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 6th September 1998 |
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Government dips into captive fundsBy Mel GunasekeraThe government borrowed an additional Rs. 5 bn in Treasury Bills (TBills) through a private placement recently, pushing their TBill limit upto Rs. 120 bn, financial sources said. Government is said to have tapped captive sources, possibly EPF/ETF to increase their short-term borrowings. These short term funds may not enter the 3-month TBill market, as the maturity could be as short as one week, sources added. TBills with 3, 6 and 12 month maturity are only issued for the open market. Budgeted defence expenditure of around Rs 44 bn is expected to overrun this year, resulting in heavier government borrowing, Deputy Finance Minister Prof. G L Peiris said recently. The government intends to raise an additional Rs. 8 bn to Rs. 10 bn required via Treasury Bills and Treasury Bonds. The present statutory limit for TBills is Rs. 125 bn while the limit for Treasury Bonds is Rs. 32 bn. Last August, the Central Bank retired Rs. 10 bn in TBills with a part of the proceeds from of Sri Lanka Telecom sales. Accordingly the total TBills outstanding declined from Rs. 125 bn to Rs. 115 bn. However, the Treasury is permitted to borrow TBills up to Rs. 125 bn with Finance Ministry approval but without parliamentary approval. The government's recent move took primary dealers by surprise. There was a lot of speculation in the market recently when the captive sources refrained from participating in the recent TBill auctions. Dealers felt the government could have trusted them by issuing the additional TBills via the market, but this would push the short term interest rates up further. There are reservations that the government would be able to hold onto their target budget deficit of Rs. 8 bn. The budget deficit is expected to be lower than that of 1997, but might be slightly higher than the original target of 1998, Central Bank Research Director, R A Jayatissa said. However, market sources say that the deficit would over step to around Rs. 10 bn due to fiscal constraints. The increased level of borrowing has put upward pressure on across the board interest rates. TBill rates have moved up steadily over the year from 10.21per cent (end Dec 1997) to close at 12.51 per cent for the week ending August 28th1998. The upward movement of interest rates will have an adverse impact on the growing debt market, as an upward shift in the yield curve will result in downward pressure on the debenture issues and force higher yields out of new issues. Continued government borrowing and lower levels of privatisation proceeds should see interest rates continue to move up during the next few weeks. Adding to the pressure and volatility on short-term rates, has been the tightening of liquidity and speculation caused by the depreciation of the rupee.
Commercial Bank in daring moveClosely following the success of their initial public issue of fixed rate debentures, Commercial Bank is tipped to issue a Rs. 250 mn in a five year, floating rate debentures. The interest rate would be linked to the 3-month Treasury Bill plus a 1 per cent premium, a senior official said. Awaiting CSE approval, this would be the first listed floating rate debenture to be issued in Sri Lanka, commercial bank sources said. The new instrument would be a more attractive long-term debt instrument depending on the short term market conditions, they added. The Bank's previous Rs. 250 mn debenture was used to fund their housing loan portfolio. However, the new issue would be used to enhance their existing product portfolio, a bank official said. While financial circles welcomed the latest addition to the market, they said a protective floor or a cap on the interest rate would make it more successful. A floor on the interest rate would be beneficial to the investor, in the event interest rates decline. A cap on the other hand, would be useful to the issuer, in the event interest rates rise. With the uncertainty of interest rates prevailing at present, this is the ideal situation to raise long term money at low cost, analysts said. (MG)
Ringgit holders bewareMalaysian Ringgit holders should dump their holdings within the month (before September 30th), a Central Bank release said. The new exchange control regulations in Malaysia are available at Colombo banks, the release adds. The Malaysian Central Bank, the Bank Negara Malaysia last week introduced a series of measures to insulate their economy from risks and uncertainties of external developments. These measures include a range of foreign exchange and capital control measures in dealing in gold and foreign currency, external accounts, general payments, export of goods, credit facilities and ringgit credit facilities from non-residents, securities, LABUAN international off-shore financial centre and import and export of currency notes, bills of exchange, assurance policies.
