Situation Report

That the ongoing military offensives in the Wanni are eluding deadlines and resultant headlines in the media is no longer a secret.

Some of the military top brass are now conceding, at least privately, that it is wrong to place time limits. Unexpected rains, muddy terrain and lack of strength are among reasons adduced. That no doubt reflects a doctrine of trial and error if not a militarily unpardonable lapse in forward planning. Little wonder the delay is disappointment for the political leadership awaiting a "major success" or a "breakthrough." This is particularly in the backdrop of newer threats that have begun to envelope other areas and further heighten concerns in the dovecotes of power.

However, many aspects are shrouded in secrecy. It is not because they are military secrets or information of a sensitive nature. To the contrary, these are matters of public concern. It is they who contribute to the Government's "war on terror." It is to provide them a safe environment and a better quality of life that the troops are sacrificing their life and limb.

Coming to grips with ground realities is beneficial to them in many ways. Greater appreciation of the realities would translate into greater public support and co-operation. Of course that would run counter to the unmitigated propaganda and hype though such a phenomenon is difficult to sustain all the time. More so at a time when formidable sections of the Government are taking a closer look at the ongoing military campaign to carefully discern where the war is headed.

This includes even President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Minister of Defence and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. It was only on March 28 he met senior commanders engaged in military offensives in the Wanni. During an interactive session at the National Security Council (NSC), he fielded questions, sought answers and personally took note of the factual position.

Yet, serious personal constraints prevent delving into many aspects though it would have only given the public a better perception. This was possible during all previous phases of the separatist war but not this time.

The focal point of attention remains the Mannar sector, where the longest running military offensive continues. It began on July 2 last year. Since the Government's abrogation of the Norwegian-brokered Ceasefire Agreement in January, this year, this offensive formed the first major thrust against the Tiger guerrillas after the Government formally declared its "war on terror." The immediate aim was to re-capture areas in an around the Madhu shrine, sacred to Catholics. For this purpose, columns of troops have been advancing from East of the Giant's Tank area.

The aim was later extended to regain control of a coastal stretch at Vidattaltivu where a Sea Tiger base is located. This base had assumed greater significance after intelligence reports that the guerrillas were using it as a major landing area for military items smuggled in from their makeshift bases across the Gulf of Mannar from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. For this purpose a column of troops began an advance from West of the Giant's tank. Offensives on both fronts continue.

Last Saturday and on Sunday, whilst an entire nation was celebrating the national New Year, troops sprang a surprise on the guerrillas. They made another push to advance towards the church area. There was stiff resistance. As the map on this page shows, troops are now located some one and half kilometres south of the church, on the road leading to the sacred precincts. Bitter battles were fought and both sides suffered casualties. The news of the loss of soldiers reached their near and dear in the south when they were observing the Avurudhu.

On the second major front in the Wanni, at Weli Oya, a column of troops are headed northwards in the direction of Mullaitivu. There were battles here too. Recent rains as well as some soldiers being afflicted by Chikungunya or Dengue had some bearing. However, troops are thrusting forward seizing new ground in a stretch of "no man's" land that lay ahead.

The military offensives in the Wanni assume a new dimension in the light of the Provincial Council elections for the Eastern Province on May 10. Particularly in the Mannar sector, the re-capture of the Madhu shrine and its environs by the troops will bolster the ruling party's position at the polls. It could be argued, perhaps with some justification, that after re-capturing the East, troops were now making gains in the North. For the same reason, Tiger guerrillas would want to avoid loss of any territory dominated by them. They would want to offer stronger resistance at least until the polls are over. Logically this would mean bigger battles ahead.

Besides this, security for the conduct of the polls campaign has also become a challenge to the authorities. Adding significance to this is the 32nd anniversary of the founding of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which falls on May 5, just five days before the polls. The LTTE formally came into being on May 5, 1976.

The biggest challenge comes from ensuring the safety of political personalities who will take part in crowded events like rallies and processions. That the guerrillas had targeted many of them during public events where security breaches occur is very well known. Among them:

Besides the conduct of the Provincial Council elections in the East, the Government's decision to hold this year's May Day rally in Dehiattakandiya in the Ampara district has further enhanced the need for stepped up security. State intelligence services have warned against this event being held in the east, where an estimated 30,000 crowd is expected to take part. However, Government leaders argue the successful conduct of a rally there, ahead of the polls, would bolster their position. The benefits, they say, are many. That would include the fact that with the clearing of the East from Tiger guerrilla presence, the Government could conduct a major rally. Another, they say, is the benefits that would accrue as a result from the polls.

