The Political Column

7th November 1999

The politics of cross-overs

By our Political Correspondent

When the President made the proclamation, the Election Commissioner was on medical leave recovering from a heart ailment. He was scheduled to come back only on November 1 and to fix the date for elections accordingly. But it appears that the President was in a hurry to fix a date that suited her. Therefore, she appointed one of the deputies as the acting Commissioner to fulfill the task. Thereafter, the acting commissioner fixed the date for December 21 which is said to be astrologically auspicious and favourable for the President.

According to astrologers, the number rules the whole day with the President's birth time having a tremendous influence on the moon, which means victory assured, astrologically. However, the ground situation could be far from this.

But right now both these parties are engaged in a bitter fight to gain supremacy among the people. Each party is trying to politically undercut the other.

While some UNPers are making a move to create problems for their leader by staging a cross-over, there are similar disgruntled elements in the PA, too, who are looking forward to cross-over to the UNP. The reasons are numerous.

One significant cross-over that would be likely to create a dent in the body politic is the cross-over of Sarath Amunugama. Dr. Amunugama had extensive discussions with both the PA and the UNP before he made this decision. This is vital for the PA and it could be a setback for the UNP. The UNP moved fast on Wednesday night to send a letter calling for explanation from Dr. Amunugama. The letter sent by General Secretary Gamini Atukorala states as follows:

"The Daily News in its publication of Monday 1st November 1999 under the headline 'Sarath Amunugama tells BBC he will quit UNP' has stated that "he will definitely leave the UNP if there is no proper response from the Party for his National Government concept." It is further noted that there has been no denial by you as to the making of this statement or the accuracy of the contents of the article under reference (copy of the article enclosed).

"You have thus acted in breach of the party constitution, party discipline and contrary to the conduct required of a Member of Parliament and the decision of the Parliamentary Group at its meeting held on 22-10-1999 that no member makes any statements to the media without prior approval of the party.

"I would be grateful to have your immediate explanation and response to the aforesaid to reach me not later than Sunday 7th November 1999."

Dr. S. Amunugama is likely to send his response to the averments made in the letter. He told this column there was more time for this since he was busy arranging the possible shift of their support to the PA.

By Thursday morning, nearly 25 UNPers including six parliamentarians were planning to meet the President on the following day (Friday) around 7.15 a.m. at Temple Trees. Most of the PA cabinet members were scheduled to be present to meet these members of the UNP alternative pressure group (Eksath Jathika Pakshaye Vikalpa Balawegaya) to form a national government with the PA.

"We would not imagine even for a moment leaving the party," Dr. Amunugama told this column. "We will work as an alternative team with the government," he said. By mid-week the UNP rebels headed by Dr. Amunugama finalised everything including meeting with the President on Friday morning at an auspicious time.

The UNP defectors believe that this shift of loyalty would split the party right down the middle. This would create a major impact even more than the crossing over of S. W. R. D. Bandaranaike from the UNP in 1951, he added.

The planned de facto cross-over would be favourable for President Kumaratunga. It appeared that the UNP hierarchy was highly worried over the latest development. Party Chairman Karu Jayasuriya made every effort to bring about a reconciliation between the two parties through his negotiating skills, but failed. Later UNP's Bodhi Ranasinghe and Dayananda Wickremasinghe made a surprise visit to meet former minister Nanda Mathew who is also in the rebel group. But nothing positive came out.

The UNP sent another emissary to meet Wijeyapala Mendis and tell him that the leader was willing to meet him at any place that he wished to. But nothing had worked for the UNP. The rebels were also adamant and they decided to go along with the PA while remaining in the UNP.

The UNP will definitely call for an explanation and have a disciplinary inquiry against them and finally sack them. But the rebels are planning to go to the Supreme Court and it would take at least two months for the determination of the court. By that time, a spokesman for the rebel group said, the presidential election would be over and the anti-defection laws will be in place.

However, everything will depend on the presidential election as to who would win. If President Kumaratunga is re-elected, it would help the rebels to continue with the national government. But if Mr. Wickremesinghe emerged victorious, it would be a totally different story for them.

In 1994 too, several SLFPers crossed over when the elections were round the corner. The SLFP defectors included Anura Bandaranaike, Pradeep Hapangama and several others. But the UNP could not gain anything positive from this cross-over. Would it be the same for President Kumaratunga is the question raised in political circles. The decision is with the people whether they would approve of the de facto cross-over or not.

