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Playing numbers game and guessing game

Politics and Politricks by Chanda Dayake

Come Thursday -- and at long last all Chanda Dayakayas can take a well-earned rest. They have been working overtime ever since President Mahinda decided he would have provincial council elections -- and what a drag that was, an election every couple of months.

Then, we had the high drama of the presidential election and now, we are sending a whole lot of MPs home, electing a set of brand new Parliamentarians and we would have done our duty by the nation for the next six years at least!

That is the plan, anyway. There may be many a slip between now and Thursday. Ranil Wickremesinghe and Somawansa Amarasinghe maybe arrested on conspiracy charges just after the results are announced, the ruling party may get a five-sixth majority and Dayananda Dissanayake might resign; ah, hope springs eternal!

But what strikes me most is how low-key this election is: not in terms of money spent or per capita number of cut-outs and posters but how bereft the campaign is of real issues. There are no debates, we are not being asked to choose one set of policies over the other, only one set of scoundrels over another.

Now, if you are a prospective voter, you should take the numbers test: think of all the candidates and their numbers. Whose number do you recall most easily? For me, for better or for worse (more worse, really), that would be Wimal Weerawansa, not because I plan to vote for him and have memorised his number but because it is staring at me at every nook and corner in Colombo, complete with the mug shot with the neatly trimmed beard and the pseudo-philosophical look.

Really, if you are in the UPFA, it is now a numbers game: whose numbers are most visible? Who will obtain the most number of preferences? And will the ruling party get the magic number of 150 seats-the two-thirds majority that everyone is talking about?

The policies of the UPFA? Read the Mahinda Chinthanaya 'Idiri Dekma' (Mahinda's thoughts, the way forward) we are told -- whatever that means. I suppose they think this is like the movies: you like the original Harry Potter so much that you want to see the sequel anyway, no matter what rubbish it is. Now, I am not saying the 'Idiri Dekma' is all rubbish, but I think you know what I mean.

As for the opposition, their styles are different. The UNP has unleashed a series of promises -- and they are in the comfortable position of being able to make these promises because they know they have very little chance of actually having to keep them.

So, vote for the UNP, we are told if you are pensioner (enhanced pensions), a harassed housewife (reduced cost of essential goods), a northerner (dismantled high security zone), unemployed (twenty free trade zones) or even if you simply own a mobile phone (reduced call charges).

Still I would daresay that promise for promise, man for man the UNP, at least on paper appears to be a better bet. In Colombo for instance, I would prefer Wijeyadasa Rajapaksa to Wimal Weerawansa, Srinath Perera to Chandana Kathriarachchi and Karunasena Kodituwakku to Duminda Silva.

But consider the campaigns of these respective individuals and we see where this election is heading. Given the nuances of the proportional representation system, the odds are stacked heavily in favour of the rich and the powerful. The sheer money power and the use and abuse of state machinery -- with aiding and abetting by Dayananda Dissanayake who turns a blind eye -- should see the UPFA steam-roll through.

There is another peculiarity in this campaign: the UNP and the JVP have newspaper and television advertisements asking us to vote for their parties and tell us why we should do so. The UPFA has none. Instead, what they have are the different candidates tripping over each other in the battle for the 'manape'.

This 'manape' fever is somewhat like dengue fever. No I'm not suggesting that it has spread because of Nimal Siripala's inefficiency or that it can be controlled by the Cubans, but it spares no one; even the first family is not immune. That is probably why we saw advertisements this week showing BR, CR and NR (Basil, Chamal and Namal, for the uninitiated) in different poses: Basil at the controls of a Backhoe, Chamal and the Chinese inspecting the Hambantota Port and Namal with a lot of Na Mal, the national flower.

Now, does the lack of a party campaign for the UPFA mean that victory for the ruling party is a foregone conclusion? Possibly, at least in their calculations. So all that is left for the candidates to do is to get on 'manape' bandwagon before it leaves you behind as an also ran.

This lack of a party campaign does not matter so much to the UPFA anyway because, even though the UNP and the JVP have their blurbs, they are not inspiring enough -- not even as much as the Sarath Fonseka ads that ran during the presidential election campaign.

The UNP is clinging on to the economic miracle J.R. wrought over thirty years ago -- and that is a bit boring and stale now. Spare a thought for them though: they cannot evoke memories about the war, nor can they talk about the ceasefire!

The JVP advertisements are slightly better but clinging on to the General's uniform may not make much headway because getting the General released is not the number one priority of most Sri Lankans right now -- however unreasonable his incarceration may seem to them.

So, what will the collective opposition be doing on Friday? Counting their losses or trying to cobble together a coalition? Neither, I would say. They would probably be quietly celebrating that they were able to thwart a two-thirds majority for the UPFA. But they better be careful because you never know when that phone call from Basil would come to one of your backbenchers with the offer of the Ministry of Rural Road Development -- and that would be much better than languishing in the opposition benches until 2016!

Well, we've had our share of elections and we are getting quite bored with them; elections have been over-cooked; but boy, are we not going to see a drought for quite some time to come. JR's words, uttered after the infamous 1982 referendum, quoting one of his favourite historical figures, Napoleon, come to mind: "roll up the electoral map, it won't be needed for another ten years". Ten years, even for the Rajapaksa juggernaut, is a long time but for six years, it may just hold true.

As we conclude the election season, we must conclude Chanda Dayakaya's writing too-and that is not only because there are no more elections to write about. Why, last week instructions went out to journalists to bare their assets, or else face the consequences. I don't plan to reveal anything because none of the candidates at the election -- barring three -- have declared their assets. Let the other 222 follow suit -- and I will then honour my obligations.

But I depart with the advice that you don't have to wait until dawn on Friday morning, munching roasted peanuts and sipping ginger beer while watching stale Sinhala movies dished out by the television stations starring candidate Geetha Kumarasinghe for the first 'chanda prathipalaya'; it is already out: Sanath Jayasuriya, unable to make it to the playing eleven of the Mumbai Indians, has been selected for our national team for the Twenty 20 World Cup.

I'm not a gambling man but I can't resist leaving you with this proposition: shall we take a bet on who will retire first, Sanath Jayasuriya or Dayananda Dissanayake? You take your pick, and whoever it is, I'll say it is the other, because your guess is as good as mine!

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