Exports pave the way......Having weathered the storm in 1996/97 in its two main segments, ceramic
tiles and ceramic tableware (porcelain is a derivative) which once again
look promising, Sri Lanka's ceramic sector is still not out Lanka Tile (LTL), Lanka Walltile (LWL) and Royal Ceramics (RCL) manufacture floortiles - the worst affected sector in the industry. Although both demand-related constraints and external factors such as the power crisis in 1996 has adversely affected the industry, it is this very sector that has bounced back. Untimely capacity expansions, which raised ceramic-tile capacity from 3.4 mn sq. metres at the beginning of 1995 to 6.3 mn sq. metres by end-1996, resulted in tile producers struggling to increase sales volumes by similar levels, a recent Jardine Fleming Research report states. A combination of factors - a sluggish domestic economy, regional capacity expansions of more than 40 per cent in much larger volumes, and a more recent Asean crisis causing export markets to become very price competitive - had caused tile producers to reach a trough in performance in 1996/97. In 1997, the overall domestic tile market recovered to grow by 29.33 per cent. Local tile producers either made improved profits or broke even. The export market for ceramic tiles is still expected to be sluggish in 1998, mainly due to the drivers of demand for this product, JF researcher Rajev Dharmendra said. Although quality does play an important role in the selection of tiles, the pricing factor is more crucial, he said. Despite real average export prices declining by 25 per cent, regional tile producers continue to offer prices that are over 50 per cent cheaper than Sri Lankan tiles. The general consensus is that tiles from Sri Lanka are of higher quality than those produced by other regional tile manufacture. But the pricing factor and the inability to meet large orders has kept exports for Sri Lankan tiles at bay. Sri Lankan tile producers have the luxury of sourcing more than 80 per cent of the raw material requirement domestically; hence they do not face any rupee-related cost escalations. Despite this strong cost advantage, other regional tile producers are offering prices that are lower than those offered by Sri Lankan producers. Thus, it is unlikely that any of Sri Lanka's tile producers will secure any significant export orders in 1998, JF report states. Having said that, LTL and LWL have focused their attention on the domestic tile market, which is expected to grow by about 27.3 per cent in 1998. They have taken bold steps to revoke the duty-free concessions - these gave them greater flexibility to sell locally - they were granted during their capacity expansions. Domestic sales will be the main earnings driver for these companies in 1998. However, local tile producers are not expected to vacate export market completely because it would prove all the more difficult to re-enter. Instead, they are likely to adopt a policy of exporting to a niche market in the west, while holding their ground in regional markets, which we believe, once it starts to improve, will give the highest volumes. The floortile market is expected to have the strongest growth rate of 28.77 per cent with producers extending their focus from the Colombo market. Their regional distribution outlets have begun to develop suburban and rural markets. This is due to the shift in the sales strategies of local producers, the development of outstation markets, an expected 24.6 per cent increase in imports and the entrance of new tile suppliers, such as Interbatch Porcelain in 1998. The domestic market for walltiles is virtually monopolised by LWL. At 3.2 mn sq. metres, LWL possesses more than twice the capacity of the floortile market. The company's capital expansion strategy was targeted at the export market. Although LWL is expected to turn its attention to the domestic market - the most practical step it can take under the present conditions - it will have to revert to exports for significant volume growth. Unlike the pattern in western markets, floortiles and walltiles do not move together in the domestic market, especially in the suburban and rural areas. Thus, we anticipate the 25 per cent growth rate for the domestic walltile market to be only a temporary haven for LWL, JF said. Only two of the five major players in the ceramic/porcelain tableware market are listed in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). Dankotuwa Porcelain (DPL) and Lanka Ceramic (LCL) are listed. During the past three years, export growth has been increasing steadily at 11.5 per cent. Unlike tiles, porcelain tableware is considered an exclusive market and is not greatly influenced by price. Sri Lanka's high quality porcelain exports have a niche market in countries like USA, which is estimated to be the largest buyer of Sri Lankan porcelain products. The USA purchases about 45 per cent of total exports. Changing lifestyles due to urbanisation and the affordability of locally manufactured porcelainware has eaten into the market share of the only manufacturer of ceramic tableware, LCL. It currently has a 37 per cent market share, down from 43 per cent in 1995. DPL manufactures porcelain tableware for both the export and domestic markets.
