Religious delegation to brief President on visit to North

By Shelani de Silva

Buddhist prelates who made a historic Vesak pilgrimage to displaced people in the uncleared areas of the Wanni are to meet President Kumaratunga again soon to obtain more health care and other facilities for tens of thousands of refugees.

Head of the delegation Ven. Kamburugamuwe Vajira Nayake Thera who headed the delegation of some 200 Buddhist monks along with prelates from other religions told The Sunday Times said their main priority was to provide health care to thousands of abandoned refugees while the question of any peace talks with the LTTE would be taken up only after that.

The Ven. Vajira who heads the religious alliance for peace said they had identified about 100 refugee patients who needed immediate surgical operations and arrangements were being made to take them to the Vavuniya and Mannar hospitals.

He said arrangements would be made for other patients later.

The Ven Vajira Nayake Thera, former vice chancellor of the Buddhist University, said the President was ready to make all arrangements to transport the patients to Colombo. But they felt it would be better for the patients to be taken to Vavuniya or Mannar. Detailed arrangements were being worked out with the Health Ministry.

He said facilities in the two provincial hospitals were poor but they would make arrangements to take medical equipment and drugs from Colombo to meet the needs of the patients. The delegation was due to visit the North again this month but the prelate ruled out any immediate approach to the LTTE. We want to first provide the people with what they need, and then think of having talks with the LTTE. We want to win the confidence of the people and thus create a healthier environment for peace talks," he said.

No new party, only new plan says Cooray

By Roshan Peiris

In the wake of yet another defeat for the UNP in the south, speculation is rising that former general secretary Sirisena Cooray is now ready to go ahead with plans to form a new political party.

But Mr. Cooray himself is still denying such speculation.

"I do not want by any means to form another party. All I want to do is to announce a new development plan for this country. This is imperative since both major parties, the UNP and the PA are just attacking each other, and not addressing their minds to the business of solving many of the burning issues confronting the country today," he told The Sunday Times.

Mr. Cooray declined to detail his so-called development plans but said he would outline it at a meeting on June 23 to mark the birthday of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa. Mr. Cooray is now regarded as a key figure in the Premadasa centre which had been sidelined or blacklisted by the UNP hierarchy.

"My new plan consists of development for the benefit of the people in keeping with the late President's policy of being concerned always with the needs of the people.

"I will take the people into my confidence after the 23rd. hold a dialogue with them and discuss the pros and cons of this new plan of mine. I am making it clear that I have no desire to form another political party as some newspapers have mentioned", Mr. Cooray said.

Bold initiative

A prominent Buddhist monk in Dambulla has proposed a ban on tobacco cultivation in temple lands.

Venerable Sri Sumangala of the Dambulla Rock Temple in a statement has called for an outright ban of tobacco cultivation. The prelate says he is making the appeal with the intention of sustaining a well balanced environment and preventing degradation caused to the soil within the periphery of such land holdings. It is also his contention that such a measure would result in reducing the incidence of cigarette smoking in the country which is seen to be assuming alarming proportions.

He said he hopes to have the proposal enforced by Vesak, 2000. The Thera is of the opinion that other economically viable crops could be planted instead.

They all forgot the South

By Kumbakarna

Now that the Southern Provincial council elections are over, the government will once again turn its attention to the so-called ethnic question. It is planning to hold PC and local polls in the North/East by November. The heavily armed Tigers undergoing intensive training in the Wanni will, it is most likely, unleash a massive military attack to sabotage government plans.

During the last two decades, both the UNP and the SLFP pursued identical policies in relation to the LTTE. In 1987 the Indo-Lanka Accord, in 1989 the Premadasa-Prabhakaran talks and in 1994 the Kumaratunga-Tiger negotiations aimed at a direct solution with the Tigers. These talks underscored two points of view: talking to other Tamil organisations served no purpose; defeating or weakening the Tigers was impossible.

According to a second strategy limited operations were carried out against the Tigers, while attempts were made to reach agreement with other Tamil organisations. The result was a so-called political solution in the form of the District Development Councils and the Provincial Councils. This was based on the belief that whether the Tigers came into it or not, the aspirations of the Tamil people had to be fulfilled. The present offer of Regional Councils too is based on the same view, that the Tigers should be isolated.

Before 1987, India too thought on the lines of direct negotiations, but after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi they favoured the second alternative. While the government is pursuing one strategy through the foreign-funded NGOs, it is trying out another through Varatharaja Perumal and Douglas Devananda.

If the situation is favourable, the government intends to present a 'package' with which the UNP is likely to agree. Then if necessary establish an Interim Council in the North/East and go ahead with the Presidential election.

It is absolutely certain that not only the Tigers, but forces opposed to India's intervention in the region and pro-Tiger elements in Sri Lanka and India will sabotage this move. The Tigers will disrupt civilian life and launch a massive military operation. Pro-Tiger elements here will demand that negotiations be held with the Tigers and Tigers alone.

