The upcoming year will be vital for Sri Lanka's history, mainly because the government seems determined to implement the political package aimed at resolving the ethnic crisis before the end of 1998.
But, the opposition UNP is dragging its feet. So far it had failed to take a clear stand on the issue, though it has made various suggestions from time to time.
The UNP also appears to be divided on the government's proposals, while the party committees are studying the issues and preparing alternative proposals.
However, the government appears to be firm. It wants the UNP's proposals as soon as possible since it feels time is running out.
President Chandrika Kumaratunga's recent statement that she would implement the political package with or without the help of the UNP has apparently stirred the UNP hierarchy.
UNP leaders feel President Kumaratunga and some ministers in the government are trying to make them uncomfortable at a time when they are building up a healthy relationship with Minister G. L. Peiris to arrive at a reasonable solution to the crisis.
On the other hand, the People's Alliance feels that the UNP is trying to avoid the issue through political antics and wants to drag matters on. This, has apparently, made the government suspicious of the UNP's sincerity.
Jaffna Town: is it ready for change?
In the circumstances the government is planning to hold a non-binding referendum in the first half of the next year, much to the chagrin of the UNP.
Though it does not give any constitutional or legal validity or does not empower the government to scrap the present Constitution, the legal drafters are planning to word one or two questions in a manner that enables the government to constitute a constituent assembly to go ahead with the present set of proposals.
The government will also go head as scheduled with the Provincial Council elections, for which the PA and the UNP have started processing applications of possible candidates.
The PA, before all this takes place, is trying to take a major political step forward by summoning an annual convention, for the first time, of all the constituent parties of the alliance.
For this, it is hoping to bring in as many political parties which are not in the PA but are supporting it politically.
At present the PA hierarchy is holding talks with minority Tamil parties with the hope of forming a broader alliance sans the New Democratic United National (Lalith) Front.
Though all this has been planned by the PA, the focus at present is mainly on the Local Government polls in the Jaffna peninsula.
The elections have been fixed to be held on January 29, and the contending parties have begun campaigning.
The main Tamil political party, the TULF suffered a setback when its lists for Jaffna Municipality and Valigamam North Pradeshiya Sabha were rejected on technical grounds.
Apparently, the party's nomination list for the Jaffna Municipality was rejected on the ground that one of the candidates who is now over 18 years was not registered as a voter at the time the nomination list was revised in June this year.
TULF's Vice President V. Anandsangari had welcomed this as a blessing in disguise and said the TULF would not challenge the decision of the Returning Officer. But TULF top rung member Neelan Thiruchelvam had indicated the party would challenge the rejection.
There had been some confusion in political circles over the rejection of these nomination papers. The dispute is whether the candidate should be over 18 before January 29, the day of the elections, or before nominations closed.
In the meantime Sarojini Yogeswaran, the TULF's Mayoral nominee had apologised to the people of Jaffna for failing to process their nomination papers properly.
"It is our mistake and I hope people will forgive us," she told reporters at her residence in Jaffna on Wednesday.
But now it appears that Ms. Yogeswaran's sympathisers are with the PLOTE.
When PLOTE's Mayoral candidate Manickam Dasan made a private visit to Ms. Yogeswaran's house to express his sympathies over the rejection of nomination papers she said "victory is yours".
Ms. Yogeswaran is the widow of former Jaffna Parliamentarian V. Yogeswaran who was slain by the LTTE along with TULF leader A. Amirthalingam while the Premadasa regime was having talks with the rebels.
Apart from Douglas Devananda's EPDP and Siddharthan's PLOTE, the other main party contesting the Jaffna local elections is the EPRLF, which at one time held the North-Eastern Provincial Council under Chief Minister Varatharaja Perumal.
PA candidates sponsored by the Sudu Nelum Organisation in Jaffna are also contesting on the EPRLF list.
Though one SLFP organizer in Jaffna, Velmurugu Thangarajah came to Colombo with his nomination list to be signed by SLFP General Secretary Dharmasiri Senanayake, he could not fill the papers due to problems between the SLFP and the Sudu Nelum Organization in Jaffna.
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D. Siddharthan |
Neelan Tiruchelvam |
Douglas Devananda |
The Sudu Nelum Organization and the SLFP branches in Jaffna are known to be at logger heads over what the latter feel are domineering tactics by the newly-formed groups.
According to reports reaching Colombo, SLFP organizers in Jaffna have complained that most of the work in Jaffna has been handed over to Sudu Nelum.
The Sudu Nelum is led by a person earlier known as Nesan but now is called Mangala Nesan, taking the first name of the powerful minister behind the organization. Some wags point out that the name now means lover of Mangala.
Apart from Mangala Nesan, a former N-E provincial minister is also playing a key role in Sudu Nelum work in Jaffna.
However the main contest appears to be between the EPDP and the PLOTE.
The PLOTE has apparently got hold of the Rameswaram brothers who were sacked from the EPDP recently over a dispute with the leadership. However, these two brothers still hold their parliamentary seats since the Supreme Court held with them after they challenged their expulsion.
