US Elections; Super Tuesday results

After Super Tuesday, a day in which most primaries are held and results come in, a few things are clear.

One, that while Bernie Sanders did manage to gather support during the early caucuses and primaries and leverage himself into being a frontrunner for the party, after the recent results from the Super Tuesday primaries, the Democratic party is one again rallying behind the former vice president, Joe Biden, as their best hope for defeating Republican President Donald Trump in November.

Two, that because support is split between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, it seems the voting base for the Democratic party is truly fractured which ultimately only bodes well for Trump, and him potentially winning re-election.

In a March 4-5 poll, released on Thursday, 55% of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they would support Biden for the Democratic nomination if the only other choice was U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Another 45% said they would vote for Sanders.

When the poll asked which of the presidential contenders is the most electable, twice as many Democrats picked Biden as those who picked Sanders. Last week, the poll showed Sanders was considered the most electable candidate.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English throughout the United States, and gathered responses from 568 registered Democrats and independents. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 5 percentage points.

Biden’s rebound began with winning in Saturday’s South Carolina primary and ultimately by emerging from Super Tuesday with wins in 10 of the 14 state primaries. He also received the endorsements of fellow moderate candidates Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg as they stepped out of the race.

The next Democratic primaries will be held next Tuesday in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Washington state. North Dakota will hold caucuses on that day.

While Biden has taken the lead with the most delegates backing him, Sanders is in second. What this means for the Democratic party is a split between voter groups, generally younger more progressive votes backing Sanders while older more moderate votes backing Biden.

At the moment this is a race to determine which candidate within the Democratic party will run on the ticket against the Republicans (where Trump stands uncontested). If it comes down to it a split voter base will often result in poor turnout, potentially with independent never-Bernie voters (who stand strongly against his socialist policies) switching to support Trump, or anti-Biden independents and progressive democratic voters who would choose not to vote during the upcoming elections rather than support a candidate they dislike.

At the moment, while the Democratic party is battling it out, Trump voters that had no need to vote during the Republican primaries (as Trump is the incumbent) turned out en mass, a turnout for a single candidate that was notably higher than the turnout for Democratic candidates.

According to Rasmussen, Trump is currently polling at 48% approval rating, however as stated, within the Republican party there is a solidified base of support for him compared to the split base within the Democratic party.

Sources (RETUERS, FOX, GALLUP POLLS, RASMUSEN)