Rapid increase of COVID-19 cases in two weeks if social distancing is not practiced: GMOA warns

The Government Medical Officers’ Association (GMOA) warned today that if social distancing is not carried out, the number of Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases will face a rapid increase in near future, a statement from the body said. “Thus if the citizens of Sri Lanka follow through with the health advice that is given, we can assume that there will be a favorable outcome in the subsequent two weeks,”

“If health advisories are not followed through by the public,  health care workers would have to be subject to quarantine due to exposure to infected persons and thus cause a considerable decline in human resources,”GMOA added.

Of the 101 Confirmed cases, 32 are from those who arrived at the airport and quarantined directly and 69 from the community. Therefore, GMOA estimated that it can be technically assumed that at present, 550 infected individuals are circulating within the population. A portion of this 550 maybe under either in quarantine centers or under home quarantine. [ (101-32) x 8 = 552]

“These 550 possible patients have had a total of 19,000 contacts. As such, the Epidemiology unit, Military Intelligence, and the Administrative officers are currently actively involved in tracing these contacts. Since this cohort of 18,000 individuals may be at present spread throughout the island, Sri Lanka  is at risk. The districts of Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, and Puttalam can be identified as high-risk areas,” the statement warned.

The GMOA also predicted that if movement freely takes place (no social distancing), one individual can infect 500 others within 30days; in 50% social distancing, one individual can infect 15 others, thus by 70% social distancing the ability to infect others is 2.5 per one infected person within 30days.

As of today, 102 patients are receiving treatment for COVID 19. 2 patients are currently receiving ICU care, and two patients have fully recovered.