Political Column

It was in the wee hours of Thursday morning when President Mahinda Rajapaksa returned from attending the SAARC summit to Colombo in Mihin Lanka Airway's Airbus A 330. Somewhat tired, he retired to bed. The early riser who is so conscious about his morning walk, slept it out till late.

When he woke up to greet those near and dear, he was highly upbeat. If the attack on the Air Force base at Katunayake worried him when he departed to New Delhi for the summit, this time round he was buoyant. He said he was so pleased the way Indian authorities extended a warm welcome and the great hospitality extended. It was so different from his first official visit after being elected President, and the second visit last December. Even if some opposition politicians were to remark all that was to balance the criticism against India for providing 2 D radars with the Air Defence system, Rajapaksa dismissed it.

Premier Manmohan Singh, during his one-on-one talks had been quite understanding and appreciative of the situation in Sri Lanka. He had offered stepped up support to the Government. So did the other SAARC leaders with whom he had bi-lateral talks. There was not only warm and greater cordiality, but also assurances of support and co-operation.

Later that Thursday, he sat down with close associates to discuss what he thought was an important issue - reports he had obtained of attempts to topple the Government. Gampaha district parliamentarian Edward Gunasekera's return to the United National Party (UNP) fold during the President's absence from the country was to add to that concern. He discussed the issue with his Senior Advisor, brotherBasil Rajapaksa and his Secretary Lalith Weeratunga among others.

Of immediate concern were reports that the leader of the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) had been having discussions with UNP's shadow Foreign Minister, Ravi Karunanayake. The two classmates at Royal College had met at the latter's residence for dinner. The subject of discussion has been the state of affairs in the country. Thondaman was directing question after question at Karunanayake in what some believed were to examine the prospects of a switch over. But CWC sources denied the move and said their leader was only "testing the waters" though he had made clear all along that he would contest an election under the UNP ticket.

Thondaman asked Karunanayake "Ravi, where does the JVP really stand on all these issues. What is your thinking?" The reply was somewhat revealing. He said that a media personality, as well as a confidant of former Foreign Minister, Mangala Samaraweera, Ruwan Ferdinandez, were both on the job to convince the JVP. He said if not the entire JVP, at least the support of a part of them would be forthcoming.

President Rajapaksa had also heard that a Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) Cabinet Minister had met some UNPers at the residence of the brother of a green leader. His identity, however, was not known and the intelligence agencies were asked to ascertain it. Added to that, were claims by a Tamil parliamentarian now with the Government that a business concern had offered him a large sum of money. Half the payment was to be made immediately and the balance in installments thereafter. This was if he quit the Government. The Government was even told of a foreign bank from which the funds were to be paid to him. The money, it was claimed, was in a dollar account. The amount held was US $ 3 million.

Such efforts, Government leaders felt, were the reasons why a UNP parliamentarian told a public rally in Grandpass (which even returnee Gunasekera attended) that there would be a change of Government after the Avurudhu. What was not known is the fact that Opposition and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe had admonished the parliamentarian in question for making that speech.

Rajapaksa was to later meet the UNP "reformists" or dissidents to assure them that if there were any grievance, he would sort them out. He did not want more returnees. There were in fact reports that at least two to three more were wanting to get back since they were not happy the way they were being treated.

Quite clearly the Government was watching the Opposition, both the UNP and even the JVP. They were to literally hold a microscope to examine the remarks made by JVP firebrand Wimal Weerawansa. The JVP parliamentary group leader said that whether good or bad, UNP leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe stuck to one policy. That was not the case with the Government leaders. They did not have a policy at all. Various leaders say various things at various times, he had said. The remarks were to see Wickremesinghe in a jubilant mood. He was standing in the lobby when Weerawansa walked out. "Wimal, Oya kiyapu dey mama agaya karanawa," said Ranil. In other words he remarked that "I value your remarks". Wimal was to reply that if it suited him (Wickremesinghe), he was welcome to take the compliment.

Later on, Wickremesinghe walked towards a group of JVPers which included Weerawansa who were chatting in the lobby. He asked them whether they were aware of the worrying security situation in the country. He said he feared there would be air attacks in Jaffna. He said it could be on April 13 or 14. Weerawansa asked whether there was going to be an attack which the Security Forces will not be able to meet? The conversation did not last long, but Wickremesinghe seemed to be breaking the ice with his arch political critics.

Another significant event this week was a meeting between United States Ambassador Robert Blake and JVP leader, Somawansa Amerasinghe. Blake was accompanied by the Embassy's political officer, Prasad Gajaweera. It was Amerasinghe who raised the question of the recently signed Cross Servicing (ACSA) agreement between the US and Sri Lanka. Blake declared that the agreement would not lead to US opening up any bases in Sri Lanka. However, Amerasinghe was to say that the JVP would not be satisfied with the assurances until the document is tabled in Parliament.

