THE PRESIDENCY

• Living together in a divided house
• Consensus politics comes with hiccups
• Our man to address security seminar in Hawaii 

Living together in a divided house

This was indeed one of the campaign themes of President Kumaratunga. Hers was an all-powerful Presidency designed by the ingenious J. R. Jayewardene, she argued on the campaign trail. She could do as she pleased and call upon her choice- not necessarily Ranil Wickremesinghe- to become the Premier. She could also pick her ministers and arrogate to herself as many portfolios as she liked.

What President Kumaratunga was telling the electorate was that whoever won at the polls, she could waive the rules and rule the waves-so it would be better for the country if it endorsed a PA regime. But, perhaps tired of Kumaratunga's rhetoric and disillusioned with a stagnant economy and a protracted war, the masses thought otherwise.

The results surprised even the UNF: it could muster a simple majority even without the support of the Tamil parties. But there was considerable trepidation within the UNF hierarchy. Would the President concede what was constitutionally her right, without a fight? Or, would it lead to another war of attrition between the UNF and the PA?

Those in the UNF camp say that their fears were justified. After all, ever since Rauff Hakeem was sacked from the Cabinet, President Kumaratunga tried every trick in the book- and a few more- to retain a PA government: Parliament was prorogued, a Referendum was announced and then cancelled, and a deal was struck with the JVP. In the President's own words- and her inimitable style- she said she would get together with the devil, to carry on the government: "Aanduwa geniyanna, api mona yakka ekka hari ekkahu wenawa_"

And the Constitution offered no respite for the UNF either- even if it was devised by J. R. Jayewardene. The President, it said, shall invite whom the President believed enjoyed the confidence of Parliament to be Prime Minister; ministers were appointed by the President, albeit in consultation with the Prime Minister. Clearly, those who founded the 1978 Constitution had not been considering the possibility of the executive and the legislature being from different parties- ah, JRJ would never have allowed that!

In the aftermath of the election, the think tanks in both camps were busy. The President herself was bitter and feeling let down that the verdict had not gone her way. She strongly and genuinely believed that she had done the best for the country and that she still offered the best hope for the nation. How could the people think otherwise, she asked her confidants.

Then of course was the question as to what she should do. She could throw in the towel, relinquish all responsibilities and say she would continue in office just as D. B. Wijetunge did in 1994, paying mere lip service to the Presidency. Or, she could refuse to play ball and asserting her constitutional rights insist that Ranil Wickremesinghe- whom the media was already touting as Prime Minister-elect- does what she says and not vice versa.

Knowing President Kumaratunga to be temperamental rather than timid and daring rather than diffident those in the UNF, especially the dissidents were anxious that the Prime Minister be declared and sworn in and a new Cabinet formed as quickly as possible. It was at about this time that there was speculation President Kumaratunga would not relinquish the Defence portfolio and S. B. Dissanayake responded in characteristic style saying he would "bring the people to the streets and surround President's House", if the need arose.

This threat was not taken lightly and the President did confer with her security advisors and the consensus was that if such an incident did occur, the armed forces would find it difficult to contain the protests using aggressive means as it could then lead to a tragedy of catastrophic proportions, inciting riots elsewhere in the country which already was under a precautionary curfew.

Those were tense moments indeed with tenuous arguments being tendered to and fro. Yet, saner counsel did prevail, on both sides. President Kumaratunga, her closest advisors say, had no regrets whatsoever about delegating the Cabinet portfolios to the UNF-except for Defence, where she held strong reservations, based partly on security concerns and the incidents of post-election violence which were continuing unabated. However, once that was conceded after some persuasion, the only hiccup was the Samurdhi portfolio, which the President was adamant, should not be given to S. B. Dissanayake and, on this issue, it was the turn of Premier Ranil Wickreme-singhe to give in.

At the end of the week the political landscape was becoming clearer, the dust having finally settled after the hustings. Sri Lanka is set to begin an era of what is called, perhaps for the want of a better word, cohabitation. An editorialist summed up the situation succinctly when he said it was a shot-gun marriage: neither party was keen on the arrangement, but they had no real choice but to live together.