Whether the government talks to the Tigers or not, presents a 'Package' to Parliament or not, establishes an Interim Council for the North/East or not, its strategy is bound to fail. This has happened before. With failure, the war has escalated.

Why? Because governments have ignored the political opinions and aspirations of the people of the South in their attempts to solve the ethnic problem, somehow or other. The best example of this was the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987. The Indians brought Prabhakaran and other Tamil organizations into it; J.R. Jayewardene's powerful government had a five sixth majority in Parliament. The US endorsed it. But there was one factor which JR ignored. The missing link was the South.

In one night the South caught fire. The destruction of property by Tiger terrorism from 1972-1987 was exceeded on July 27, 28 and 29, 1987. This was followed by civil disturbances which swallowed up 72,000 lives. The national growth rate which had raced to 8.2 percent in 1978 and 5.3 percent in 1985 plunged drastically to 1.6 percent in 1987. Damage which the separatist war could not do since 1977 took place within one year. The instability into which Sri Lanka was plunged, corrected itself only by 1994.

The situation now is quite different to that which existed in 1987. The banned JVP found common ground with a weak SLFP in the Opposition, to oppose the Indo-Lanka Accord. Now, if the UNP and the SLFP co-operate it would seem like the endorsement of an amended 'package' by the whole of the Sinhala community. It would then mean that the Tigers are isolated.

But there are several holes in this argument. If the government conducts negotiations with the Tigers or adopts an amended 'package' there is bound to be strong opposition to it. Elections of the recent past show that there is a large group of people who reject both parties. Unlike in 1987, 1989 and 1994 any agreement will have to receive the approval of the people. From the protests of recent weeks it is evident that apart from the UNP, SLFP and the JVP, there has arisen a national movement which is making certain demands, and gathering momentum.

The Jathika Sangha Sabhawa, the Sinhala Veera Vidhana, the National Movement Against Terrorism and the National Joint Committee have the capability to mobilise the opposition of the nation to such moves. The Sinhalese will be able to have a direct impact on future elections.

What is likely to happen is that as in 1987, 1989 and 1994, the LTTE will do the maximum damage, and the peace enterprises of the UNP, SLFP, the Business community and the NGOs will have to be restarted all over again.

The situation will become even more complex then.

From the Green Corner

We will strike and strike to win

By: Virudda Paakshikaya

Listening to the state media gloat over the People's Alliance's "landslide" victory at the Southern Provincial Council polls which were concluded on Thursday I, cannot help but be amused!

There they are, screaming in banner headlines that the PA has "won". Their so-called 'charismatic' leader, Chandrika Kumaratunga has even issued a hurried congratulatory message to her cadres and thanked the people of the South for keeping faith in her.

And, all this after a 'victory' where the PA obtained a mere 45% of the vote and is without a majority to form a stable administration.

This mood of grandiose euphoria, it seemed was in the air for some time. And, that is why my unseen friend Paakshikaya ventured forth in these pages last week with a few predictions of his own.

The PA, Paakshikaya said last week, will 'win' all three districts in the province- Galle,Matara and Hambantota. Then, he went on to say the JVP, the PA's new found enemies would poll less than ten percent of the vote.

Need I say anymore, Paakshikaya? Whatever job it is that you are doing now, stick to it and do not venture into the realm of the unknown, for you will never make a decent living as a soothsayer!

Now, I am not one of those who believes in boasting about my prowess in political predictions, but contrast your predictions with what I wrote last Sunday:

"And the JVP has come of age politically whether we like it or not. Remember what happened in the five provinces which held polls recently, Paakshikaya? The PA obtained just over 40% of the vote even in areas, which it won. The difference between that and a 50% majority was the vote that went to the JVP. The UNP vote was stable at around 40%.

Now, in the south, Paakshikaya, the JVP percentage will be much higher. I'm sure the votes that they are taking are not ours- they are all anti-UNP votes that would have otherwise accrued to the PA. Therefore, while the UNP vote will still remain stable at around 40%, the PA vote will dip further."

What would you say about that prediction, Paakshikaya? Isn't that spot on target? You claimed the UNP would fare disastrously in the South because the region is home to thousands of families whom you thought lost near and dear ones in the recent insurrection.

But instead, the UNP has bounced back creditably and has retained that magical 40% slice of the electorate that is as stable as it ever was.

In contrast, what happened to the PA? Its steam-rolling 62% of the vote in 1994 has been whittled down to 45% and that too thanks to a lot of false promises and propaganda doled out liberally by the state media just before the polls.

The fact is, Paakshikaya, the PA is no longer a majority. It can only command 45% of the vote at its best which means that 55% of the electorate is against it. And that is not the sign of a stable government, especially when the JVP categorically says it will never enter into a pact with the PA- or even the UNP for that matter!

We in the UNP can quite stomach that, Paakshikaya. We have set up governments on our own and we have survived. Tell me, Paakshikaya, when did the SLFP, to which you so proudly belong, ever form a government of its own? Never, my friend, even if you go back to the days of your great founder-S. W. R. D. Bandaranaike.

