But can clause 2 1 (a) which protects him protect the nation and guarantee its peace, prosperity and security? Ranil has created the illusion of "peace" by removing the road barriers. This illusion is based on a ceasefire and not on a lasting peace. The distance between a ceasefire and peace is as far apart as the Antarctic is from the Arctic. A ceasefire is not peace. It is only a prelude to peace. So far Ranil has failed even to get a pledge from Prabhakaran to come to peace talks. So far he has got only a vague promise to meet in Phuket, the holiday resort in Thailand. Ranil is also under pressure from the Tigers to de-proscribe them before coming to Phuket. The Tigers are saying that he must fulfill all the conditions of the MoU before they could sit together in Phuket.

This is typical of the Tigers whose best bet now is to (1) keep on blaming Ranil's government and (2) continue to prolong the peace process. Either way, Ranil is responsible for the consequences of signing the MoU. If the Tigers refuse to budge from this position, it means that Ranil is stuck with his MoU, which he signed without consulting the President. When he signed the MoU pushed under his nose by the Norwegians it was his constitutional and prime ministerial duty to consult the President before counter-signing it. But in his eagerness to gain the kudos - and also to undercut his President - he signed it, taking full responsibility for the consequences. Now he has to pay the price for it.

The President has all the reasons to chuckle at his predicament because she was never a party to it. When Ranil signed the MoU on his own he took the riskiest gamble that would either make him or break him. He thinks he can make it. He must be working also on the belief that he and the Norwegian can share the Nobel Peace Prize, leaving Prabhakaran out of it. It is most unlikely that a mass murderer wanted by the Interpol, wanted by India and banned by the leading democratic nations could ever be awarded even a fraction of the Nobel Peace Prize. And yet if anyone is going to block him from getting the Nobel Peace Prize it is Prabhakaran. It looks as if Prabhakaran's is now reduced to the only tactic available to him: prolong the process as long as he can, with the north and the east under his command, until it is time for him to strike back.But the longer the peace process drags on the worse it is going to be for Ranil. Ranil today is exactly in the position that King Kasyappa was when he came down from the rock to meet the challenge of his brother: he is caught between the hard rock of Chandrika and the forward passage blocked by Prabhakaran. He has nowhere to go except abroad begging for help from foreigners to save him.

Prabhakaran will not come out in the open to run the administration. He will be the puppet master who will pull the strings. He has gained enough experience by manipulating Ranil and he will have no difficulty in manipulating the others. Considering the way Ranil's Ministers - Hakeem, Thondaman and Mahadeva - are running behind Prabhakaran, it quite apparent that the latter has already shown a capacity to dictate terms from his 80-feet bunker in Kilinochchi to the UNF.

The political equation is bound to change significantly once Prabhakaran gets hold of the Interim Council. Already the Tamil parties have been brought under his will. The Muslims and the Indian Tamils are willing to toe his line. Ranil is willing to let him run the way he wants because he has already accepted without a murmur that he is not the Prime Minister of the north and the east. What is there left for him to do after all this? He is not prepared to fight Prabhakaran the way he is gearing to fight Chandrika. He is manoeuvring to strip Chandrika of all her powers whilst conceding all powers to Prabhakaran. But is he prepared to face the backlash arising from his "asymmetrical" honeymoon with Prabhakaran? After the de-proscription and after the Interim Council he will not be able to cover-up or suppress the media with his prime ministerial pressures. Power would slip out of his hands into the opposition and the electorate.

t this critical point he will realize that neither the international community nor Prabhakaran will be able to deliver him the votes he needs to keep himself in power. The hard realities would have by then undermined his authority as a peace-maker and mounting pressures will make him exasperated to the point of pronouncing Phuket as "Fook-it"!

Whatever happens now, he must go to Phuket. But when he returns will the people reject him saying that he went to "Fook-it"?

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