 46% to 46%, Rasmussen at 48% to 45% for Romney and Gallup at 49% to 43% for Obama. The Real Clear Politics average has Obama with a 3.7% lead, yet any incumbent under 50%, (Obama is at 47.6%) is in trouble. It is over six months to the general election, but I can say with confidence that this race is a virtual tie today.
The early skirmishes in the fight will be in traditional swing states with a close division between registered Republicans and Democrats. Only 12 of the 50 states are considered in play in the fight for electoral votes.
According to The Hill, citing a poll by Purple Strategies, 'Obama leads Romney 48 percent to 44 in the 12 battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.' The fact that Obama is stuck at 48% in these swing states puts them all in play.
Romney has a lead with independents 46% to 44%. Furthermore, the unemployment numbers in North Carolina are so bad, most analysts don't see any way Obama can win that state even with some early positive poll numbers.
Clearly, the two most important states out of the twelve battleground states are Florida and Ohio. Real Clear Politics has Obama up by 4.2% in Florida and that may be one reason why Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been campaigning with Romney recently. Many are looking at Rubio as the most likely pick for VP for Romney, because of his Cuban-American heritage, his speaking ability and the fact that in 2010 he won a statewide election for one of the two Florida Senate seats.
Ohio will be a battleground state and President Obama will be spending some time next week in Ohio and Virginia to officially launch his campaign. Expect these candidates to spend most of their campaign time in the 12 battleground states with a special focus on Florida and Ohio.
Almost all of the states are winner take all in the electoral college. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the Presidency. This election is expected to be close, so expect Romney and Obama to spend quite a bit of time trying to secure Florida's 29 electoral votes and Ohio's 18 electoral votes.
These two states may end up determining the next president.
© Daily Mail, Londo |
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