Can Jayalalitha topple the allies?

By Vaijayanthi Prakash  Our Correspondent in New Delhi

New Delhi: It is clear from the most recent statement of the Tamil Nadu leader , Ms. J. Jayalalitha, that the controversy over the Indian Defence Minister, George Fernandes, could well snowball to split the ruling coalition, trigger a major confrontation between the opposition and the BJP government, and finally lead to the latter's fall in the not too distant future.

Within hours of making a conciliatory statement after a one to one meeting with Prime Minister Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee in New Delhi on Wednesday, Ms. Jayalalitha let it be known that her AIADMK party with 18 MPs in parliament could withdraw support to the BJP government within an hour's notice and that it could explore alternative tie ups with an hour's notice and that it could explore alternative tie ups with tested friends who could be allies.

The reference was obviously to Ms. Sonia Gandhi whose dalliance with the iron lady from Tamil Nadu is sending tremors through the corridors of power in New Delhi.

A statement by the AIADMK president , V.R Nedunchezhian, said that the Prime Minister "need only tell us, and in one hour we will be in Rashtrapathi Bhawan informing the President that we are no longer supporting a government that does not want us to stay in it."

As if this was not enough, M. Thambidorai; an AIADMK leader and Law Minister in the Vajpayee government, issued a statement to say that the AIADMK had not been keen on joining the BJP government when it was formed a year ago, but it was forced to do so by the BJP which wanted to be in power any how.

Many observers consider Ms. Jayalalitha's demand for the ouster of Mr. Fernandes from the Defence Ministry as being motivated by a desire to get the key portfolio for her own party, which, while being the single largest ally of the BJP, has not been given any key portfolio.

While this may be true to an extent, the issues she has raised are grave and have a momentum of their own. They could well topple the government as they touch the Congress party, the largest opposition party, and its supremo, Ms. Sonia Gandhi, deeply.

In a frontal attack at a meeting of the coordination committee of the ruling coalition, Ms. Jayalalitha demanded that Mr. Fernandes be shifted to a "less sensitive" ministry as he was a "national security risk".

She pointed out that his links with the LTTE, a banned organisation in India, could demoralise the security forces who might be called upon to check the activities of the terrorist group.

By summarily sacking navy Chief, Adm. Vishnu Bhagwat, Mr. Fernandes had demoralised the forces, she asserted. Ms. Jayalalitha referred to the charges of corruption made against Mr. Fernandes by Adm. Bhagwat, and called for a Joint Parliamentary Committee to go into the veracity of the charges. She wanted the admiral to be reinstated forthwith. According to Dr. Subramanian Swamy, the Janatha Party leader and Ms. Jayalalitha's closest ally, Mr. Fernandes had confessed in an interview to the Calcutta daily "The Telegraph" that till he became minister, he was a patron of a committee formed to collect money for the defence of LTTEs in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.

Earlier, defying a government ban, he had hosted a conference of LTTE supporters on the lawns of his official bungalow.

He further said that his Defence Minister, Mr. Fernandes had brushed aside intelligence reports and ordered that the LTTE arms ship, M.V. Mariamma, be let off the hook as it was not on any hostile mission. In the event, when the orders to board and seize it was belatedly issued, the LTTErs scuttled the ship and escaped under cover of darkness." The arms has either been unloaded under cover of darkness." The arms had either been unloaded elsewhere of were dumped into the sea", Dr. Swamy said.

From the Green Corner

You know what's in store for you, don't you?

By Viruddha Paakshkaya

As I write this column in the midst of campaigning for the Provincial Council election, I find the charges leveled by my unseen friend, Paakshikaya last week, rather amusing.

Paakshikaya, like so many of his partymen, hails the President as a saviour of democracy and says just because she set up a Election Monitoring Committee, all is well with democracy in Sri Lanka!

We in the UNP, Paakshikaya, have a different opinion. Yes, we agree that a high-powered committee to monitor the Provincial Council Elections was a good idea. That is why our leader Ranil Wickremesinghe decided, like a true statesman, to attend the sittings of the committee even though the invitation letter from your leader was full of accusations and innuendoes.

Now however we seriously doubt whether the committee will serve any purpose other than meeting at Temple Trees every now and then and smiling in front of the TV cameras and a few selected press photographers!

As one of our delegates who attended the meetings of this committee told me the other day, this much publicised "Committee for the Monitoring of Elections" is also turning out to be like a morning visit to the toilet, as described by your erstwhile colleague, Pieter Keuneman-first there is a sitting, then there is a little noise, then there is a report and finally you drop the matter!

Why we say so is, because this committee has become just another talk-shop where your President indulges in her favourite pastime -bashing-verbally of course- her political opponents. Why, last week she even accused the JVP of murdering her husband the late Vijaya Kumaratunga!