Now, if the President wins the election, is she going to continue with the present parliament or will she go for a fresh election is another question that needs a thorough examination.

If she wins the election and if she tries to continue with the same parliament, she will, no doubt, get the support of the remaining rebels in the UNP. In that event, the President will have the required two thirds majority to solve the burning problems of the country. But then how long she can continue is another question. She has no alternative but to hold a referendum to extend the life of parliament if she requires a two third majority in parliament because in the event of a dissolution, no party would get the required two third majority.

The other alternative is for the rebels to capture power in the UNP after the presidential elections and join hands with the government to form a national government after the elections. All this will be sheer speculation if Mr. Wickremesinghe emerges victorious. For this, the UNP has undoubtedly to work hard against the PA which could make use of the government resources for its own benefit.

Although the UNP has made a valiant effort to keep the party ranks intact, the leadership is of the opinion that the de facto cross-over of several senior members would not create much of a problem for them.

According to a UNP source, some of these people who have decided to cross-over have been framed by the government some months or years ago. In his opinion, the government has relied upon people on whom they went on a witchhunt not so long ago.

The UNP, however, has had several discussions with dissident member Wijeyapala Mendis, too, but without much results. One thing is clear that the voter will be confused as to who the actual UNPers are when one section of the UNP supports the government.

President Kumaratunga, in the meantime, is totally dependent on the alleged de facto cross-over and she thinks that it would put her on a pedestal against the UNP candidate.

It is now said that Dr. Amunugama's drift towards the PA could have been avoided if he was given some party responsibility and a role to play.

UNPers say that his demand is that he be made the district leader for Kandy. Mr. Wickremasinghe is facing a problem there, too, with Keheliya Rambukwella consolidating his position in the Kandy district. Mr. Rambukwella had apparently told the party leader that the leaders would be stunned when they see the response of the people of Kandy when the UNP holds its first major rally there the day after nominations.

He had apparently told Mr. Wickremesinghe that he could make his decision as to who should be made the Kandy district leader after considering the response of the people at the meeting which would be organised by him.

Nanda Mathew's move has been described as a surprise by most of the observers but a lot of UNPers see this as Mr. Mathew's resentment towards the UNP general secretary Gamini Atukorale. The two of them did not have a healthy relationship when it came to politics in the Ratnapura district. Mr. Atukorale being the general secretary of the party had allegedly caused problems for Mr. Mathew which had not been attended to by the party leadership. Mr. Mathew is a long-standing member of the UNP and a minister.

The UNP rebel group which amounts to about 50 including members of parliament, provincial council members and Pradeshiya Sabha members had regular meetings with their leaders at a well-known place on Bullers Road.

They are trying to convince the former general secretary of the UNP Sirisena Cooray, also to join them. Mr. Cooray is out of the country and he is expected back before the presidential elections. The UNP is also trying to woo him through Milinda Moragoda, a person close to both the UNP leader and Mr. Cooray.

Meanwhile, the state media are trying to create problems for the UNP top-rung member Anura Bandaranaike over a reference he made at the UNP convention at the Town Hall last Sunday. Mr. Bandaranaike during his speech allegedly said that with the death of Minister Thondaman, the UNP could obtain the majority of the plantation vote after having proposed a minute's silence to honour the late Minister.

Mr. Bandaranaike is also reported to have said that if the same thing happened to Minister M. H. M. Ashraff, the UNP could get more votes. Having seen what was in the Daily News, Mr. Bandaranaike thought that it would hurt Minister Ashraff. He immediately called Mr. Ashraff's close associate, the Colombo businessman A. J. M. Muzamil. He told Mr. Muzamil that he did not mean anything bad for Minister Ashraff when he made the reference to the plantation voters and thereafter told him to convey his message to the minister and wished him long life.

Mr. Muzamil in turn contacted Mr. Ashraff who told him that he was not bothered about what Mr. Bandaranaike said.

Minister Ashraff was also in touch with the UNP leader Wickremesinghe these days. First it was on his birthday which fell recently. Both the leaders exchanged pleasantries and wished each other. While Mr. Wickremesinghe wished Minister Ashraff a happy birthday, the SLMC leader wished him back for the UNP's decision to field him as a presidential candidate.

Minister Ashraff, in the meantime, has put forward five demands if he is to support the candidature of President Kumaratunga. Three of them are significant, since most of the people were clamouring for a just and righteous society.

