The Political Column

11th April 1999

Polls: a sweet and sour verdict

By our Political Correspondent

Taking the right lessons from the disaster of Wayamba, the elections to five provincial councils last Tuesday were conducted on a largely fair and peaceful basis.

PA leaders and propagandists are saying that much of the credit should go to President Kumaratunga but the independent media and civic action groups which highlighted and pressed for remedial action on the Wayamba fraud also played a major role in restoring the democratic process.

While Wayamba was irretrievably flawed, Tuesday's elections though much better was not without its bad side.

In some areas such as Hanuguranketha and Walapane in the Central province, substantial rigging was alleged and the perpetrators were said to be mainly PA.

Essentially, the election produced not a win-lose result but a lose-lose result. Though the PA scraped through with the largest number of seats in all five provinces it got an absolute majority only in the North-central Province. Though the victory for the PA in the eyes of most observers was not so good, it was as bad for the UNP which lost control of four provinces after 11 years and failed to take advantage of widespread discontent over the continuing war, violence and high cost of living and other problems.

In the Western province it was a close fight where the UNP won two of the three districts but a large majority in the Bandaranaike heartland of Gampaha helped the PA to win by virtue of two bonus seats in a political photo-finish.

For the UNP's charismatic chief ministerial candidate Karu Jayasuriya, it was a personal triumph but for the party it was so near but yet so far. Most UNPers say that Mr. Jayasuriya lifted the UNP campaign to the winning position rather than the UNP lifting him to be the chief minister of the Western province.

The UNP's narrow defeat in the Western province is attributed largely to what was seen as a demoralised and lukewarm campaign in some areas of the coastal belt north of Colombo.

Analysts say that if a greater effort had been put into the UNP campaign in areas such as Ja-ela, Wattala, Katana and Divulapitiya which have often been predominantly UNP, the PA majority in the Gampaha district could have been substantially reduced. They say that even in areas such as Attanagalla and Gampaha where the PA is strong, the UNP could have got more votes if a better campaign had been launched.

The outcome in the Gampaha district was one of the topics discussed at a party hosted by the US deputy chief of mission in Colombo on Thursday. Among those present were UNP's Tyronne Fernando and its Gampaha district campaign manager Rohitha Bogollagama. Many well-wishers congratulated Mr. Bogollagama for his efforts in reducing the PA majority in the Gampaha district substantially. But he and Opposition UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe have realised that an extra effort in Gampaha could have further reduced the PA majority there and helped clinch the vital Western Province as a launch pad for the UNP's national election campaign.

Some UNP insiders also say there were attempts from within to undermine Mr. Jayasuriya's campaign in the Gampaha district. They point out that a motorcade he had planned through Wattala, Ja-ela, Negombo and Katana areas was called off on the basis there was a threat to his life. But there could have been other reasons also. In the Colombo district, analysts say the turnout was lower than in other areas partly because of the heavy rain and partly because most independent voters were disillusioned with both major parties. Although the President gave repeated orders for a free and fair election, it appears that some elements in the PA again violated her orders. But overall, the elections were free and fair and the UNP would have little to complain about.

One significant incident was an attack at Attidiya on a vehicle carrying Mr. Jayasuriya. A vehicle used by the attackers reportedly belonged to the National Paper Company head office in Colombo. On the election day Mr. Wickremesinghe made three serious complaints to the election monitoring secretariat set up by the all-party election monitoring committee. The monitoring committee at a meeting on April 2 had decided that Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar should head the secretariat. But Mr. Kadirgamar was in Mozambique at the time the decision was taken. He learnt about his appointment when he read it in The Sunday Times of April 4 on his return to the country from Mozambique. On Monday on the eve of the elections, Mr. Wickremesinghe called Mr. Kadirgamar and asked him about the election-monitoring secretariat. Mr. Kadirgamar's reply was that he had not been informed officially. Mr. Wickremesinghe thereafter gave the phone to Mr. Jayasuriya who told the minister that it was agreed at the meeting of April 2 that he should head the secretariat. The same night, Mr. Kadirgamar telephoned the defence secretary and the President's secretary. He was told that the centre would function at Ratnasiri Wickremanayake's ministry and ex-DIG Gamini Gunawardene would be there to work under him.

On Tuesday morning, Mr. Kadirgamar came to the secretariat after casting his vote and got it going.

But who monitored what and who was right is still not known. Besides the secretariat, we also saw three other bodies – PAFFREL, the CMEV and the PA Polls Watch group – monitoring the elections and giving different tolls or interpretations and sometimes even hitting at each other.

The voting pattern also sends a warning to President Kumaratunga that the PA is on the decline, especially when compared to the landslide of 1994 elections. The PA victory was largely due to the personal charisma of President Kumaratunga but there were hardly any other dynamic figures or crowd pullers on the PA stage. It was similar to Karu Jayasuriya charisma in the Colombo district with the voters giving him a thumping 250,000 preference votes in response to his new style of honest politics and hard work, besides his clean image unconnected to the UNP's terrible past.

On Wednesday soon after all the results were officially announced, Mr. Jayasuriya decided to resign from his widely acclaimed mayorship of Colombo and take up the new post as leader of the opposition in the Western Provincial Council.