The two Rameswarans were first to file nominations in the Jaffna Kachcheri having fielded candidates to Kayts to and Velanai Pradeshiya Sabhas.
They are now being backed by the PLOTE in a bid to break block votes of the EPDP.
Soon after handing over nominations, the Rameswaram brothers held a news conference and accused another party of not allowing them to campaign freely in the islands of the peninsula. They were obviously referring to the EPDP.
With the help of the Rameswaram brothers and TULF supporters, the PLOTE appears to be making headway in the peninsula.
The PLOTE is confident that it could win the Jaffna Municipal elections simply because it did not have much friction with the people of Jaffna at any time and it did not work with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Jaffna.
At the same time it has fielded Manickam Dasan as its mayoral candidate. Manickam's family apparently had been involved in "local politics" in Jaffna for quite some time and politics of a violent nature is not new to him as he was the military wing leader of the PLOTE.
Though this may stand as a disadvantage, PLOTE is confident that Manickam would scrape through.
Manickam has a close link to the South too, being the first cousin of the slain JVP deputy leader Upatissa Gamanayake.
Apart from personalities, the caste factor plays a major role in Jaffna. Of the 29 wards in the Jaffna Municipal area, at least seven members are elected to the Council from depressed castes, while the fishermen occupying the coastal areas elect four councillors.
The higher "Vellala" caste is split and a majority of them are either abroad or out of Jaffna while the Muslims have not been re-settled yet.
The Muslims generally elect at least four members to the Council.
But under the present circumstances what is more important for the people is the kind of relief that they could get from the new civil administration.
In a bid to win votes the EPDP has already spelt out some relief measures that would be granted to the people if they are returned to office.
EPDP leader Douglas Devananda is to offer tax relief for the Jaffna toddy industry.
According to reports large sums of money are due to the authorities from these toddy renters since the local authorities had not been able to collect taxes for many years due to the presence of the LTTE .
Mr. Devananda is trying to woo the Jaffna vote by giving them many pledges but it is important at this juncture to calculate as to how the TULF supporters would use their vote in this election.
Capturing power in the Jaffna Municipality is the prime idea of all the parties contesting, but most of the candidates are in Colombo and largely unknown to the Jaffna citizen.
As far as UNP is concerned, it is planning to launch an anti-corruption drive throughout the country in 1998.
The locomotive issue, Q.E.Q tender and government's privatization programme, including AirLanka will take a prominent place in its agenda for 1998.
Though some say the UNP's anti-corruption drive would not have much effect, others say it is the prime duty of the opposition to pin point the flaws of the present regime.
However since the UNP's image has been tainted by corruption during the latter part of its 17-year rule, PA is waiting to capitalize on those issues rather than talking about its concept of transparency.
As a part of this exercise of exposing the UNP, the PA will initially take up the resolution against Wijeyapala Mendis at the beginning of the year.
The PA knows that it would embarrass the party if the resolution is taken up in the early part of 1998 as a part of its fresh offensive against the UNP.
In the circumstances the UNP hierarchy is planning to force Mr. Mendis to resign to show the country that the UNP under the new leadership has altogether a different approach.
At the same time, the UNP is getting ready for the Provincial Council elections scheduled to be held before May next year.
The party has so far received more than 1000 applications from various parts of the country but it is facing a dilemma as to who should contest the top slot in the Western Provincial Council.
Many think Karu Jayasuriya would take the challenge, but the ground situation is not favourable for the UNP in the Western Province, Gampaha being a PA stronghold. More than the Western Province, the UNP is concentrating on other areas, trying to retain most of the councils which it is holding at present.
However, it is not immediately clear what the CWC's stand is, especially in the plantation areas. It is more likely to go with the government, but since it is losing its grip in the areas under its influence, UNP is likely gain advantage over the PA in the plantation hills.
The current trend in the country is being studied by the UNP. The party hierarchy has appointed special teams to go into various matters.
The party has also appointed secretaries in charge of various subjects devolving powers entrusted to the General Secretary thus diluting his role. However, General Secretary Gamini Atukorale who is popular among a section of the UNPers is smart enough to launch attacks at his rivals. Their main target is the party leader's trusted lieutenant Charitha Ratwatte who works as Secretary Operations. The general view of the insiders is that though Charitha had been appointed to sideline the General Secretary, Mr. Atukorale's offensive against Charitha had apparently reduced him to a back- room operator.
Besides these internal squabbles in the party, the UNP is trying to solicit the support of the international community to exert pressure on the government to have a dialogue with the LTTE before arriving at any solution.
Over the past month or so, party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe met several western diplomats to discuss the urgent political situation, latest among them being the new American Ambassador.
The American interest in the local political agenda seems to be growing with another American delegation associated with the Senate foreign relations committee arriving in Sri Lanka on January 3.
The American delegation is likely to meet state officials and technocrats in the opposition UNP, headed by party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Mr. Wickremesinghe appears to be a happy man these days, especially after the UNP Convention held in mid-December which according to his standards is successful.
But he has a problem at hand associated with the Yowun Peramuna of the UNP and in 1998 he is planning to take some measures to weed out those who he sees as rebellious, to strengthen his position as the party leader.
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