Adding to the newer security concerns in the East is another development that has caused much concern for the defence establishment. That is the rise in Tiger guerrilla activity in the Central Province. Hence, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has decided to appoint Major General Lawrence Fernando, an experienced Army officer, as Overall Operations Commander (OOC) for the Central Province. He has been given wide powers. An MoD directive to Air Marshal Donald Perera, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) on April 10 in this regard states:

"His Excellency the President has been pleased to appoint Maj. Gen U.B.L. Fernando RWP RSP ndu psc as the Overall Operations Commander - Central Province, with immediate effect. All Army, Navy, Air Force, STF Detachments, Civil Security Department, Police areas including Police Stations, all intelligence agencies, Civil Defence Organisations, Civil/Commercial Security Organisations within the Central Province will be placed under the command of Maj. Gen. U.B.L. Fernando RWP RSP ndu psc for operational purposes.

"His areas of responsibility will be:

An identical letter was issued by the Ministry of Defence when Maj. Gen. Fernando was appointed Overall Operations Commander of the Western Province. (Situation Report - The Sunday Times August 27, 2006) On August 18 2006 President Mahinda Rajapaksa handpicked Maj. Gen. Fernando to be the OOC for the Western Province.

Defence authorities have been concerned over the signs of increasing guerrilla activity in the Central Province. In what is believed to be a guerrilla campaign to cause economic sabotage, several power transformers, particularly in the Central Province, have been blasted.

On April 6 two power transformers were blasted in the Kandy district in the Alawathugoda Police area. Another transformer was blasted in the Talawakele Police area on the same day. On April 16, a transformer was blasted at Kelebokke in the Panwila Police area and another at Moussa in the same locality. On the same day, another transformer was blasted in Monerakada area in the same police area. On the same day another transformer was blasted at Devsiripura in the Talawakele Police area. Last Thursday, an unexploded time bomb placed near a transformer was detected and defused on time at Kelebokke. Its explosion, Panwila Police say, would have disrupted power supply to a large tea factory in the area.

Besides the economic sabotage, the Terrorism Investigation Division (TID) of the Police recovered over 60 kilogrammes of C-4 plastic explosives from a house in Digana near Kandy. Investigations later revealed that the entire stock was to be concealed in a car. The vehicle was to be used to carry out an attack on a leading personality when he visited Kandy. Though there have been reports that the explosives recovered were part of a larger quantity sent to Nuwara Eliya, Police are yet to recover them.
Earlier, after the military offensives were launched in the Wanni, the guerrillas demonstrated their strike capability in two main areas outside the theatre of battle in the Wanni. One was in the Moneragala district where they staged a number of attacks, both on the Police as well as on civilians. Despite a string of military operations, the guerrilla group operating in the area was not detected. The other is in the City of Colombo and immediate suburbs.

The fact that guerrilla activity is now spreading in the Central Province, necessating the Government to give priority in appointing an Overall Operations Commander (OOC), to say the least, shows a widening of the guerrilla fronts. Thus, the challenges faced by the Security Forces widen correspondingly.

Besides securing the greater Colombo area, the East, prosecuting battles in the Wanni, the Security Forces now have the unenviable task of meeting a new guerrilla menace in the Central Province. Deadlines or not, the battles will continue.

The scenario is underscored by the words of Sun Tzu in his classic treatise more than 2,500 years ago The Art of War. Commenting on Waging War, he said:

"In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots, ten thousand heavy chariots, and a hundred thousand mail-clad soldiers, with provisions enough to carry them a thousand li (Note: 2.78 modern Li make a mile), the expenditure at home and at the front, including entertainment of guests, small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armour, will reach the total of a thousand ounces of silver per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of hundred thousand men.

"When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, the men's weapons will grow dull and their ardour will be dampened. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength, and if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the state will not be equal to the strain. Never forget: When your weapons are dulled, your ardour dampened, your strength exhausted, and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue.

"Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays. In all history, there is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. Only one who knows the disastrous effects of a long war can realize the supreme importance of rapidity in bringing it to a close. It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war who can thoroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on……"

War assumes new dimension in view of poll