The more liberal among our politicians see this as the perfect platform for power-sharing, a system of checks and balances which could offset the negative effects of the two-party system which has thwarted attempts to resolve the ethnic question even after fifty years of independence. The more skeptical however will simply not believe that the President and the Prime Minister can work together, given the hitherto acerbic relationship between the two.

Only time will give a definite answer to this issue but it is pertinent at this juncture to reflect on the French system of government which probably is the closest in the world to the predicament Sri Lanka's leaders find themselves in.

When General Charles de Gaulle enacted the fifth Republican Constitution in France in 1958 he was looking to strengthen the hands of the Executive President, trying to insulate himself from electoral pressures that had buffeted previous leaders. It is no co-incidence that Sri Lanka's 1978 Constitution is based on similar lines: JRJ readily confessed to be an admirer of de Gaullian strategy. The cardinal principle of both Constitutions is that almost all executive power is vested in the elected President who however has to rely on a legislature-also elected directly by the people- to implement those powers in order to govern.

Even de Gaulle however, failed to anticipate that two political parties could be dispensing executive and legislative powers. That did indeed happen in France in 1986 and then came the concept of 'co-habitation', that catchword now doing the political rounds of Colombo: Francois Mitterand was President and Jacques Chirac was Prime Minister.

The comparison may sound uncannily similar but students of French politics recall that when Chirac submitted his Cabinet to Mitterand for formal approval, Mitterand objected to three prospective ministers and most believed the objections were personal rather than on principle. Chirac however stood down and agreed to withdraw the names averting a stand-off.

Since then, France has experienced political co-habitation between the leftist and rightist parties twice more, in 1993 and then in 1997. These periods have never been easy, have been clouded by uncertainty and mistrust at times but that country has survived and prospered. What then, are the ingredients of this success against the odds?

It appears to the concerned observer that in the French system there has been firstly, even if through sheer necessity, a spirit of give and take between the President and the Prime Minister. Secondly, there is a thin dividing line, though not demarcated as such in the Constitution, which neither the President nor the Prime Minister is willing to breach by poaching into the other's territory. Here though, there is a difference between Paris and Colombo: the French Constitution specifies the functions of the Prime Minister to some extent, saying he shall run the government; in Sri Lanka the Premier has virtually no powers vested in him through the Constitution.

Given this lacuna, many are the issues that can arise. In theory, and according to the Constitution, it is the President who appoints the commanders of the armed forces, decides on foreign policy and represents the country on ceremonial occasions as head of state and head of government. Would a UNF government sit back and watch while President Kumaratunga does all this on her own? That is unlikely but the best solution is for the President to act in consultation with her Prime Minister and those closest to her say that she has every intention of doing so.

So, perhaps President Kumaratunga will continue to chair the National Security Council but Defence Minister Tilak Marapana will participate actively. The President could always advise Premier Wickremesinghe and Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando about her concerns regarding their upcoming visit to India. And at the forthcoming SAARC conference, the UNF government could accord President Kumaratunga her due role as Sri Lanka's head of government.

Is this being overly optimistic? No, say the President's advisors. The President invited Ranil Wickremesinghe for discussions regarding the formation of the new government well before all the election results were officially declared; those talks were always cordial and the tone and tenor of the President's interactions with the UNF so far have given hope that all this could become a reality.

An important factor, judging from the French experience, is the public perception and reaction to the process of cohabitation. There, while there may be rumblings of dissent in both political camps, rival leaders are careful to be seen smiling and back-slapping each other before the cameras to avoid being identified by the media and the voter as the troublemaker and aggressor making life uneasy in the co-habitation arrangement.

It may be too premature to pass judgment on the Sri Lankan scenario, but there is reason to believe that this process will operate here as well. When a decision was taken to debar a private television network from the swearing-in of the Premier and to withhold live coverage of the event, it was roundly condemned and President Kumaratunga had to take the flak though it was not certain that the decision was hers. Why should the nation be deprived of live coverage of a Prime Minister being sworn in, asked one newspaper incredulously, when it is forced to watch the President laying wreaths at her parents' tomb, live on state television? Too harsh a rebuke perhaps, but the message is clear.

Similarly, when S. B. Dissanayake announced he would regain the Samurdhi portfolio in two weeks by swearing-in before the Premier-and not the President- there was widespread disapproval and resentment that personal issues apart, the office of the President was being ridiculed.

