The Political Column

6th December 1998

Delhi pulling peace strings

By our Political Correspondent

It is said that peace cannot be main tained by force and that it can only be achieved by understanding.

It seems to be true in the Sri Lankan context, too, since the Chandrika Kumaratunga administration is indulging in a war for peace.

It is clear that war alone could not bring peace to Sri Lanka. In the present context, there has to be a concerted effort on the part of both feuding parties to initiate a dialogue for a peaceful settlement.

Tiger supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran in his message to mark the so-called heroes’ day has declared that the LTTE is prepared for a negotiated settlement if peace talks are initiated by a third party.

Should the government respond to this offer?

Prabhakaran has said peace talks cannot take place under the prevailing conditions of war, violence and oppression. The LTTE, he said, was prepared to hold talks in an atmosphere of peace and normalcy in a congenial environment free from military aggression, oppression and economic blockade imposed on the Tamils. He explained that peace talks could not be free, fair and just if the Sri Lankan government utilised military aggression and economic strangulation as political pressures on the Tamil community.

Opposition UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe immediately responded to the LTTE’s call, saying the government should hold talks with the rebels for a negotiated settlement. Mr. Wickremesinghe on an earlier occasion, too, advocated unconditional talks where the government does not have to stop its military thrust against the LTTE.

However, it appears that Prabhakaran’s call is somewhat different. He has laid down some conditions when he said that negotiations could not take place under the prevailing conditions of war, violence and oppression. In other words, they prefer to hold talks in an atmosphere of peace which means that the LTTE is calling for a cessation of hostilities.

The government, it appears, is thinking twice before making its response and it believes an invisible Indian hand is behind this LTTE’s offer. It is believed that the Central Government in India has responded to a call from Hindu fundamentalists, thus forcing the LTTE to make a peace offer.

Under these circumstances, the government is weighing the options, looking into all the aspects before responding. It should be taken into consideration that the Tiger supremo’s offer came after the LTTE unveiled officially its Air Tigers squadron. Simultaneously as Prabhakaran made his peace offer, he let the world know for the first time that the Air Tigers had a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft.

In the circumstances political analysts wonder whether the Tigers are making this offer due to their sagging strength and the need to regroup or some other reason entirely different. Amidst all this, Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar pointedly accused the UNP of representing the LTTE’s view in parliament.

“The UNP is representing the LTTE in parliament. You say that the LTTE is an invincible organisation. Your arguments were almost for the LTTE. You are trying to show how nice and brave they are,” the Minister said, referring to several speeches.

Mr. Kadirgamar said both A.C.S. Hameed and Anura Bandaranaike were saying the government should jump into talks with a pack of murderers. But Mr. Kadirgamar later qualified his statement saying that terrorist organisations did talk at some stage, referring to the PLO and IRA.

But Mr. Hameed replied saying that the LTTE’s foreign offices such as the London and Oslo offices, are in full steam and that all the government propaganda had not hindered their progress.

The US point of view on this episode is that the government should accept the offer by the LTTE whether it comes from India or not.

The government scepticism on this matter arises from the fear it might be walking into an Indian trap where they would be forced to halt all military operations against the LTTE in the north and east.

Since the LTTE has indicated directly its willingness to talk to the government through the mediation of a third party the main opposition has urged the government to respond positively to this offer, one wonders where the business community’s initiative would fit in this scenario.

With the LTTE offer and the UNP’s positive response it appears that the business community’s role has come to an abrupt end. A section of the UNP feels that correspondence between the UNP and the business community is no more necessary under these conditions.

In the event of the government not responding to the call of the LTTE, can the business community achieve anything further through dialogue between the government and the opposition? If the government responds positively what role would they have been left with to play?

However, it is now understood that the opposition leader is expected to nominate the UNP team to liaise with the business community after the business community’s co-ordinating chairman clarified matters. Co-ordinating chairman Lalith Kotelawela has reiterated that they have no hidden agenda and their role was as a facilitator or a corridor for a bi-partisan approach.