Economy: where is it heading?By Feizal Samath
The Central Bank last week said it was revising its GDP (gross domestic product, which measures economic growth) forecast for this year to 5.0 - 5.5 percent growth compared to an original projection of 5.5 to 6.0 percent. Earlier in the year, the bank said growth would be in the region of six percent and over. A spokesperson for Econsult, a private economic thinktank, said economic growth was likely to be less than five percent compared to their earlier estimate of a little over five percent. Other economists believed it would be between 4.7 and 5.0 percent. "Next year will be crucial and the economic fallout would be felt then," says Nanda Nair, head of research at John Keells Stock Brokers. Dr Nimal Sanderatne, economist and chairman of the National Development Bank (NDB) agrees: "Next year will be a critical year." Stockmarkets are crashing all over the world, tea markets have nose-dived
and the global economy is All kinds of wild rumours have been floating in stock and currency markets this week, adding to speculative trading and confusion. "For the first time in my eight-year old career as an investment banker, I am staring at a black hole. I don't know what is going to happen; what the future holds for the stockmarket," moaned a Colombo stockmarket analyst. Colombo's stock market has fallen to a seven-year low. On Thursday, the all-share index eased by 9.3 percent to 460 points from the level on August 28. Like most prudent stockbrokers, John Keells' Nandakumar Nair is reluctant to hazard a guess as to where the index is heading this year. "Our stockmarkets are connected to the international environment and where that is going, no one knows," he said. Nair said that the international outlook on stocks is to "invest in safety and not in value." "That essentially means to get out of equity and invest in safe instruments like debt." Last week, the Colombo stockmarket continued on its downward spiral and the tea market followed suit. The crash in both markets have been more or less been triggered by the free fall in the Russian rouble. Russia accounts for a bulk of Sri Lanka's tea exports.
Plantation stock values fell by 13 percent about two weeks back, against the previous week, and last week too saw a similar fall - though actual percentages were not immediately available. Corporate earnings growth is also set to fall next year, according to a spokesman at Jardine Fleming Stock Brokers. "Corporate earnings showed a 80 percent growth in the first quarter of the current financial year and this has fallen to 30 percent in the second quarter. Even if the rate of earnings growth falls further in the next two quarters, corporate earnings should be okay. The global impact however would be felt in the next financial year," he said. The Econsult source said that the Colombo stockmarket all-share index falling to below the 500 point level was unexpected while the Russian tea crisis came as a surprise. Analysts said that the Colombo stockmarket has been on a downward trend for many months, in line with international developments, but the Russian crisis triggered the panic that set in. "It was like herd mentality. People pulled out in panic," one broker said. Another Colombo stockmarket analyst said global markets were in total disarray and "everything was going wrong." He said that the Malaysia move to impose foreign exchange controls has triggered some serious thinking among other affected East Asian nations as to whether there should be some control on foreign outflows as a protective measure. "We may be looking at a return to the era of exchange controls," he said. In a way, Sri Lanka's restricted capital account policies helped to ward off any immediate impact from the East Asian crisis. Nevertheless, there are other ways that the country would be affected - uncompetitive trade, exports and tourism. Coupled with a continued fall in tea prices for the second week running, the Colombo tea trade was also unable to resolve the credit squeeze imposed by banks. Hasitha de Alwis, director of the Tea Promotion Bureau, said that last Monday's meeting between the Tea Board, Central Bank, banks and exporters failed to come up with a solution to the crisis.
Mind your BusinessBy Business BugTea Too? These days, everyone is talking of crashing stocks in Colombo's market, where shares are at a seven-year low and Blue chips are going at bargain prices. Few, however are aware that a similar crisis is awaiting the tea industry, following the devaluation of the Russian Rouble. The tea trade has sent an SOS to the government. The solution that is being pursued is to try to get the Indian markets liberalised for our tea exports as soon as possible. And that too was on the good Professor's agenda, when he crossed the Straits last week, we hear. Fizzled Out Banning alcohol and tobacco promotion may seem healthy to some but it may not be very healthy to the economy, others argue. One brewery, bottling what they say is probably the best beer in the world, has shelved ambitious plans to expand production. Another has said it would not increase output until the impact the ban on advertising is known. So, people in the breweries are not a happy lot these days. Better Late Ever wondered how all these wonder drugs touting better memory, virility or hair colour comes to be advertised freely in the local media. That is because we do not have proper drug registration laws, or so it seems. Now, new laws are being contemplated to try to put an end to such free-for-all marketing.