The three conditions are: 1) to hold a free and fair election, 2) that the President should be acountable to parliament and 3) that she should shed all her legal immunities bestowed on her by the Constitution.

The serious question that arises is how committed Mr. Ashraff was when he put forward these demands. Obviously, Mr. Ashraff wants all these fulfilled before the next presidential election. Then one could ask as to how the President could ensure a free and fair election. This could only be done through an independent election commission. It was the UNP's demand, too. Any party in opposition will crave for this kind of commission, since they are at a disadvantage when compared with the resources of any government in power.

The other question that arises is whether Mr. Ashraff has put forward these demands knowing well that the President would not do anything about it and that it would give leeway to keep his option to see which way the political trend tilts. Mr. Ashraff, though entrusted with the PA eastern provincial campaign, obviously wanted to remain neutral at this juncture and later drift towards where the political power is concentrated.

All his three main demands could be met by the government before the presidential election if the government is keen on having a free and fair election.

But it does not look like the government will move towards fulfilling any of these demands made by Mr. Ashraff. The Minister, too, is silent about this matter now. Will Mr. Ashraff forget all these demands and extend an unconditional support to President Kumaratunga or will drift towards the UNP making it an excuse is yet to be seen.

While some say that there is a natural swing in the country towards the UNP, others think that it will be a close fight between President Kumaratunga and Mr. Wickremesinghe.

At the moment, political backstage boys are busy canvassing the support of the CWC. But the President must first invite Thondaman Jr to take up the duties of his grandfather as the minister of livestock development.

On Wednesday night, Thondaman Jr. was unanimously elected as the leader of the CWC. He has no option but to support the Kumaratunga administration. But others in his fold might not like the idea.

However, the UNP's position is different on this point. They point out that at the 1997 local government elections as well as in the 1999 provincial elections, one third of the plantation people voted with the UNP. Mr. Thondaman could only manage a 40 per cent of the total number of votes. The UNP pointed out that there was a gradual decline in Mr. Thondaman's popularity. But analysts think that there could be a sympathy wave on Mr. Thondaman's demise towards the CWC which would eventually go in favour of President Kumaratunga.

There is another argument that the popu larity of Thondaman Jr. as the leader of the CWC will gradually decline and result in a split at the end. They also argue that the estate workers are not that immature to elect a relatively newcomer, meaning there won't be sympathy votes in favour of President Kumaratunga.

The ground situation is totally different. A new President is to be elected. So the people would think wisely rather than give in to their emotional feelings, one analyst pointed out.

When the bier containing the body of late Minister Thondaman was brought to parliament, there were ministers and parliamentarians who were present along with President Kumaratunga to pay their last respects. As the President was about to leave the premises, she had a word with one of the UNP rebel members Susil Moonasinghe. A young Turk of the UNP who was very inquisitive about the matter inquired from Mr. Moonasinghe as to what the discussion was. Mr. Moonasinghe dodged him tactfully, but the matter was reported to the UNP leader later by the young parliamentarian.

On the same occasion, the UNP parliamentarian Mahinda Samarasinghe had the opportunity to meet Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake. There, they discussed the cross-over and Mr. Wickremanayake apparently told Mr. Samarasinghe that there were no plans to appoint any of those rebels as ministers in the PA cabinet. When asked as to why his ministry was broken into two and appointed a new secretary to head the plantation industry, he said it was because the new secretary Sarath Weerakoon who was a brilliant administrator was trying to retire from government service. Mr. Weerakoon was the government agent for Colombo until he was appointed secretary to the Plantation Industries Ministry.

In another development, UNP's Anura Bandaranaike has written a strong letter to the UNP leader that his duty is also to see Mr. Wickremesinghe as the president of this country and he has urged the party leader to consider his proposal made at the UNP convention last Sunday. At the convention, Mr. Bandaranaike proposed that the members of the north western provincial council who have been boycotting the session should go back and take oaths as members of the council.

In his letter, he has said this proposal was approved with a round of applause at that convention. But the NWP UNP leader contradicted this position obviously with instructions from the leadership. At the Kurunegala UNP district committee meeting, Gamini Jayawickrema Perera again directed a reference to this matter and said some people were making statements for their own benefit and personal glory. UNP members should not go back and take oaths as suggested by Mr. Bandaranaike.

There were mixed feelings in the audience. Obviously most of the elected members wanted to go to the council, but it was not allowed.

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