Judging from the parliamentary debate on the foreign ministry votes, it does not look as if the government is interested at this stage to talk to the LTTE. Although the UNP speakers, including Mr. Hameed, Mr. Bandaranaike and Karunasena Kodithuwakku pushed the government towards the commitment, Minister Kadirgamar did not come out with anything concrete.

Political analysts say it would be unwise to believe that the LTTE is making the offer because it is pressed against the wall. They are of the opinion that the LTTE must be thinking that it should talk again to the government before it makes up its mind to go for an all-out war.

If the government’s assumption is that the LTTE is pressed against the wall and if it is right, it is fine, said one analyst. If it is wrong, it would be disastrous, he added. “The government has said it would be talking to the LTTE when the rebels are militarily weakened. So it is unwise now to assume that the LTTE is weak because the government has not responded to the LTTE’s offer and the UNP’s call for direct talks with the LTTE.

At the same time, the government must be thinking that the UNP is playing games, the same analyst pointed out. If they feel the UNP has tried to corner them, they will have an equal opportunity if they respond to the UNP’s call, he added. If the government responds positively for peaceful negotiations with the LTTE, the UNP will have no option but to support them that is how the government could push them to a corner. If this becomes a reality, the government and the UNP would have to implement the Liam Fox agreement, he said.

As far as the LTTE is concerned, it does not hope that the government will undergo a fundamental transformation to talk to it.

If such changes do not take place, the LTTE states that the government will have to bear the responsibility of creating an independent Tamil state. Since the international community had now pushed the government to grab this opportunity, it has to be understood that they are not considering the LTTE as a terrorist organisation.

Though Prabhakaran’s speech has a fascist flavour it may be wise now for the government to take an objective look at this offer, since the expenditure incurred on the war is causing an irreparable dent in the county’s economy, and making the lives of the people miserable day by day.

Ashraff factor and SLMC’s decision

The government has now decided to hold the elections for the north west- ern provincial council. The elections are likely to be held on January 28. The ruling PA has nominated deputy minister S.B. Navinna as its chief ministerial candidate while the UNP is fielding the formidable Gamini Jayawickrema Perera who held this post earlier.

Mr. Jayawickrema Perera was also a cabinet minister in the D. B. Wijetunga government. On the day of nominations, the UNP was faced with the problem as to whom it should field as its chief ministerial candidate because Nimal Bandara the immediate past chief minister stood his ground.

The UNP hierarchy felt that Mr. Jayawickrema Perera was a more suitable candidate than Mr. Bandara. They found that Mr. Jayawickrema Perera could take a challenge thrown by the PA and had decided to include three more formidable candidates in its team including Asoka Wadigamangawa and Nimal Bandara.

Sarath Welagedera who was once the UNP member of parliament declined an offer to contest.

When the dispute of the chief ministerial candidacy arose, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, assisted by general secretary Gamini Atukorale and the working committee member Rohitha Bogollagama resolved the problem after having a dialogue with Mr. Bandara. They told him that party interest should come first and eventually Mr. Bandara agreed to contest under Mr. Jayawickrema Perera.

In the meantime, the PA has allocated each electorate in the north western province to a cabinet minister to launch a vigorous campaign for the provincial election.

Some ministers said that Mr. Jayawickreme Perera would face a tough time from the PA since they felt that the UNP was responsible for many disappearances in the north-western province. The number disappeared from the Kurunegala district alone topped thousands, one minister told this column.

It is likely that the government would take some steps against Mr. Jayawickrema Perera and some of the UNPers in the Kurunegala district for alleged land transaction and this would figure prominently in the election campaign for the north-western province.

However, a section of the PA believes that the nomination of Mr. Jayawickrema Perera as a chief ministerial candidate for the NWP election is a hoax. They believe that the UNP is trying a ruse to trap the government on their plans and to see as to how they would react to their decision.

In an interview with our sister newspaper Sunday Lankadeepa, Mr. Jayawickrema Perera, however, dismissed speculation. He says he has come forward at the request made by the UNP leadership and he will contest the election.

Meanwhile, the PA is studying how the electors in the north western province would react at the next election. A junior minister of the area, however, has said it would be difficult for the PA to win this election.