This then is a new political experience for this country. The voters- and a vast majority of them- have in all their collective wisdom thrust cohabitation at their political masters. The President and the Prime Minister will no doubt realise that in both camps there will be a core group which will be baying for the blood of their rivals. Their task therefore will be not only to interact with each other reasonably for the purpose of good governance and political stability but also to keep these political animals in check, lest they prey on each other. This will be no easy task because this, by the way, is Colombo and not Paris where political violence and corruption is now a way of life.

What then will make the system work? In the words of the much respected former Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar- who was a tower of strength to the President over the last few weeks- as the French say, "with sound policies, cool heads and good judgment". After all, President Chandrika Kumaratunga prides herself on being a student of politics at Sorbonne. Then, perhaps now is the time for her to look up her dog-eared copy of the French Constitution and figure out how exactly the French dealt with a seemingly uncomfortable way of governance. And she must be thankful that on the other side of the political divide she finds herself confronted by Ranil Wickremesinghe- and not Ranasinghe Premadasa or even J. R. Jayewardene!

It is indeed a curious irony that JRJ declared triumphantly that the only thing he couldn't do under the executive presidency was to make a male into a female and President Premadasa echoed his sentiments saying that the Premier under the same system was merely a peon. Today the 'peon' is required to take on the task of decision making while the executive president- transformed from male to female- has to take a backseat and reflect upon how best to confront the situation.

But then in a democracy, if the voice of the people is the voice of God, so be it.

Consensus politics comes with hiccups

Previous overtures at a national government, even when the chips were down for the PA government were dismissed, and the President preferred to strike a deal with the JVP once accused by herself of killing her husband Vijaya Kumaratunga, rather than do business with the UNF. So naturally, when the people voted last week re-defining her role as undisputed head of government, she had no option but to abide by the rules.

The verdict was clear leaving no room for ambiguity. The UNF, which included the Muslim Congress whom she sacked unceremoniously from her Cabinet, and defectors from her party, had won an overall majority. Her own Peoples Alliance had dropped from 102 seats to 77, nowhere close to even making a fight of it.

As the results came in, it became clear that the President had to call the UNF leader and her bete noire, Ranil Wickremesinghe to become her prime minister.

Constitutionally the President is the head of state and head of government. She is the one who appoints the Cabinet of ministers. If she wanted, she could argue that she has a mandate, equally, from the people in an election conducted in December 1999, not too long ago, and therefore the sovereign power of the people to run the executive arm of government was very much with her.

But, the reality was implicit. The people had spoken. They wanted her government out of office and Ranil Wickremesinghe given a chance. Her own prime minister Ratnasiri Wickramanayake was consulted, so was her trusted foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar. The third to be asked was a senior lawyer R.K.W. Goonasekera. All three agreed, that Mr. Wickremesinghe had to be invited to become the prime minister.

And what of the Cabinet? Who was to choose its ministers? The unanimous opinion was for Mr. Wickremesinghe to be given that opportunity as well. What of the Defence Ministry? Now, there came the first serious problem. President Kumaratunga was down, but did not want to be out. Compounding the problem was the anti-PA blood-letting by UNF supporters in the provinces, especially in the Kandy area. Forty eight people had died before the votes could be counted. State sponsored thuggery was unleashed on UNF sympathisers. Revenge was upper-most in the minds of the victors.

To add salt to the wounds, President Kumaratunga's bitterest foe, her one-time closest political ally, S.B. Dissanayake had announced that he would lead some hundreds of thousands of people to President's House asking her to quit the Defence Ministry.

The new prime minister has many faults. He is also patient to a fault. The 52 year old Mr. Wickremesinghe has won and lost many times over. He knew that the President was crest-fallen and sulking. The world had collapsed for her. She needed to be handled gently, but firmly.

At the first meeting on December 7, it was merely for formalities. He was asked to be her prime minister, and asked when he wanted to take his oaths. Mr. Wickremesinghe advised himself not to stir the pot. At the second meeting, December 8, the swearing-in ceremony, Mr. Wickremesinghe decided again, not to bring up the subject. Except that she did, in passing, when they were having tea after the ceremony. She referred to the proposed march and said her guards would "open fire" on them if they came anywhere near President's House. Mr. Wickremesinghe re-assured a clearly besieged President that there would be no such demonstration.