Quarterly national income statisticsThe Central Bank should be con gratulated in developing a set of national income statistics on a quarterly basis. The Central Bank has provided us with a set of national income statistics for the first quarter of this year together with a comparison of last year's first quarter national income. Thus far, both the Department of Census and Statistics as well as the Central Bank have generated only annual national income figures. It used to be said that Sri Lanka's state of statistics was such that quarterly national accounting was nearly impossible. Many experiments done in the past emphasised the difficulties of obtaining data on a quarterly basis. Now many of the problems appear to have been resolved. These statistics would give a better understanding of what is currently happening in the economy rather than wait till about May each year to know the previous year's performance. The situation could have changed drastically by then. Being better informed of the current developments would enable both the private sector and the government to take quick remedial measures and respond to the emerging developments. In interpreting these quarterly statistics, several factors must be kept in mind. First, that the collection of statistical data on a quarterly basis could be more defective than on an annual basis. This will be particularly so in the initial years when the Central Bank, the responding institutions and the statistical records would be less geared to provide these figures. The second factor is that quarterly annual income data reflect seasonal factors. For instance, agricultural production has a very prominent seasonal feature. Paddy production falls mainly into two quarters as harvesting is in two clearly defined periods. The main paddy output is during the Maha season which falls mainly into the first quarter of each year. The Yala output is only half and falls into the third quarter of each year. Similarly with respect to other agricultural output there are seasonal variations. Comparison with the corresponding quarter is more reliable due to this reason. When comparing the second quarter with the first or the third with the second, these seasonal factors have an important bearing and they should be kept in mind. It must also be recognised that owing to these seasonal factors each quarter is not of equal importance in the annual estimate of national income. Some quarters would contribute more than others. Also some production statistics of one period may be gathered only in the next quarter or perhaps in the last quarter. Despite these problems, the availability of quarterly national income accounts also provide a better basis for predicting the annual outurn. Many investors complained about the lack of current information on the economy. 'The non-availability of national income data on a quarterly basis in the past was a hindrance to their judgment, particularly for the second half of each year. Consequently, private organisations with probably very little basis, tended to predict the country's national income. Even the Central Bank's estimates were looked at with a great degree of scepticism owing to the non-availability of specific national income data during the course of the year. Now that we have made this breakthrough, the Central Bank and other statistical agencies, as well as the private sector, which have to provide such information necessary for the compilation of quarterly estimates, should make every effort to make the quarterly collection and estimation of production data as reliable as possible. 'It is a well known fact that improvements in statistical gathering occur with practice and the regular collection of such data. Therefore we can expect the quarterly national income statistics of the future to improve, be more reliable, and be a better indicator of our economic performance.
Nature tourism; Woodlands sets the paceBy feizal SamathDespite tears welling in their eyes, they peel the onions, dabble with red chilli powder or mix the salad. These are not poor women struggling in a dreary kitchen but foreign tourists learning the culinary delights of Sri Lanka. This is the new age of eco-tourism, a growing industry in the world where tourists prefer to learn about the customs, food habits, culture, environment and history of countries they visit rather than laze on the beach or spend time in curio shops or beauty spots. At the Woodlands Network in the hill station of Bandarawela, about 180 km from Colombo, this is exactly what tourists get and they are delighted. A group of 20 young Germans, among whom are students, doctors and engineers, are learning to cook a simple Sri Lankan rice and curry meal, at "Student House", a small hotel run by Woodlands. Sarojini Ellawela, manager of Woodlands Network, has laid out the vegetables, spices and other ingredients to prepare a meal of rice with dhal (lentils), potato and fish. The young Germans begin cooking with gusto guided by Ellawela in the main dining hall of Student House. Later the group have the meal they cooked and is then taken to a small tea estate owned by a Sri Lankan