Regular readers residing outside of Sri Lanka have been posing the most challenging questions lately. The desire to return but uncertainty over future outcomes seems to be top of the mind. That the requests are coming from an ethnically diverse mix, with asymmetrically more questions posed by members of minorities have made it a refreshing research to undertake.
The question has tied in well with an excellent new book by historian Niall Ferguson titled “Civilization: The West and the Rest”, in which he argues for six key themes as being crucial in determining the success of a society, and has been the basis for the rise of the “West” over the last 400 years.
Although the features that will determine the future of Sri Lanka will be unique to her, it doesn’t hurt to take a closer look and analyse how the country stacks up against what the author titles the “six killer apps”.
Taken together with a closer look at potential personal financial situations, this should help provide a framework for most readers to make what is a complicated decision. The analysis tells much about the relative fall of the attraction of the “West” as it does about the potential for Sri Lanka.
Competition:
Europe was politically fragmented, and within each monarchy or republic there were multiple competing corporate entities. Sri Lanka’s position currently remains mixed, with a few large corporations and the government generating most economic activity. Weak infrastructure has made it one of the least competitive countries in Asia. That however is offset by a well educated workforce, and frugal innovation focused on delivering cutting edge solutions at a lower cost to a vast public. As with her past, geography may well decide the success of Sri Lanka in the next 100 years as we enter a period of global rebalancing.
Scientific Revolution:
All the major 17th-century breakthroughs in mathematics, astronomy, physics, chemistry and biology happened in Western Europe. One of the best gauges of scientific advancements is a close look at the number of journal publications. While China and India are currently playing catch up, if you include the nationalities of the authors who publish from the US, UK and Europe, the two nationalities reach a staggering 85%. Sri Lanka has one of the worst records of publications due in part to the government policy of aiming for quasi-social equality at the expense of research in higher education. However, like with India the success of Sri Lankan graduates overseas holds promise for continued increase in the field. The most damaging aspect of the research framework in the country is the lack of support for commercialising research.
The take-up of mathematics and sciences has been dropping in the last decade across all levels of education and languages in the country, which does not provide for a bright future. The Indian and Chinese influence on the country will have a net-positive impact on the technical fields, but government support and a firm commitment say of 1% of GDP towards research is needed to reap benefits over the next few decades.
Rule of law and representative government:
This optimal system of social and political order emerged in the English-speaking world, based on property rights and the representation of property owners in elected legislatures.
For anyone interested in taking a rational decision, it may be prudent to distinguish between propaganda and reality. For all its faults, we still elect governments in Sri Lanka, and although the rule of law can be questionable at times, free holding property rights and universal franchise (the oldest in Asia) are a cornerstone of governance. Local elections hardly make any sense. But in a non-mandatory voting democracy, we have to put up with strange screwballs from time to time.
Modern medicine:
All the major 19th- and 20th-century advances in health care, including the control of tropical diseases, were made by Western Europeans and North Americans. While breakthroughs in the future may come from Asia in the future, Sri Lanka will be an effective user not a trend setter given her small size. Research shows that capability across the medical system in the country is on par with any advanced economy. What’s lacking is resources and funding, which will be alleviated as the private sector enters more fields traditionally left to public hospitals. The proximity to India will help in accessing world beating medical services at falling prices through frugal medical innovation.
Consumer society:
The Industrial Revolution took place where there was both a supply of productivity-enhancing technologies and a demand for more, better and cheaper goods, beginning with cotton garments. Consumerism has been in place for more than 30 years now and the increases are exponential, paradoxical to both Buddhist and Hindu leanings of a majority of the population. Too much personal credit growth remains the single largest threat to the overall economy.
Work ethics:
Westerners were the first people in the world to combine more extensive and intensive labour with higher savings rates, permitting sustained capital accumulation. The median working week in Colombo is currently 42.5 hours in the private sector, and 36 for government employees. That compares with OECD medians of 37 and 34, respectively. Don’t kid yourself into thinking that the locals “chill out”.
The choice to return is personal and driven by emotions that go well beyond the rational arguments highlighted above. A sound personal finance strategy to achieve life goals remain a vital pillar of any decision to return.
A war is unlikely as the demographic profile continues to shift to an older population.
But be prepared to face a much more competitive and challenging work environment as there are still more qualified people than available opportunities. It still takes a lot more to be successful in Sri Lanka than in an adopted country. The decision to return is a question about the readiness to take that challenge, as much as it is about all other external factors.
(Kajanga is an Investment Specialist based in Sydney, Australia. You can write to him at kajangak@gmail.com). |
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