The PA’s election strategy was also discussed at the central committee meeting last week in the parliamentary complex. The meeting went on till about 10.30 in the night where the President spelt out as to what action should be taken in view of the forthcoming elections to the NWP.

They discussed at length their election strategies and the UNP’s moves to grab the provincial council. Some observers have warned of possible dangers during the election because most of the unlicensed guns and weapons are in the NWP.

The PA is planning a vigorous campaign in the NWP against the UNP by bringing to light various incidents that took place during the UNP regime. Accordingly it will publish three booklets on the (1) Batalanda commission, (2) Land grab by the UNP and its cronies, (3) Lalith Athulathmudali’s assassination to hit at the DUNF (Lalith Front) which has decided to go along with the UNP.

At the central committee meeting of the PA, two ministers were involved in a heated argument over certain activities and actions of Minister M H. M. Ashraff.

Minister A. H. M. Fowzie raised the issue and said Mr. Ashraff was spreading his tentacles all over and doing things in other ministries under the name of rehabilitation. He also accused Minister Alavi Moulana of collaborating with Mr. Ashraff.

This remark sparked off a heated argument between Mr. Fowzie and Mr. Moulana.

Mr. Moulana defended himself while accusing Minister Fowzie of inaction. The President then said that if Mr. Ashraff was not wanted here, Mr. Fowzie should be able to get votes for the SLFP and blamed the SLFP’s Muslim wing for its lethargy. The President pointed out that the Muslim organisation of the SLFP has not worked towards achieving its goal, hence Mr. Ashraff’s contribution was important.

At this stage, deputy minister Vishwa Warnapala charged that the committee on public enterprises had received many complaints against some institutions under the Ports Ministry. Mr. Ashraff’s role in the PA was discussed at length, but it appeared that the PA could not forge ahead without the SLMC.

Expressing his views after the central committee meeting, Mr. Fowzie told friends that the President took up the position that the SLMC should not go alone while being a part of the PA.

But the SLMC is yet to decide. The SLMC hierarchy on Wednesday night discussed this matter at length. They could not arrive at a decision till 4 o’ clock on Thursday morning. They met on Thursday evening.

The basic problem with the the SLMC appears to be Mr. Fowzie who is making it difficult for the SLMC to be a part of the PA. This was taken up by Mr. Ashraff when the PA executive committee met last week to discuss matters pertaining the NWP elections.

According to reports, there had been lengthy deliberation on the SLMC’s position where Minister Ashraff told the PA executive committee that some ministers in the PA appeared to have forgotten the SLMC’s support to the government. They were not taking serious note of the SLMC’s contribution, Mr. Ashraff complained.

The present problem also stems from the SLFP’s central committee meeting where Mr. Fowzie accused Mr. Moulana of backing SLMC activities. Mr. Fowzie was critical of Mr. Ashraff and even had to argue with the President on Mr. Ashraff being nominated to the delegation to liaise with the business community.

It appears that Mr. Fowzie has taken it up personally with the President.

But in the President’s view the constitution of this delegation was quite different from what Mr. Fowzie thinks. She wanted a broader spectrum to be represented. While the SLFP hierarchy locked itself up in debate on the role of Mr. Ashraff, the SLMC high command considered the merits and demerits of going along with the PA.

They gave much more thought than anything else to the President’s personal appeal, where the SLMC leader was called upon to contest with the PA.

The SLMC hierarchy having deliberated for a long time referred the matter to a smaller committee to take a decision after consulting relevant people.

It is likely now that the SLMC will go along with the government. It is difficult at this juncture for the party to leave the PA since in the SLMC’s view it is the only party committed to resolve the ethnic crisis. In SLMC’s view going alone means that it would be unnecessarily strengthening the UNP when the UNP had not done anything per se to solve the ethnic crisis.

Helping the UNP at this particular time when the UNP is being viewed as a credible alternative to the PA is futile, SLMC sources said. Though the SLMC is at a disadvantage when contesting along with the PA under the PR system, it is much more committed to keep the PA together under the leadership of President Kumaratunga. Hence it is likely that it will go along with the government at the north western provincial elections come what may.

Situation Report

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