villager and thereafter a four-five km walk leads them to a jungle hermitage of a Buddhist monk. It is all part of the Woodlands Network's promotion of nature tourism, the country's culture and dozens of off-the-beaten track places in Sri Lanka. Much of this effort comes from Harry Haas, a Roman Catholic priest from Holland who decided to make Sri Lanka his home in 1983 - ironically at a time when Sri Lankan Tamils were fleeing the country and tourists were reluctant to visit after widespread riots. Haas, lover of nature and with an abiding interest in tourism, settled in Bandarawela and started a spices factory but later turned to his pet love, nature and tourism, to promote the mountainous town known as a health resort because of its fresh air, chilly winds and naturally-landscaped hills. The 73-year old Dutchman, says the state pension that he gets from Holland is more than enough for him, has taken upon himself to promote Bandarawela and surrounding towns like Haputale, Ella, Welimada and Diyatalawa - which he calls the health triangle - and put it on the world map of tourism. He has succeeded and with the help of the all-women Woodlands Network, which Haas founded in 1993, has many individual foreign travellers and tourist groups visiting their offices in Bandarawela and using their services. "There is great potential in this place. Unfortunately much of the tourism to Sri Lanka is mass tourism and places like Bandarawela are ignored," says Haas, sitting in his office as he greets the German group of tourists in German. Haas gives them a 30-minute briefing in German about the natural beauty of Bandarawela and places to visit like tea estates and small waterfalls. "The places we show are all off the beaten track and hitherto unvisited. This is the beauty of this country. It's natural environment, its people, the culture. That's what foreign visitors would like to see." The Woodlands effort has won international awards in the promotion of nature tourism and drew accolades at a recent conference in Colombo where hoteliers, environmentalists and government planners met to chart a long-term plan to promote eco-tourism as a sustainable alternative for growth. The tiny island, some 65,000 sq-kms in area, packs a magnificent diversity — cultural, climatic and environmental — linked by a long and well-preserved history. For centuries, travellers and explorers like the Chinese traveller Fa Hsien have written of the beauty of this ancient land. And that's what Haas and other environmentalists believe should be promoted - Sri Lanka's people, its culture and diversity. Woodlands attracts between six to eight 20-member groups of German tourists each year and many single walk-in tourists who are provided with accommodation and food at a nominal fee and day-long programmes, including a long list of "walks, hikes and treks." "Some guests are on long-stays and are in Bandarawela for over three months and over," said Ellawela, a former trade unionist who joined Woodlands at the inception. She said that the six women who comprise Woodlands, along with Haas who now works as a volunteer consultant to allow the women freedom to run the organisation, are involved in tourism, catering, running the "House" and computer services. Gnana Dissanayake, a woman from a nearby village, joined Haas in 1992 and was trained by a visiting German student in computers and electronic mail. "In fact we were one of the few institutions to offer an e-mail facility in Sri Lanka in 1992," Dissanayake says proudly. Woodlands income of about 40,000 rupees per month (much of which goes to pay salaries to its members) comes from computer services, catering, hotel services and handling charges - which is for picking up tourists at the airport and guiding them to their destination. The German group's local guide is Dimithri Silva, a Sri Lankan who works for a German agency called Studios. Silva, who speaks German fluently having lived in Germany for 12 years, said that his company handles classical tours - for the over 45-years generation - and study groups for younger people. "Both are popular packages and are a deviation from mass tourism," he said adding that Studios organises up to eight tours a year to Sri Lanka. Bandarawela and the Woodlands stop - which Silva says is an excellent way to show the country's culture and make people-to-people contact -, cultural sites and rock temples, environmental projects, a traditional Buddhist pageant, a train ride through the mountains, and climbing Adams Peak - Sri Lanka's most sacred seven km-high mountain, takes up most of a normal 14-day tour. "There is a bit of insight into culture, meeting people and visiting the diverse places of interest in Sri Lanka. There is particular interest in visiting temples, mosques and churches and mingling with a mix of religions in such a small island," said Silva who believes that Sri Lanka's future lies in this type of tourism. Woodlands has received a lot of publicity in international guide books like Lonely Planet and a number of German magazines and has done extensive research on the potential of tourism in Bandarawela and the places to visit.