That led our leader to comment wryly that all this while the culprit was our late leader, former President R.Prema-dasa. So, Paakshikaya beware, your leader might be hauled before the now famous Commission investigating the Vijaya Kumaratunga assassination for contempt of the commission's erudite findings!

But, my point is that the Committee for Monitoring Elections serves no purpose. We in the UNP say so because whenever we proposed a constructive idea it has been blocked saying such changes cannot be made in an ad hoc manner.

When we wanted more powers given to the Commissioner of Elections it was shelved saying there was no time- despite the UNP's promise to support such amendments in Parliament- to effect those changes. When we suggested measures to ensure that Police acted impartially, that too was not taken seriously.

So, what has this Committee of yours done to ensure a free and fair election Paakshikaya? Almost nothing. The only purpose it will serve is to try and legitimise the outcome of the election, which is likely to be as corrupt as the elections at Wayamba.

Already, Paakshikaya, we are receiving complaints that organised groups are visiting villages in certain districts and threatening voters that they should not exercise their democratic rights on April 6. These reports are widespread and from many parts of the country and therefore we have legitimate fears about the upcoming election too.

But that does not mean that we are not prepared, Paakshikaya. We know that given a free and fair poll we could win all five provinces because the people are alive to the dirty tactics your party adopted at Wayamba and are eagerly awaiting an opportunity to give a reply to those events.

We know that the Western and Central Provinces are likely to be walkover wins for the UNP simply because these regions have a reasonable segment of urban votes where thuggery, intimidation, violence and rigging is that much more difficult to orchestrate.

I am not afraid to make this prediction, Paakshikaya. I will even go one step further and make another prediction- Karu Jayasuriya will win the highest number of preference votes in the entire country. Your party is also aware of that reality which is why you are trying to project the idea that Karu is a threat to our leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. Don't worry, Paakshikaya, both you and I know there is no such threat or rift between the two and such tactics will not help you in any way.

In the Western Province, I will make bold to predict that even the votes you receive from your traditional stronghold -the "Bandaranaike belt" in the Gampaha district will be eroded severely this time around. That is because some voters in the Bandaranaike belt are on our side now thanks to Anura Bandaranaike and also because others are genuinely disgusted with the way your government is handling the country's affairs.

Add to this the fact that your party has antagonised most Catholic voters in the coastal areas with your original decision to hold polls a day before Good Friday and you really must prepare yourself for disaster in the Western Province, Paakshikaya!

In the Central Province you have gone to the extent of obstructing our campaign by having our Parliamentarians and candidates remanded on frivolous charges after an incident sparked off by provocation by your supporters. But these intimidatory tactics have only given our campaign more strength and I can confidently predict that we will run out clear winners in the central hills.

As far as the other regions are concerned the North Central and Uva provinces are also likely to be easy victories for the UNP. The fact that you are running scared in these provinces is underscored by the various stories you are planting in the state controlled press alleging divisions in the UNP in these provinces which are of course, concoctions of your fertile imagination.

Let's face it, Paakshikaya even your party stalwarts know what is in store for you which is why even now, before a single vote has been cast you are making feeble attempts to cover your impending defeat. And that is why the state-controlled press is already disputing the figures of election offences quoted by the Committee for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV). The next thing we know either your President or your irrepressible Media Minister will accuse the CMEV of being funded by the UNP!

There is also another issue where you and your party leadership have made a fatal error Paakshikaya and I wonder whether you have even realised it. That is where President Chandrika Kumaratunga has taken the plunge and called the Free Media Movement a virtual cat's paw of the UNP. When I first saw these remarks in print I thought your "astute politician"-as you like to call her, Paakshikaya- was being misquoted. But now I find that she has repeated the same charges again at a meeting in Kandy.

I know that especially in Sri Lankan politics memories are short and that could account for the fact that Chandrika Kumaratunga has forgotten the role played by the free media in her dramatic ascent to power in 1994. To put it in pithy Sinhalese, my friend, I may well call it "mula amathaka wenawaa".

The fact is- which we learnt the hard way- the free media is merely doing it's job, as it did in 1994, by calling a bad government bad, instead of pandering to the whims and fancies of its leaders.

To construe it otherwise and accuse the free media of being hand in glove with the UNP is cutting the nose to spite the face, Paakshikaya. Surely your "astute leader" should know that the very people who were the darlings of the PA when they launched the free media campaign in 1994 are very much in the forefront of the movement even today!

Then, Paakshikaya, before I conclude I think I must also mention another issue which you have pooh-poohed in your column last week-the issue of the Cricket Board elections.

When I first raised the Cricket Board issue, the point I was trying to make was that your government was so badly split on this matter- as they are on various other issues- that ministers were openly canvassing against the President's favorite uncle who also lives at Temple Trees.

