The Political Column

4th October 1998

PA may field minority decoy

By our Political Correspondent

Troops on Wednesday captured the strate gic town of Mankulam despite a terrible setback in Kilinochchi during the three previous days.

State media prominently described the capture of Mankulam as a significant military victory in the battle to link the North with the rest of the South.

Most analysts believe this would help the troops to cut-off the main supply line to the LTTE's Mullaitivu base.

While playing up the victory in Mankulam, the state media said precious little about the Kilinochchi debacle, which was of a more serious nature.

As usual the people of Sri Lanka were kept uninformed or misinformed while the rest of the world was made aware of what had happened in the North.

While the military censors were busy cutting copies and sometimes massacring them - the Sandeshaya, Sinhala programme of the BBC, gave a full account of the Kilinochchi setback.

Again as usual, the censorship gave rise to speculation and rumour-mongers had a field day. So it was clear that the military censorship was as ineffective as any government propaganda with the Sandeshaya, the voice of Tigers and other agencies giving full and vivid details of the battle of Kilinochchi.

It is also evident that the suppression of the independent media to prevent them from impartially reporting and analysing the situation has not done any good to anyone.

Most people are now more interested in knowing about the magnitude of the setback in Kilinochchi rather than the success in Mankulam.

The reasons why the government wants to hide the truth are obvious.

Especially with a Presidential Election on the cards, what happened in Kilinochchi was certainly the worst possible news for the government. There is also the ever-present fear of a backlash in Sinhala areas, even if the population at large are now largely anaesthetized from such calamities.

Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who monitored the situation from Washington called upon the government to stop waging war for political gains or as a vote-catching device. He urged that the security forces be given full powers to independently plan and execute military strategy, Mr. Wickremesinghe said.

"Although the government has been blaming me for my position with regard to the war, all my predictions about the war have already been proved true.

"The fall of the Kilinochchi army camp can be described as a crucial stage of the war. A large number of troops have lost their lives in this assault. Many others have been wounded. I take this opportunity to share the shock and sorrows of the families of military personnel who lost their lives in the assault. On behalf of myself and my party, I wish speedy recovery for all those who were wounded.

"This attack can be described as one more stage of LTTE's strategy to encircle Jaffna. The attack also proves another important fact: that military strategies should never be planned to achieve political aims. They should solely be planned to suit the military objectives.

"Although the government is trying to keep the nation in the dark with regard to the true picture of the war, the entire outside world knows all about it. Information with regard to the war has reached every country. The government is trying to keep only the people of the country in the dark."

It was the UNP's Working Committee Member Rohitha Bogollagama who first briefed Mr. Wickremesinghe on what was happening.

Mr. Bogollagama who was in touch with military officers and journalists prepared a dossier every three hours or so giving a detailed description of the situation.

Mr. Wickremesinghe who was at the famous Watergate Hotel in Washington asked Mr. Bogollagama to discuss matters with party Chairman and Colombo Mayor Karu Jayasuriya who also kept in touch with the party leader directly. Mr. Wickremesinghe also discussed the situation with White House officials on Wednesday.

He also met former US Ambassador Marion Creekmore now an advisor at the Carter Centre of Conflict Resolution in Atlanta and Professor of International Affairs at Emroy University.

Not only Mr. Wickremesinghe, but Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike was also deeply concerned about the situation and wanted to know exactly what was happening.

She contacted Minister Lakshman Jayakody, her Deputy Defence Minister during the 1970-77 regime and told him she wanted a briefing on the Kilinochchi crisis.

Accordingly a meeting was held at the Rosmead Place residence of the Prime Minister with Acting Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte participating. The matter also came up at the Cabinet meeting with Minister Jayakody again asking for full details.

Minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle said the censorship had given rise to speculation and rumours.

Some ministers also complained that they were in the dark about the Kilinochchi debacle.

At this stage Minister Ratwatte read out casualty figures issued by the Army Headquarters.

Those were the figures announced by newspapers too, one minister commented.

"But those are the official figures," Gen. Ratwatte replied.

Minister Jayakody then queried about the announcements made by the LTTE that they would be handing over a large number of bodies to the ICRC. Gen. Ratwatte said this was a strategy adopted by the LTTE to mislead the people.

"We only accept bodies after proper identification. Most of those bodies are in a bad condition and the LTTE makes use of them to send their dead cadres too to the ICRC to be handed over to the Army."

The LTTE's onslaught early on Sunday pushed government troops nearly seven kilometres backwards from their positions.

Thereafter the LTTE captured the strategic Kilinochchi, from where they had retreated in the face of a massive onslaught from the security forces some years ago.

The LTTE made the strategic move since it knew the government's plan to capture Mankulam was militarily important.

Military intelligence apparently knew little or nothing about the LTTE's attack plans.

So while the government troops captured Mankulam, the LTTE was consolidating its positions in Kilinochchi.

Amidst the war, another important matter for the PA was the proposed Presidential Election early next year. Posters have already come up in Jaffna, signalling the first step in a government campaign to woo voters there.

There were two sets of posters put up, obviously with the help of security forces.

One depicted President Kumaratunga and Minister Mangala Samaraweera and the other only the President. Though these posters were printed sometime ago for the proposed visit of Mr. Samaraweera to Jaffna, putting them up now is further evidence of a snap Presidential Election.