SWRD had to rely on the likes of the Dahanayakes and Philip Gunawardenas; his wife Sirima Bandaranaike had to rely on the N. M. Pereras, Colvin R. de Silvas, Pieter Keunemans and Leslie Goonewardenes and now his daughter Chandrika has to rely on the Ashraffs, Batty Weerakoons, Thondamans and Devanandas.

And if I may venture a prediction, after next year's polls the day will dawn when Chandrika Kumaratunga will have to dance to the tunes of Tilvin Silva and that was the verdict delivered loud and clear last Thursday!

This truth may be unpalatable, Paakshikaya, especially when you and your leadership have only recently embarked on an onslaught against the JVP, accusing them of being ruthless murderers. But still in the game of politics, which makes strange bedfellows, you will have to play ball with the JVP, sooner rather than later.

The statistics tell the story, Paakshikaya. We of the UNP polled 39% of the vote. You polled over 44% of the vote. The difference between the two parties was a mere 59,000 votes. But, the number of spoilt votes exceeded that- over 61, 000 votes!

Now if I may make a safe assumption, those spoilt votes were not votes rejected because the voters were ignorant about voting. No, my friend, they were votes with which the people told both you in the government and us in the opposition that they were disgusted with what was happening on the either side of the political divide.

Now these are people who are unlikely to revert to the government. I will concede right now, they will not vote for the UNP. But given time, and given a chance for the UNP to get its act together and show the people that it means business, there is every possibility that those votes will revert to us, Paakshikaya.

And that is why we are happy with what happened at the elections on Thursday. It has taught the UNP a good lesson: it has told the UNP that its support base is still undisturbed but it has also told the party that more work needs to be done before we deserve to be elected to govern the country again.

We, as a democratic party welcome that opportunity. We must of course be thankful to Her Excellency Chandrika Kumaratunga for her infinite political wisdom in allowing us to test the political waters before the general and presidential elections in a region where we knew that the party organisation needed strengthening.

And believe me, Paakshikaya, We will heed those lessons. We will make the necessary changes so that the people will have confidence in us again. For we know that we have a few more miles to go to stretch that 40% to the required 50% margin- and we also know that we will be helped by the JVP who will steal valuable votes from the PA!

And when I pointed out the JVP factor to you in my arguments you dismissed that threat saying a similar fate will befall the UNP because of the breakaway faction of H.R.. Piyasiri! Well, we all now know who poses the greater threat- the JVP or H.R.Piyasiri's outfit!

But then, Paakshikaya that is the kind of absurd thinking that you are used to. That same line of absurd thinking has made you proclaim Thursday's verdict as a "landslide victory!" I'm not unhappy about that, my friend. We in the UNP would like you to live in your cocoons of complacency so that when the time comes in August next year- or even before that- we can strike, and strike to win!

After all, my friend, none are so blind as those who do not wish to see, aren't they?

But we will continue to need him!

Last Sunday morning a lady of more than passing acquaintance waved a copy of the Sports section of The Sunday Times in my face. As Arjuna Ranatunga hands over face moved rapidly hither and thither in my field of vision. I heard words to the effect that "Haven't they beaten the poor man enough? They will force him to resign." My mild rejoinder that perhaps Arjuna should be thinking on those lines met with noise that can only be phonetically expressed as "Hmmmph!" and a door closed with some resonance.

After the initial shock waves subsided as they are wont to do on such occasions, I gave myself a few minutes of quiet contemplation, as I am wont to do on such occasions.

At the end of those minutes of sober thought, I came to the conclusion, that she has a point. This too I am wont to do (on such occasions).

Arjuna Ranatunga may well reflect that the media, like the poor, is either at one's feet or at one's throat. Given the arrogance with which the Ranatunga family has dispensed with the media, perhaps the media could be forgiven. But the media has a wider responsibility or it could well mislead Sri Lanka's captain into a delusion that the anger and frustrations of Sri Lanka's cricket loving public at this point of time is only media made for purposes of its personal petulance.

It is more important that the media presents some constructive opinions to widen the perceptions of people from their current simple rage. Should we not dwell on what conditions prevailed under Gamini Dissanayake's stewardship to move us onto cricket's centre stage.

Finally, pity the poor captain of Sri Lanka's cricket team. He must contend with every cricket watcher, who individually knows exactly what stroke should be played, what ball should be bowled, and how each match could have been won. We have a huge investment riding on Arjuna's shoulders.

He is the repository of an enormous experience, both in victory and defeat. We may not need the unhealthy dominance of his family members in our cricket, but we will continue to need him for a long time to come. A suitable humble and chastened Arjuna one hopes rather on the lines of that contributed but unsigned note (alas, there lies the rub) his team mates passed around. It is time to spike the guns. The man put an undistinguished nation on the world map, for God's sake.

- H.H.

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