The third meeting was fixed for December 10, but the President had put it off for December 11. She went ahead summoning the new Parliament by asking the JVP and not Mr. Wickremesinghe's UNF, which had the majority in Parliament, By now, Mr. Wickremesinghe was getting angry. Tempers were frayed all around. Losing MPs from the President's party were pumping her up with tales of woe, of the violence unleashed on their party workers, urging her not to give the all-important Defence Ministry.

At the PA parliamentary group meeting on the morning of December 11, President Kumaratunga thundered to dispirited faithfuls, that the time had come to stand up and fight back. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe went in this hostile environment to see the President sharp at 4, the appointed time that afternoon. She kept him waiting for 15 minutes, but excellent by her standards. There they discussed the Cabinet he proposed, including his nominee for Defence Minister. The outcome was still uncertain. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe believed he had clinched the deal.

The 3,000 strong controversy-riddled Presidential Security Division was to be under her. She would also remain commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Indian High Commissioner Gopal Gandhi who had met President Kumaratunga immediately thereafter, and used his pursuasive ways to impress upon the President of a friendly country to avoid confrontation, however, did not share the impression the prime minister entertained. President Kumaratunga seemed stubborn, though there were signs that she may be persuaded.

The next morning, December 12 Messrs. Wickramanayake, Kadirgamar and two other ex-ministers met President Kumaratunga and went through the motions once again. The Prime Minister was coming to see her at 11.30 a.m. and a decision had to be reached. At the 11th hour of the 12th of December, President Kumaratunga agreed to give up the Defence Ministry. She insisted that she will not swear-in her now sworn enemy, S.B. Dissanayake as minister in charge of Samurdhi affairs.

She had produced the Auditor General's report to Mr. Wickremesinghe showing corruption by Mr. Dissanayake as her own Minister of Samurdhi affairs.Everyone knew that this was not the real. Mr. Wickremesinghe said he would appoint a parliamentary select committee to find whether Mr. Dissanayake was guilty or not, but she was not impressed. Neither the PA ex-ministers, nor Mr. Wickremesinghe wanted to ride their luck too far. They gave in on that, as she had given on the Defence Ministry.

The swearing-in took place as scheduled, with Mr. Wickremesinghe having his way with appointing his own Defence Minister, while Ms. Kumaratunga had her own way by refusing to appoint Mr. Dissanayake as Minister of Samurdhi Affairs. The give-and-take of cohibitation was beginning to get entrenched. On December 13, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe pressed the issue further. As he had promised, he asked his own Defence Minister, former Attorney General Tilak Marapana to call on the President, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

It appeared to be a kindly gesture to assuage President Kumaratunga's suspicions that she would be relegated to the role of a ceremonial head of state, a figure-head with no role to play in the country's political affairs. Governments may come and governments may go - President Kumaratunga has not changed her ways. She was 45 minutes late for the appointment with her Defence Minister. And when she arrived, she greeted Mr. Marapana, and then looking startled, said, "Oh!, I'm sorry, I didn't know you had also come", to her Prime Minister.

Our man to address security seminar in Hawaii 

The theme of this year's seminar to be held at the University of Hawaii's East-West Center in Honolulu is "Turmoil Across Asia: Karachi to Kamchatka."

Athas, whose weekly "Situation Report" is one of the most widely -read columns in the overseas internet edition of The Sunday Times, will speak on "Sri Lanka - the Forgotten War".

The five-day professional Fellowship Seminar is for senior journalists from East Asia, South-east and South Asia, Australia, Canada, Russia and the United States.

The underlying theme of the annual seminar has been revised this year in the context of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.

Speakers and discussion leaders at the seminar - scheduled to take place from today till December 21 - will include leading military analysts from the Asia Pacific Centre for Security Studies, the East-West Center, the Pacific Forum/Centre for Strategic and International Studies at the University of Hawaii, the US Pacific Command and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

The critical issues to be discussed include: Terror: Causes and Counter; Terror: Bugs and Gas; Terror: Loose Nukes; Central Asia: new Arena for Conflict; China: Benign or Bellicose?; India: Emerging Power; Nuclear Threats: Farewell to Arms Control? and Japan: Passive and Pacifist.