As Sri Lanka goes to the polls on Tuesday in what is one of the most decisive elections post-independence, there is one certainty for which all of us need to be thankful for regardless of whoever may be the victor. This certainty is that an almost unchallengeable juggernaut Rajapaksa Presidency has been shaken to its very marrow by the range and forcefulness of the challenges mounted against it. I am not talking here only of political challenges but also of reenergized public opinion which is now reflecting issues and questions concerning our political systems and governance processes which would have seemed quite unthinkable just a few months back.

Despite the vicious mud slinging and the upsurge in electoral violence, this is perhaps a most positive feature regarding the upcoming elections. And notwithstanding persisting cynicism regarding the virtually overnight transformation of a hardline army commander to a liberal unifier of a once fractured opposition as its common candidate, I am, (as a citizen of this country who will insist on casting my vote Tuesday hence), insensibly grateful for this interjection of a strong counter into a hitherto cowed and subjugated polity.

Electoral paradoxes and government hypocrisy

There is, after all, little quarrel with the proposition that in the absence of a strong counter, this month's election would have been a given for the incumbent President. We would see continued disregard of constitutional safeguards ensuring principled governance and further extreme repression of the media. Lofty Presidential pronouncements that there are no more minorities or a majority in Sri Lanka would be belied by (to mention one existing example) the sentencing of an ethnic Tamil to twenty years imprisonment primarily for the sin of writing and publishing commentaries critical of government policy in the war theatre. It took a strongly contested election to release JS Tissainayagam in bail and to 'resettle" thousands of internally displaced persons living in the mud on welfare camps. What better message these acts may have conveyed if they had been engaged in voluntarily by the government without being virtually bulldozed into so doing by opposition demands?

Contempt for the law and for the Constitution

But it is the contempt with which the law and the Constitution is regarded by the current administration which is quite remarkable. The Commissioner of Elections as well as the Supreme Court has been rendered mute witnesses to the total flouting of election laws. No doubt, the difficulties that the Commissioner of Elections finds himself in, given the over and covert intimidation that his Department is subjected to and given also that the police is firmly under the political thumb of the government, are enormous.

However, there is little point in engaging in vain dramatics by withdrawing the Competent Authority on the state media and by threatening to step down post elections. Instead, at the very minimum, abuses of state resources must be comprehensively documented by the Commissioner's Department and the results thereof must be publicly and periodically released. These are important factors that should influence the public vote surely? In what manner is the duty of the Commissioner of Elections satisfied in this context?

In addition, we have unnamed spokesmen from the Attorney General's Department who have claimed that the delay in the President appointing the nominated members of the Constitutional Council is due to all the nominations not being sent in. There is perhaps a very good reason as to why this spokesman remained anonymous for this blatant falsehood is contradicted by court records themselves that show that, in fact, the requisite nominations were all sent as per constitutional procedure with the last and most contentious nomination being by a majority of the minority parties as constitutionally permitted.

It is this most blatant mockery of the law that is troubling even more than farcical media advertisements which are replete with falsehoods regarding the accomplishments of the incumbent's term. One of the more absurd claims by the way is that the Southern expressway and the Katunayake expressway have been completed. The reality is not only that these expressways are far from being completed but that lives have been lost due to corrupt construction practices.

Influencing the 'floating voter'

So to give the unknown devil (or angel) his proper due, the fact that General Sarath Fonseka has provided a strong counter force to an exceedingly unhealthy juggernaut Presidency needs to be acknowledged. This is, of course, notwithstanding the presence on his stage of characters quite singularly bereft of democratic credentials such as former Chief Justice Sarath Silva who has resoundingly put egg on the faces of misguided editorialists and columnists who were foolish enough to predict that he would not enter politics following retirement. Regardless, the fact that the common candidate lacks the dangerously manipulative political base of the incumbent, (let alone those distasteful family connections), taken together with the myriad of opposition forces backing him, may well suffice to sway (albeit uneasily) the vote in the minds of those comprising the floating voter base in this country.

This is not to say of course, that all the evils that bedevil Sri Lanka's governance systems will miraculously disappear into thin air come January 26th 2010. Whatever may be the outcome of the elections, this country will certainly face serious trials and tribulations in the months ahead. While the focus may be on the Presidential polls now, this year's parliamentary polls to be held later, centering on unpopular and corrupt ministers and local level politicians, hold out a completely different picture. If the opposition momentum continues beyond this Tuesday's election, we will perhaps witness some unique political scenarios developing in the near future. These are some slight positive factors in today's largely dismal and degenerate electoral culture.

Learning from the public mood

We can also hope that Mahinda Rajapaksa, once an appealing human rights activist and certainly one of the more likeable among our political leaders, has learnt from the critical public mood of past months that extreme corruption, family rule, misgovernance and repression of dissent cannot be excused under the cover of winning the war. We can hope that he would be wary of propagandists in the state or private media operated by his sycophants adept at changing their tune according to which way the political winds blow. We can also hope that whoever wins or loses on Tuesday, the Executive Presidency will be stripped of its obnoxious features and the Constitution adhered to in spirit as well as form.
If not, it will certainly be a most profound pity for this country and her people.