He said the JVP will campaign for the document to be made public particularly in the light of claims that there was nothing controversial. There was also a divergence of views on a solution to the ethnic conflict. Though Blake declared that a solution does not lay on a military course of action, Amerasinghe insisted that the LTTE had to be weakened or defeated. The exchange at the JVP office in Kotte lasted nearly 90 minutes.

The return of the prodigal, Edward Gunasekera back into the UNP fold was probably the more dramatic of moments in Parliament this week. Gunasekera, one of the MPs who only in February crossed over from the UNP to the Rajapaksa Government along with 17 others was made Non-Cabinet Minister for Railways.

Gunasekera had been uncomfortable for some time since his cross-over. Last week, when the UNP Parliamentary Group voted to seek a Select Committee to probe the now controversial COPE report, he had been fidgeting all along, and slipped away when the issue was put to vote. The cross-overs, of whom two are earmarked for investigation for their part as UNP Ministers in two privatization sales - Sri Lanka Insurance and Lanka Marine Services, and one of them whose family firm owes the Central Bank Rs. 5 Billion, were eventually outvoted by the Party's mainstream MPs.

Smarting from a humiliating public rally they held in Borella recently where only some 200 supporters turned up to hear the 18 MPs, they were now tasting their own medicine. Defections. Unable to condemn Gunasekera's surprise move, the cross-overs released a public statement saying they respected the MP's right to cross the floor of the House. What else could they say?

Once considered a major event in Parliament, criss-crossing the floor was becoming everyday occurances nowadays. Still, Gunasekera's back-flip created an uproar in the House, and he was not permitted to make a personal statement; the Government benches objecting to the fact that he had no seat to make a statement from. So it was, musical chairs time once again in Parliament, with MPs being the latest IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) in the country, every time there's a cross-over.

The UNP was itself upbeat this week with the cross-over, and promising more to come, that they almost got carried away. Their MPs, especially Lakshman Kiriella, a cross-over himself, was pounding away at the Government for its failure to prevent a Tiger air attack at the SLAF base at Katunayake. Outside Parliament, the Party held a public rally at Colombo Central, their stronghold in the city. Galle District MP Vajira Abeygunawardene said that the UNP would be in Government in April. It was already April, but he probably meant after the National New Year.

This April date for a change of Government began some months ago, when a certain lady who spends most of her time now in London visited her pocket-borough of Attanagalle and said that things will change in April, due to astrological predictions. Her erstwhile right-hand man of yesteryear, now in the UNP also so predicted, with a twist in the tale, that it is not her, but the UNP that would be in office - in April.

UNP Leader Wickremesinghe was not amused by all this theatrics, and is likely to caution his Partymen from making such sweeping statements. The UNP is a far cry from walking back into the corridors of power. The SLAF base may get attacked, abductions may be on the rise, keeping pace with the rising cost of living, but the Rajapaksa Presidency is still firmly entrenched, especially in rural Sri Lanka.

The MiG scandal that the ex-SLFP duo Mangala Samaraweera and Sripathy Sooriyarachchi have tried to expose has gained some currency, but not in the hinterland where mind-boggling figures and technicalities are lost on the ordinary folk. They only want to know whether the LTTE is getting bashed up, and that seems to be the message that they are receiving. In another salvo, Sooriyarachchi gave Parliament an exact figure the Government paid the LTTE - Rs. 800 Million, to get them to boycott the 2005 Presidential Elections, which until now has not been contradicted by the Government.

Wickremesinghe and the UNP have still miles to go before they can think of making any serious inroads to the Government - other than by working on disgruntled MPs in the Rajapaksa adminstration. The ingredients may be available for a thrust forward, but mass mobilisation has always been their weak-point in recent years. Their National Organiser S.B. Dissanayake, sulking to a point, that he has to share his post with Sarath Ranawake, is unseen and unheard, probably at the mapping stage still, plotting and planning the next move.

They have launched on a pocket meeting strategy now, but the one they had in Minuwangoda backfired when Edward Gunasekera got hooted by a section backing a different organizer Wickremesinghe had pulled up the local organizers saying this would make others wanting to come back hesitate. A meeting held the next day in Borella however was a success.

The thinking of the hierarchy at 'Siri Kotha', their Party headquarters, seems to be that the country is glued to the Cricket World Cup till the end of the month, followed by Vesak in early May, and that they will launch their assault only thereafter; but they are known for prevarication, and in cricketing parlance, dropping catches given straight to their hands.

New alignments for New Year