You took the moral high ground saying the election was not a political issue and that uncles and ministers had the freedom to do what they wanted to do in their personal capacities. But we all know that certain ministers endorsed the candidacy of certain persons and we all saw video footage of provincial ministers directing operations at the Board headquarters on election day.

Today I cannot resist asking Paakshikaya, after what happened last Sunday; can he now speak with the same moral authority?

What happened last week at the Cricket Board was an international disgrace, my friend. It took away the recognition and the prestige Sri Lanka earned after winning the World Cup in 1996. And to say this election and its related incidents were devoid of any political connections is to be blind, because you do not wish to see the truth.

I'll just say this, Paakshikaya. I whole-heartedly agree with your President when she says her government has achieved in four years what the UNP could not do in 17. Now your government has institutionalised rigging and intimidation at elections to such an extent that even the Cricket Board is not spared of such allegations now! So, my friend, how on earth can we expect fair polls from your administration?

But, I must also warn you, my friend. The public at large might grin and bear, when there are allegations of irregularities at Cricket Board elections. They were largely caught unawares when irregularities occurred at Wayamba because they initially thought yours was a sincere government.

But not anymore, Paakshikaya. The people now know the true calibre of their ruling party and are prepared for such eventualities. So, it is far better- for the survival of your government for the rest of its legitimate term of office- to allow a free and fair poll in the five provinces on Tuesday even if it means conceding power to the UNP.

That way, the people will respect you for allowing the will of the people and who knows you could even salvage some pride in the General and Presidential elections which are not due for over an year anyway.

To do otherwise, Paakshikaya is- in your own words as you wrote in these pages last week- to commit political 'hara-kiri'. You seemed to have realised that, but I am not sure whether your ministers and your rank and file will agree .

I will say no more, Paakshikaya other than to remind you of the immortal words of Lincoln on the eve of what would be a historic turnaround for the UNP- "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time but you cannot fool all the people all the time". So, come Tuesday; don't even try it, my friend!

From the Blue Corner

It will be the known devil not the unknown angel

By Paakshikaya

It is not my turn to pen these words in the pages of Sunday Times this week- I did so only last week- but I think I must heed the request of the editor who informs me that this being pre-election weekend, I will be accorded space out-of-turn so that my unseen friend, Virudhdha Paakshikaya doesn't gain any undue advantage in influencing voters.

But I must also emphatically state I did tell the editor that had Virudhdha Paakshikaya been the only contributor this weekend, there would still be no harm done- the Peoples' Alliance would still emerge as victors at the polls without a shadow of doubt and with a clear majority. When I say so, I can almost hear my unseen friend retorting. "Ah, another Wayamba it will be!" but I must assure him, along with the thousands of other readers of The Sunday Times, that such a situation would not arise on Tuesday.

I am sure even grudgingly Viruddha Paakshikaya will concede I was one of the few people within the government party- the SLFP, I must hasten to add, not the PA- who strongly condemned what happened at Wayamba.

I did so for three reasons. First, despite being a politician it hurt my conscience to see democracy perverted in so blatant a manner. Second, I had the gut feeling that such deplorable methods were not necessary to secure a PA victory at Wayamba. And lastly, having been in politics for well over three decades I saw the disastrous consequences such action could bring at the next General or Presidential elections.

Now, Virudhdha Paakshikaya, I will let you in on a little secret. Having felt this way and having aired my views in these pages I also took the liberty of communicating my sentiments to the highest levels in government knowing that I can still count on some influence within the party's hierarchy. And, I was pleasantly surprised to find that the SLFP still being a party based on democratic values, I was not the only one to make similar observations. Some other senior cabinet ministers and the Prime Minister herself had cautioned the party's decision makers against continuing what was begun at Wayamba. And, needless to say, President Chandrika Kumaratunga categorically endorsed our ideas and pledged there would be no repeat of Wayamba, ever again, under her leadership and said in no uncertain terms that the elections to the five Provincial Councils on April 6, would be free and fair.

She even went to the extent of cautioning some of the younger members of our party who, she felt, may have overstepped their limits in their enthusiasm to further the PA's interests. And that was how the concept of having a multi-party committee to monitor the polls came into being. I will confess that some of us in the government were sceptical about the UNP's participation and were surprised- again pleasantly- when Ranil Wickremesinghe replied in the affirmative. They say, give the devil his due and I must admit at least on this occasion Ranil Wickremasinghe showed himself to be above petty politics.