Though any PA administration in the WPC is likely to be fragile and depend on the support of small parties, Mr. Jayasuriya is expected to pursue a path of cooperation rather than confrontation. He is likely to offer stability rather than acting to undermine or topple the council.

A significant feature of the April 6 election was the emergence of JVP as a third force in the making with the party getting seats in all five provinces and holding a kingmaker card in the Western province.

The JVP after being bloodied and battered in the reign of terror of 1988-89, has risen with a positive and bold image to make its presence felt in the political scene. With the rise of the JVP, the traditional left – mainly the LSSP and the CP which are with the PA - is cutting sorry figure and may fade into political oblivion. With the possibility that the JVP might even form a government in the new millennium, the PA and the UNP are likely to take steps to meet this challenge. The UNP is reported to be considering a radical youth wing to counter the JVP.

As for the JVP itself, it needs to review its perception in the light of realities of globalisation and liberalization of international economic policies. The JVP would also have to come out with clear cut principles on democratic multi-party politics as opposed to discredited leftwing dictatorial trends if it wishes to make an overall impact on the people of Sri Lanka.

Another feature of Tuesday's poll was the re-emergence of S. Thondaman though in a new garb. Mr. Thondaman's Ceylon Workers' Congress and several other estate unions formed a coalition of the people of Indian origin. But since they could not register in time, they contested under the name and symbol of the National Union of Workers which had already been registered. The performance of this new coalition was creditable, compelling both the PA and the UNP to think again on how they could win Mr. Thondaman's support for provincial administration and also for national office.

The UNP in particular had insisted it would not be manipulated by minority parties. But party analysts now believe that with Mr. Thondaman's support the UNP would not have lost the Central, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces.

Many in the rank and file of the UNP in the aftermath of the April 6 setback believe that heads must roll for the party to make progress. They believe the hierarchy must put party and national interest before personal concerns

They recall the Senanayake, Kotelawala and Jayewardene days when the massive countrywide structure and organisation of the party was controlled by a general secretary who was not a parliamentarian. This enabled the general secretary to work wholly in the interest of the party without having to promote his own personal political interest. But the trend was changed by the Premadasa administration. Now many senior UNPers feel the party structure should be revamped to be more in line with the earlier model. These UNP analysts say the party hierarchy instead of playing around with statistics and insignificant victories or defeats in non-existent electorates should face the hard reality that it was a five-nil defeat. This should propel them to go to the electorate and the rural masses especially, to regain the floating vote which is vital to win any national election.

As for the PA, the victory was so small that it is not likely to lead to any snap general elections. Government leaders are now likely to sit back and ponder on what is happening to the massive vote it received in 1994.

Playing the card of the ills and evils of the UNP regime is no longer valid among the people. The war is dragging on, the economy on a downward trend and the cost of living is unbearable for most people. These problems and issues need to be addressed and remedied without blaming and hammering the UNP for everything.

In the 1994 presidential elections, the PA got more than 62 percent of the popular vote, now it is down to 43. The near 20 percent – meaning more than a million voters – who turned away from the PA either did not go to vote or deliberately spoilt their votes. Some of them turned to the JVP or other radical parties but few to the UNP that got only its traditional block vote. That means lakhs of people are disappointed with both major parties and do not have a credible alternative to turn to. This is the dangerous trend that needs to be studied carefully, lest the people are driven away from democratic politics.

The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress was also a major loser at the provincial elections. Party analysts say the SLMC won a seat only in the Kalutara district where it contested on its own. In all other districts where it contested with the PA, the SLMC got votes but not a single seat. Party sources say it is likely that the SLMC would follow the Thondaman style and go it alone, playing the role of a power broker with the seats it gets

The setback also intensified the conflict between the SLMC and the Muslim wing of the SLFP. SLMC sources are blaming Minister A. H. M. Fowzie for the defeat of the PA in the Colombo district, especially in the Colombo Central and other areas where there is a large Muslim vote. They also claimed that Mr. Fowzie's son, Nauzer, was apparently able to muster votes only from Muslim areas and had no multi-ethnic appeal, which is necessary for national office.

In a post-election move, President Kumaratunga met ministers, PA district leaders on Thursday to analyse the results. They discussed various options in the WPC and three other councils where the PA would need the support of other parties to form a stable administration.

One possible solution is the executive committee system proposed in the draft constitution. This would allow multi-party administration with the chief minister from the majority party and cabinet representation for leaders of other parties too.

In the Central Province, the UNP though it is only the second largest single party could still form the administration if it gets Mr. Thondaman's support. But party leader Mr. Wickremesinghe is said to be reluctant to move in this direction despite appeals by several members, including the remanded parliamentarian Abdul Cader who telephoned from jail. Mr. Wickremesinghe feels the party should wait and see what the PA does in the Central Province.

In the meantime some cabinet Ministers who had agreed to be chief ministers at the beginning of the election campaign are now reported to be backing due to the complex and uncertain situation in the Central, Sabaragamuwa and Uva Provinces.

Accordingly Nandimittra Ekanayake who was to be named as the chief minister for the Central Province is likely to back out. There is also a move in Uva to promote Dilan Perera instead of Deputy Minister Samaraweera Weeravanni as chief minister.

Clarification: In response to certain disclosures made in this column last week, Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike has informed us she did not canvass for her brother Clifford Ratwatte at the controversial elections to the Board of Control for Cricket in Sri Lanka.

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