Untitled Document

Elementary to establish the motive, my dear Watson
Sherlock Holmes, the celebrated detective had been summoned to Colombo to investigate the Case of the Missing Briefcase. He had just finished his investigations and was discussing the matter with his companion, Dr. Watson...
"So, who are your suspects, Holmes?" Dr. Watson asked.
"There are three clear suspects, my dear Watson..." Holmes said.
"And who may they be?"
"Well, first there are the media chaps in whose presence the briefcase containing the documents about the so-called coup was allegedly lost..."
"And the others?"
"Then of course there is the Southerner in whose house it was lost and then there are the greens who were to be the victims of the alleged coup..."
"And whom do you suspect the most?" Watson asked.
"For that, my dear Watson, we must look at the motive..."
"And what motives do these different people have?"
"Well, the briefcase is supposed to contain an important document, outlining the details of a coup that is supposed to have already been put into operation..."
"And what does that mean?"
"Of course, if the media stole it, they could have a scoop by revealing the details of the plan and that makes sense..."
"But what about the others?"
"Well, if it was the Southerner that makes sense too because it would foil a plan which did not envisage the Southerner becoming the next leader..."
"And the Greens?"
"And of course, it would only make sense for the Greens to try and prevent a coup that was supposed to oust them..."
"So, Holmes, looking at the motives alone you wouldn't be able to determine who did it?"
"Ah, but you have overlooked a very important factor besides motive, my dear Watson..."
"And what's that?"
"Now, my dear Watson, this is supposed to be a briefcase containing a top secret document. So, if it was stolen deliberately that means the thief knew of its existence and that is very unlikely if the thief was either a green or a media chap..."
"Unless of course, they went about stealing everyone's briefcases as a matter of routine and then stumbled upon this document in it..."Watson suggested.
"Which, you will agree Watson, is also highly unlikely..."
"But that leaves the Southerner as the prime suspect..."
"But, my dear Watson, if he wished to steal it I would presume he would do it somewhere else rather than at his own house..."
"That makes sense too," Watson agreed, "but that means there are no more suspects left..."
"Ah, but there is, my dear Watson, there is..."
"And who would that be?"
"Why, the complainant himself..."
"But what would he gain by faking the loss of his own briefcase?"
"Why do people fake the loss of anything?" Holmes wanted to know.
"Mostly for insurance..." Watson said.
"Ah, there you are. So, if he eventually ends up on the losing side, he could always claim insurance from any punishments saying if not for the loss of his briefcase, everything would have been fine..."
"But why would he need that? Who would dare to penalise him?"
"Well, the Southerner for instance, if he does get full control..."
"But that's a bit far-fetched, isn't it?"
"Yes it is, Watson, but don't forget that someone is known to have complained that his credit cards were stolen, when something went wrong with those..."
"But how can you be so sure?" Watson asked.
"Elementary, my dear Watson, elementary. If the blues did have such a plan, they wouldn't be carrying that plan in the briefcase of such an absent-minded person. And more importantly, if they did have the brains and the organisational skills to put together such a plan, the greens wouldn't have lasted so long.."
Watson didn't disagree with that.

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