CoL: Higher and higher
By Malik Gunatilleke
The plight of the consumer keeps getting worse with prices of gas, electricity, fuel and other items increasing day-by-day while a chain reaction has been set off by the depreciation of the Rupee.
Transport costs, food prices sharply shot up during the week with a plain-tea going up by Rs. 2.50, a string-hopper by 50 cts and an average lunch packet up by Rs. 20.
But consumers are in for more heartburn as domestic gas cylinder suppliers are haggling with the government for a further increase and the CEB also warning of a hike, citing additional costs incurred following fuel price increase as reasons.
The depreciation of the rupee as against major foreign currencies is further aggravating the situation with prices of all imported items including vehicle spares, food items, electronic items increasing in price.
The price increase is being felt mostly by the middle-class income groups with their earnings being limited.
A loaf of bread has increased by three rupees while the price hike in milk foods is imminent. One brand will be increasing the price of a packet of 450 grams by Rs. 30 with immediate effect. One of the main concerns has been the rising fuel price which has been increased thrice within five weeks, with a warning from the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) Chairman, Asantha de Mel that there may be further hikes depending on world market prices.
Vegetables, office van and trishaw charges have all increased within the last week.
Officer transport service fares have gone up by Rs. 200 to 300 per passenger. Charges from Wattala to Colombo have been increased from Rs. 1,300 to 1,500.
Lorry owners transporting vegetables from areas such as Nuwara Eliya and Dambulla to Colombo and those transporting goods from Colombo to outstations have also upped their fees.Meanwhile Shell Gas is pushing hard for a further increase.
The government approved an increase of Rs. 38 on a Shell Gas cylinder making it Rs.998 with immediate effect on May 14, after blaming the media for creating an artificial shortage by reporting about the impending increase. The prices of a Laugfs Gas cylinder was also increased by Rs. 28 making it Rs.967.
However Shell Gas Lanka Ltd. (SGLL) is battling hard to increase the price of a cylinder by Rs.161.
Shell Finance Director Rimoe Saldin said they were holding talks with the Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA) on a further increase to reduce the losses incurred by the company.
He said the company had lost over Rs.767 million over the past three years due to price control and they were concerned as to how they would continue to operate with such heavy losses.
“We import and distribute Liquefied Petroleum Gas and the import costs depend on world market prices and the exchange rate. If prices of petroleum products like Petrol and Diesel move with world market prices, why not LPG? These all come from the same source,” he argued.
The CEB too has applied for an increase in electricity tariffs to compensate for the price hike in diesel.
The CEB is granted a litre of diesel at a concessionary rate of Rs. 55 by the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) but with the increase in fuel prices the CPC had raised the price to Rs. 64 a litre.
CEB officials say this increase has caused them a loss of about Rs.20 million prompting them to ask the government for a re-evaluation of electricity tariffs.
Another sector that has been hit by the recent fuel hikes is the fishing industry.
Herman Kumara, president, National Fisheries Solidarity Movement (NFSM), complained that it was the middle-man who profited the most as they raised the price of fish.
Meanwhile, the bakers are complaining that the increase in bread prices would only mean that consumers would switch to a cheaper alternative such as rice as bread would soon be classed as a luxury item.
Parakrama Dassanayake, president Bakery Owner’s Association said consumers are yet to feel the full effect of the increase in wheat prices.
“Bakeries have not yet increased the prices of other wheat based food items, but once they do consumers may switch to alternative food types,” he said.
The picture gets even gloomier for the consumer as a bus fare hike will come in to effect from July.
Gemunu Wijeyratne, president, Private Bus Owners’ Association (PBOA) said he estimated an increase of about 15%, as the cost of living had increased dramatically since last July.
“Many people are under the impression that the PBOA is pushing for an unjust bus fare hike, but this is our annual hike and it is calculated by the government,” he said.
Trade, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Bandula Gunawardena said the government is unable to control the price increases in fuel, which he says has been the root cause for the sudden inflation.
“However, the government is working on controlling prices of essential items so that the burden placed on the consumer maybe minimised,” he said.Minister Gunawardena said that prices of essential items such as sugar and some vegetables had reduced considerably and these have reduced the cost of living price index by 5% since January 2007.
Economists forecast bleak days ahead |
By Chathuri Dissanayake
The cost of living will climb even higher in the next few months, according to the Department of Census and Statistics.
The upward trend is due to the scarcity of locally grown vegetables, as it is the off season, said D. C. A. Gunawardena Director of Prices and Wages division at the Department.
"The off season for some of the locally grown vegetables begins in May and the surcharge imposed on vegetable imports to protect the farmers will be added to the price. The increase in oil prices will cause prices to increase further," Mr. Gunawardena said.
On the other hand, Pettah merchants claim that the prices of imported food commodities had been stable due to the suspension of import duty in April. However, they warn that the prices would increase sharply if customs duties are re-imposed.
However there may be more to the price increase. According to Mr. Gunawardena there may be hidden market forces behind the huge price increases.
"There is a vast difference between the cost of production and the market price even when the cost of wastage and travelling is included. So there might be other unexplained reasons for the disparity," he said.
Meanwhile economists have warned that the rising cost of living would have dire effects on the country's economy. As a result of the mounting prices inflation would go up which would depreciate the face value of the Rupee further which means more rupees would be needed to maintain the same standards of living.
"The cost of living is like a cancer. It affects all aspects of the economy. The rising cost of living would have a negative impact on all macro factors of the country's economy. The country being a price taker will lose competitiveness in the market as the cost of production goes up along with the rising costs," said Dr. R. Bandara, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, at the University of Colombo.
The rising cost of living will increase the wage demands of the workers, thus increasing the cost of production for local industries. The local producers and manufacturers will be forced to increase the price of output to cover the rise in the cost of production. This will further increase the prices of goods and services, making way for the price-wage spiral while at the same time increasing the demand for imports as the relative price of imports would fall, said J.D. Bandaranayake Vice chairman, Chamber of Commerce.
Further high inflation rates would push interest rates up which may discourage investment. This would lead to a rise in the budget deficit as increase in interest rates would impact on government interest expenditure.
Painting a gloomy picture Mr. Bandaranayake warned that, inflation, if allowed to rise to very high levels coud have a destabilising effect on the economy. This would lead to a reduction in investment, increase in wage rates; a fall in demand for local products and the possible closure of firms. All these will lead to unemployment in the country. Drop in economic activity will lead to lower living standards, reduced tax revenues and increased government expenditure. |
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