By the early 1970's it was becoming clear that the United States has
suffered a severe erosion of hegemony... the constellation of political,
economic and military strength that allows a great power to work its will
on the rest of the world.
Business Week 5.11.1979
Clinton agonises.... no, no more. He can complete his second and final
four-year term as Commander-in-Chief of the world's sole superpower and
of course the western alliance NATO. Its Cold War rival, the Warsaw pact
is no more, with Poland, Russia's strongest ally, committed to market economics,
foreign investment, high interest rates.. and all this the outcome of a
confused economic strategy says the Economist. More important perhaps is
the character of the ruling alliance of 36 parties and groups!
Yes, the North Atlantic Alliance is the reality - the powerful weapon
in the hands of the United States and its major allies. Before the Soviet
implosion came the disintegration of the Soviet bloc, and its military
alliance. Moscow had to watch helplessly as President Bill Clinton, impeachment
or no impeachment, ordered NATO to "resolve" the ethnic conflict
in Kosovo where the Serbs represent the largest group.
And the Serbs are fellow Slavs, yet Boris Yeltsin's Russia - not Stalin's
Soviet Union, had to watch the United States led NATO play global cop.
Central Europe has a firm place in the history of war, world wars included.
The return of history is Russia.... the Russia of the Czars, and the Communist
Commissars, Lenin and more so Joseph Stalin have to accept the humble role
of spectator.
The present prime minister of Russia, Yevgeny Primakov is not only a
keen student of history - of Russia and the Middle East - but a proud patriot.
As an editor, columnist, and roving correspondent, he has an excellent
knowledge of the third world and the Arab world. This columnist has met
him in Cairo and Colombo non-aligned summits and in Moscow. Like most Russians,
he is a gifted chess player. Well, Prime Minister Primakov has made it
his move. He recommends a strategic triangle - China, Russia and India.
On his brief visit to New Delhi, he told the media that regional stability
could be greatly strengthened by a strategic triangle and its impact will
be felt beyond the region. "All three countries have reason to believe
that the United States is using the United Nations to pursue its own foreign
policy aims. Iraq has been singled out for relentless punishment."
When Mr. Yevgeny Primakov met the Indian BJP Prime Minister Vajpayee,
spoke of the time-tested Delhi-Moscow friendship but made no comment on
the tripartite structure favoured by the Russian leader which included
China, a country with which India has gone to war twice... the casus belli,
always disputed territory, though Tibet remains part of this acrimonious
debate.
Russia, India and China.. so far only Russia and China have agreements
on borders.
Will the US dominated unipolar world compel the three "giants",
Russia, China and India to advance towards Primakov's strategic triangle.
Smaller states in the Indian Ocean region and in the Korean peninsula(
one of the oldest conflict-torn areas) will sure encourage at least think-tanks,
if not the policy making establishment to examine the Primakov proposal
more closely.
As for NATO, its top strategy planners will surely examine the implications
of KOSOVO, the type of armed conflict that has not attracted much attention
from its experts. Awe-inspiring weaponry has not deterred thousands to
sacrifice their lives in defending or asserting group or ethnic identity.
Race and religion have replaced "isms" as the main cause of friction
within nation states and between neighbouring countries. Ethnic allegiance
needs no passports. Thus South Asia and the Balkans, which have contributed
a word to the Oxford Dictionary- Balkanise: to divide (an area) into small
antagonistic states.
Though it was Nehru's idea, the Indian leader was smart to let Tito
and Belgrade host the inaugural Non-Aligned summit Though a Marxist-Leninist,
he made independence, national identity, rather ideology the paramount
concern. The Soviet implosion may question the importance and relevance
of 'isms' today - but we can hardly underestimate the power, constructive
and destructive of nationalism, particularly when the nation challenges
the state.
Hulftsdorp Hill
Editorial/Opinion Contents
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