But some PA analysts are warning that the minority vote might this time swing the other way because the government has not delivered the goods as pledged in the 1994 manifesto.

In an apparent bid to prevent the UNP from regaining the minority vote, some government leaders have proposed that the PA should persuade a strong minority candidate also to come forward for the Presidential Election.

In the South, government leaders are well aware of the UNP's block vote. PA analysts have identified the Catholic belt from Wattala to Chilaw as an "uncertain" area that could swing back to the UNP.

In the hill country too, the Thondaman vote bank is known to be falling apart and it is likely that a majority of the estate workers would turn to the UNP. Thus a section of the CWC headed by P. Sathasivam is known to be tilting towards a re-link with the UNP with party leader Mr. Thondaman moving hither and thither finding himself in no mans land.

It is also pointed out many up-country Tamils are sympathetic towards the cause of the Tamils in the North and the UNP's call for unconditional talks could win thousands of plantation votes.

In this political climate, Mr. Thondaman would have to struggle for his own survival or come to an agreement with the UNP to sustain his position among the hill country Tamils.

The arithmetic of the Presidential Election shows that it would not be easy for President Kumaratunga to make it. But the follies of the UNP might see her through.

It is for these reasons that the PA is thinking of a minority candidate to edge out the UNP.

Among names mentioned are those of Minister M.H.M. Ashraff or former North-east Chief Minister Vartharaja Perumal.

The PA is seriously considering both, but it is unlikely that Mr. Ashraff would agree as there could be opposition to him even from within the PA.

It is clear that the SLMC and its leader Ashraff had made headway in the East with their demand for a South Eastern Muslim majority Council.

Former Minister and UNP stalwart A.C.S. Hameed who recently addressed a meeting of the co-ordinating Council of Muslims complimented the SLMC for its achievements.

But he also called upon the SLMC to reconsider its call for a separate Council for Muslims, saying such a move would adversely affect the Muslims living in other districts such as Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Mannar and Jaffna.

The SLMC shot back at Mr. Hameed, challenging him to come up with an alternative for the Muslims. As the war and the preparation for Presidential polls hot up, the Sirisena Cooray factor is also growing.

While the UNP sources attack Mr. Cooray as a government plant, he counters it by saying he could not be an instrument for a government that harassed and unlawfully detained him.

But the UNP leaders know that a link between Mr. Cooray and the Premadasa family could adversely affect the party, especially in Colombo, hence the UNP is now making an effort to mend fences with Ms. Hema Premadasa.

But the Cooray camp is also active. They are planning a demonstration outside Mr. Wickremesinghe's Cambridge Place office to demand Mr. Cooray be recalled to the party, though Mr. Cooray is outwardly saying he does not want to join.

UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe is known to have telephoned close associates such as Karu Jayasuriya and Rohitha Bogollagama for a briefing on the current position regarding Mr. Cooray and Ms. Premadasa.

He was told that the print media especially was trying to prop up Mr. Cooray.

Sources close to Mr. Cooray say he is determined to make a come-back with or without the UNP but he is playing his cards close to his chest.

The meeting between the two JVP leaders Somawansa Amarasinghe and Wimal Weerawansa in Singapore was another significant event of the week.

It was arranged after Colombo Mayor Karu Jayasuriya decided to send some Municipal Councillors for a training programme in Singapore.

Mr. Weerawansa, an MMC was also in the Singapore team. He made prior arrangements with Somawansa Amarasinghe and they met at a secret location while the others were on a shopping spree. During the 90-minutes meeting the two JVP leaders exchanged some documents relating to current political activities. Mr. Amarasinghe is reported to have handed over confidential documents about the mysterious deaths of JVP leader Rohana Wijeweera and the Military Wing leader Upatissa Gamanayake. JVP sources who revealed these details about the meeting were not ready to say what the documents contained.

On the economic front, the IMF is known to be exerting pressure on the government to extend the controversial GST into exempted areas, such as the retail trade.

But with the GST known to be eating into the PA vote bank more than any other factor, the government is likely to thank thrice before extending the tax, especially in view of a snap Presidential poll.

Thilan and that charge

Sources close to BOI Chief Thilan Wijesinghe, referring to a report in this column two Sundays ago, say that no charges have been made regarding five shops at Crescat owned by his wife nor were there charges of any preferential rental alleged to have been paid by her to Crescat.

There had also been, no charge made that FTZ products were being purchased at a low price. Nor was there a reference to a Lake Drive transaction.

All matters raised they say, were discussed in full and answered by him. He did not remain silent. Subsequent information made available to us contains these comments on behalf of Mr. Wijesinghe.

A question has however been raised in the meantime on the issue of whether the BOI monitoring committee would function as it should, in the possible event of an issue involving purchases made from BOI companies by Mrs. Wijesinghe.

A Deputy Minister we are informed had observed "You are holding such an important position in the country. Therefore I think you need to be a bit careful."

Mr. Wijesinghe however has maintained that he had made a full disclosure to the relevant authority, of his family's business interests including share holdings and whatever activities that were conducted by himself or his immediate family.

Situation Report

Editorial/Opinion Contents