Having come this far, Viruddha Paakshikaya, you would be justified in asking me how I could be so confident of victory in all five provinces, given our pledge of holding a free election. I have an answer to that, my friend and I shall now proceed to explain why the PA will win-on a province by province basis. To start with the Western Province, the last local government elections show that save for the Colombo Municipality area, the province is firmly in the hands of the PA. And, however large the support for the UNP is in Colombo that will not offset the gains the PA has made in other areas. True, Karu Jayasuriya is a formidable opponent but what most people seem to forget is that outside of the Colombo district, he is not a household name. Remember, Viruddha Paakshikaya, the Chief Minister is chosen not for the Colombo District but for the entire Western Province and Karu will be hard pressed to garner support from the traditionally SLFP areas in Gampaha as well from the interior regions of the Kalutara district. And even in the Colombo district, the UNP will be hard pressed to compete with the PA's gains in Kotte which will erode the UNP majority, if any, in Colombo city. In the Gampaha district of course, the PA has a solid SLFP block vote. Remember, Viruddha Paakshikaya, that President Chandrika Kumaratunga polled a record number of preferences when she contested from Gampaha at the last Western Provincial council polls. With their favourite daughter as the President of the country and with the special emphasis on the development of the Siyane Korale none of those votes will turn green, I assure you.

Then there is the Central Province where the UNP has virtually snatched defeat from the jaws of victory- the type of political suicide that would never have happened had R.Premadasa, or even Gamini Dissanayake or Lalith Athulathmudali been at the helm. To start with your party antagonized Saumyamoorthy Thondaman by blocking his Ministry votes in Parliament. What happened eventually was that Thondaman got his allocation through a supplementary estimate but you lost his vital support. Then your MPs and some of your candidates resorted to thuggery against our supporters resulting in their being remanded during the campaign. And, what's more,instead of having a team leader your former Chief Minister W.M.P.B.Dissanayake and Keheliya Rambukwella are fighting with each other-and not with us- for the Chief Minister's post.

So, need I say any more about the UNP's chances in the Central Province, Viruddha Paakshikaya? The Sabaragamuwa Province is of course a goner as far as the UNP is concerned for the region has been one of our strongholds in recent times. But whatever chances you had of gaining at least a few votes in that region evaporated with the assassination of our young and popular MP Nalanda Ellawela. The case is being heard these days and emotions still run high at the mention of Nalanda's name-or Punchinilame's name for that matter- so you need not bother at all about Sabaragamuwa, my friend. In the North Central Province, the PA will win but for different reasons. Two UNP stalwarts of the region, former Minister Chandra Bandara and former Chief Minister G.D. Mahindasoma have passed away and the succession battle is still on, we hear, between ex-Minister A.M.S.Adhikari and Ex-Chief Minister Jayasena Dissa-nayake. If I may say so, Viruddha Paakshikaya,this is where your leadership has failed miserably- you have not identified a clear leader for many regions resulting in severe infighting within the party that leaves it with no time,resources or energy to fight its real opponents! Lastly, there is the large Uva province where I admit the UNP did have a chance.

But with the demise of former Chief Minister Percy Samaraweera at a crucial stage of the campaign the UNP lost its momentum. Add to this the fact that our Chief Ministerial candidate in Uva Samarawera Weerawanni has the advantage of being an ex-UNPer who left the party on principle and I am sure that province too will vote in our favour. Now, Virudhdha Paakshikaya, you will agree that these elections will give the UNP a rude shock. I am familiar now with your rhetoric-the PA's election promises have not been kept, the Executive Presidency has not been abolished and the war in the North and East is not over. So, you ask the voters, why should they vote for the PA again, after four years.

That, I agree Viruddha Paakshikaya is a reasonable question. But unfortunately it has a reasonable answer. And that answer is that while the PA may not have kept all of its promises, the people can expect even less from the UNP, a party in such disarray that it cannot identify and appoint organisers to head its provincial council candidates' lists! No government is perfect, Viruddha Paakshikaya and you have to credit our voters with realising that. Therefore, they have the choice of electing a party that runs the country and has capable regional leaders who have held Cabinet posts. Or else, they could elect a party in the opposition, a party that has acquired a reputation for lethargy and a party with a dubious past record of terror and corruption.

In this situation, Viruddha Paakshikaya you too know what the choice of most voters would be. There is of course a block of PA votes and a block of UNP votes-about 30% of the electorate for each party- that will never change but the others do change their preferences in a significant manner. Unfortunately for the UNP, Viruddha Paakshikaya that preference will not have changed much from the last local government elections to now, even though my friends in the political circuit tell me the JVP too will gain a little over 5% of the total vote at this election.

That then is my prediction for Tuesday, my friend and I am confident nothing will happen between now and Tuesday to tilt the balance any other way.

I know, the UNP has attempted to portray our government as the Devil itself, while proclaiming themselves to be the angels of democracy but on Tuesday you will realize that the people of this country still prefer the known devil to the unknown angel at least for now, Viruddha Paakshikaya!

More News/Comments

Return to News/Comment Contents