Currency control: A way to combat Asian crisisWriting in the September 7 issue of FORTUNE, eminent MIT economist Paul Krugman warns that the current attempts to deal with the Asian economic crisis have only made it worse, and he advocates exchange controls in Asia as a radical - but necessary step. Citing the failure of current International Monetary Fund measures (what he calls "Plan A") to deal with the disastrous situation, Krugman analyses the options and calls for the admittedly extreme remedy of exchange controls, which have been out of fashion as a means of dealing with economic destabilization. "It's time to talk about Plan B," he says. In "Saving Asia: It's Time to Get Radical" Krugman, whose analyses of Asia have proved prescient before, cites China as an example of a way out of the crisis. "Why hasn't China been nearly as badly hit as its neighbours? Because it has been able to cut, not raise, interest rates in this crisis, despite maintaining a fixed exchange rate; and the reason it is able to do that is that it has an inconvertible currency, a.k.a. exchange controls" Krugman writes. "Those controls are often evaded and they are the source of lots of corruption, but they still give China a degree of policy leeway that the rest of Asia desperately wishes it had." Krugman says it's no surprise that the IMF and the US Treasury haven't said anything about alternative, to the current Asian strategy. "The key players are neither stupid nor doctrinaire," Krugman writes, "but as a political matter they must of course always express complete confidence in whatever harsh medicine they prescribe. Moreover, even to hint at the possibility of exchange controls might itself cause capital flight and force Asian countries to raise interest rates rather than lower them. In other words, Plan B is like a devaluation: Officials always deny firmly that they would even consider the possibility of such a thing until the moment they do it." A longtime colleague of economist and IMF official Stanley Fischer and Lawrence Summers of the US Treasury, Krugman addresses the awkwardness of proposing such an extreme measure and discusses the implicit "gag rule" that prevents not only officials but anyone associated with the current strategy - bankers, major institutional investors - from being too vocal about an alternative. There is some self-imposed moral pressure on those who have no policy role but are nonetheless broadly sympathetic with the policy makers and their dilemmas, Krugman says, "Consider, for example, the situation of an economics professor and sometime journalist who has known Fischer and Summers all his professional life, wishes them well, and understands why they initially tried Plan A," he writes. "As you might imagine, he would be very reluctant to go public with his doubts - say, to suggest in a major business magazine that the time has come for Plan B - unless he was pretty definitely convinced that Plan A had reached a dead end." The September 7 issue of FORTUNE is available on newsstands beginning August 24. "Saving Asia: It's Time to Get Radical" and other FORTUNE stories are available at www.fortune.com."
Dominos deliversBy Mel GunasekeraThe American Pizza delivery giant Dominos Pizza is set to cater to the gastronomical delights of Colombo, when they commence their operations next year. A leading commercial bank, MMBSL has secured the franchise to establish a chain outlet in Colombo. "We have entered into an MOU with Dominos Pizza of India to set up a chain of outlets in Colombo," Managing Director MMBSL, Uddaka Tennakoon said. He said a new subsidiary of MMBSL would be floated to operate the pizza chain. Whilst refraining from disclosing the name of the new company, he said they hope to seek BOI approval once the new company is floated. Dominos are essentially a major pizza delivery company in the USA with over 6,000 outlets worldwide. Though there is a big demand for the company to set up restaurants, they have refrained from entering into such agreements, as they are preferred to concentrate on pizza deliveries, he said. Domino's specialise in delivering pizza's within 30 minutes of ordering. If the pizzas are not delivered on time, customers would have an option of either asking for a refund, refusing their pizza or accepting their order and with a discount.
More Business * Bumpy road ahead for our rubber * Rouble troubles tea exporters * Japanese aid for textile training * Lanka gets ready for Expo 2000 * Of bugs and the new Millennium * Will SMI sector deliver the goods? * MLL: modest gains and strategy for better future * SLBDC to train estate youth *
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of
the woods. Although the industry is beginning to grow again, most ceramics
sector stocks are not geared to benefit from it. The listed ceramic sector
stocks are dominated by stocks in the ceramics tile industry.
The
gloomy global economic and political environment may not drastically hit
the Sri Lankan economy this year, despite slower than projected economic
growth rates, but the fallout would be felt in 1999, economists and analysts
said.
slowing
down with East Asia struggling to overcome the currency crisis, Japan in
recession and Russia's economy in tatters.
Concern
about the earnings of Colombo's big conglomerates, which are showing growing
reliance on tea plantations, arising out of the Russian crisis caused panic
among stockmarket investors.