Commentary

7th February 1999

Focal point of problems

By Mervyn de Silva

True. It was Tito's Yugo slavia that hosted the inaugural Non-aligned Summit in Belgrade. The participants were mainly leaders of newly independent countries from three continents - Asia, Africa and Latin America. Fidel Castro of Cuba was far-sighted enough to join the movement. He had to defend his country from the hostile colossus next door.

While many Liberation movements were present, Sri Lanka's contribution was quite unique-the world's first woman Prime Minister, Mrs. Sirima Bandaranaike, representing a cause, women's liberation, a movement that would quite quickly claim a global reach.

Non-alignment was Jawaharalal Nehru's idea but the leader of the largest democracy was astute enough to realise that the newly won freedom could be threatened by a new force, a new undeclared war,..... what Walter Lippman, the distinguished American journalist, called the Cold War. Students of the movement may be interested that another American had also used the term "Cold War" - Robert Strauz-Hupe, an American academic, later posted to Colombo as ambassador.

As western leaders attempt to forge the New World Order, trans-national Islam may increasingly come to be regarded as the new global monolithic enemy of the West.

To some Americans, searching for a new enemy against whom to test our mettle after the death of communism. Islam is the preferred antagonist. But to declare a second Cold War that is unlikely to end in the same resounding victory as the first' "writes Prof. John L. Esposito, Editor-in-Chief of Oxford's Encyclopedia of the Modern Islamic world. While he recognises Pakistan to Morocco as the heartland he regards the battleground as Kashmir to Azerbaijan, from Israel and the West Bank to "Kosovo in Yugoslavia".

The UN or no UN, the US calls the shots. And the No.1 priority was an investigation of the massacre of 45 ethnic Albanians. This brought a tough reply from the Clinton administration. A delegation led by the American members of the military mission threatened Belgrade with air strikes.

"It is a turning point. That blunt message was given to Slobodan Milosevic himself, a spokesman for General by a Wesley Clark, Commander of Allied Forces, in Europe and by General Klaumann, Chairman of NATO's military committee ....a clear signal that the generals were taking over from the diplomats. Students of conflict and conflict resolution, a growth industry, should note that the military takes the critical decisions as long as the ''enemy'' has guns and use the weapons. And separatist rebels rely heavily on the diaspora.

In short the Serb political leadership has not been browbeaten. Their advantage, says the veteran Western war correspondent, is money and arms from the diaspora. If the borders are open or not strictly watched, the separatist leadership sees no reason to go to the conference table or even talk to mediators. Sometimes, the guerrilla commanders do name ''representatives'' or "spokesmen" who go through the motions of negotiation.

That's good for "the image" a crucial factor in the jaw-jaw-war-war strategy.

Yugoslavia's history, like its foreign policy (non-alignment) was Marshal Tito's principal teacher. Well, if its going to be war-war long before jaw-jaw NATO is likely to escalate. It will be a sad day - not only to the people caught in the war but also those who remember a brave people who defended their country but joined the ''Third World" in designing a foreign policy to meet the dangers of the Cold War.

Hulftsdorp Hill

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