’’Greater South Asia’’ will be a growth pole in Asia - Ranil

Greater South Asia, constituting the Indian Ocean Countries, will be a growth pole in Asia and there are already synergies in the growing regional trade, former President Ranil Wickremesinghe said. 

In his address to the 'Nxt in South Asia' conclave, Mr Wickremesinghe added that this greater South Asia is a landmass spreading from India to Vietnam, which has centuries of common cultures and trading patterns. A Greater South Asia stretching beyond the Indian Ocean should not be an issue.  

"Let me repeat, as power shifts to Asia, we must determine our regional constructs using our own criteria," he emphasised. 

Following is the full speech delivered by Mr Wickremesinghe:

When I received the invitation to address on the topic ‘Nxt in South Asia’, I was reminded of a Foreign Affairs Magazine article:  

“The End of South Asia:  A Region in Name Only”. 

This led me to the question: What is South Asia?  It is a very recent construct – even the terminology is Western.

You do not come across this term in any of the national languages of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

The concept of South Asia can be tracked back to World War II. During to the Quebec Conference,

where President Franklin D Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill approved a Memorandum by the joint Chiefs of Staff to create a combined military command for this area —

separate from the Pacific. The area included the Indian Ocean and the land masses up to Vietnam was given a new name –

The South East Asia Command. Sri Lanka became its Head Quarters.

This term South East Asia was utilized again in 1968, when an Economic Association for the region was formed.

At this time Sri Lanka was included into South East Asia. This new region was branded South East Asia.

When I was Sri Lanka’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, in 1977, Gen. Ziaur Rahman, the President of Bangladesh proposed establishing a Regional Association. By then Sri Lanka’s re-application and Bangladesh’s application to join ASEAN had been turned down.

Therefore, Presidents Rahman and Jayewardene had discussions during the former’s state visit to Colombo in 1979; to flesh out the proposals for Regional Cooperation. By 1983,  an agreement was reached to establish a Regional Association and to identify and designate the region as South Asia. 

All members of the SAARC were countries that had previously been under the British rule, or established as a British construct. Myanmar was left out because of its tenuous political situation. In 2007,

Afghanistan became a Member of the Regional Association. To me, it seemed that all the left overs – all those not included in any Regional Cooperation scheme had been thrown into this Association.

In fact, we were like a trifle – consisting of left over cakes and desserts.

When a name had to be found for this Association of Indian Subcontinent States, we selected the term South Asia – which had also been employed  by the US Security and Defense establishment for this region. 

As far back as in1949, a report by the US Committee responsible for Security Negotiations and Agreements, referred to South Asia. And thus, SAARC or the South Asian Association for Regional Corporation was born. 

The ASEAN success in promoting regional trade integration led in turn to the Asia Pacific and then Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) - the free trade agreement between 15 Asia-Pacific countries.

Regrettably, it was a different story for South Asia. There has been extremely slow progress in trade integration. We only have the SAFTA (The South Asian Free Trade Area). Nevertheless, while we stand autonomous as countries, we are bound by strong commonalities such as religions, languages and cultures. Most of our countries emanate from the Indus Valley Civilization originating in 3300 BCE.

Some of our countries have also been influenced by centuries of Moghul cultures of the Islamic, Persian, and Indian traditions. 

Legal, political and educational  frameworks and systems  have been inherited from the British. While there are no formal trade agreements, a large volume of unofficial trade takes place in South Asia.

For example, unofficial trade between Chennai in South India and Sri Lanka have been existing for centuries. Yet we also have drawbacks.  SAARC Heads of Governments have not met since 2014 —ostensibly due to the simmering political tensions between India and Pakistan.

Nevertheless, these two Heads of Government are seen to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summits.

On the other hand, BIMSTEC (or Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation)which includes two ASEAN members is making gradual progress.

The South Asia according to this article region remains a region ‘unbound’ .

Given that SAARC has failed in stimulating the type of regional integration promoted by ASEAN, we need to reconsider other possibilities. Was ASEAN the only criteria and model for a regional cooperation? 

The beginning of modern trading blocs can be traced to Europe. Four European countries and one half of a divided Germany

who were economically weakened by the end of World War II as well as the loss of their colonial empires got together with Luxemburg to form a common market as an alternative.

Yet is this the only alternative in the 21st Century for regional cooperation? What about the Arab league with 22 members and 7 observer states including India, Greece, Venezuela and Brazil?

 Our histories do not refer to any continents - including Asia.

For millennia, we Indians and Sri Lankans lived in an Indian Ocean centric world.

China had its middle Kingdom. It must be remembered then that these regions and sub regions were created for specific political reasons by powers outside the region.

Therefore, why should we be restricted to what we have inherited from our colonial masters?

As we watch the global shift of power to Asia in the 21st-century, we should evolve our own concepts.

In this sense, China has created its own cartography with the BRI (or Belt and Road Initiative) grounded on the ancient Maritime Silk Route - a part of our collective histories. 

At the 8th Indian Ocean Conference held in Muscat, Oman, last month, the following points were highlighted:

      (i) Focus on Indian Ocean as a separate entity  - based on the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific       (ii) The emergence of India as a global power

      (iii) The Indian Ocean community

      (iv) The establishment of a Central Secretariat for the Indian Ocean.

Therefore, to me it seems that the future of South Asia must arise from these recognitions.

Thus the South Asia that we conceptualize today is identified with

(i) Afghanistan and the Karakoram, Himalayas, Hindu Kush  mountain ranges (ii) the Indo-Gangetic Plain  and the Indian peninsula jutting out  at the center of the Indian Ocean.

We must remember that this landmass is more than a subregion or a subcontinent.

It is an intersection of the Indian Ocean.

It bridges the Indian Ocean to the east with South China Sea, and to the west with Suez, and thereon to the Mediterranean and China to the North.

This landmass will be the centerpiece of the Indian Ocean’s economic growth.

The multifaceted influence from this landmass extends far beyond the present South Asia.

Allow me to reiterate –

The palimpsest cultures of South East Asia have layers of Indian influence.

Vietnam is a country whose origin goes back to the Funan kingdom started by an Indian brahman.

Theravada Buddhism of Sri Lanka spread to Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

When the Buddhist priesthood in Sri Lanka became extinct,   monks from Siam came to Sri Lanka to re-start the ordination ceremonies.

There is regular interaction between the Sangha of these countries.

The Thai language is based on Sanskrit. The ploughing ceremony common to us all, is from India. So is the use of Brahmins in the water ceremony. The Khmer culture is a mix of Buddhism and Hinduism. Angkor Wat is a good example. The Indian Ramayana is a part of the Indonesian culture. Malaysia and Indonesia are unique Islam countries.

Layers of traditional culture influenced by India, with layers of Islamic culture, and finally, layers of the Dutch or British or Portuguese or French culture.

The Islam of Bangladesh and Hinduism of West Bengal are covered by a thick layer of Bengali nationalism.

National anthems of India and Bangladesh are by Rabindranath Tagore.

Furthermore, 7 of the countries in the region are Members of the Commonwealth with similar political, legal, educational, and administrative systems. English is common to all these countries.

In ancient times, this region was dominated by Austronesian – Malay, Sri Lankan and Indian sailors — and merchants, and some of these local trading systems are still active.

Large trading guilds from India and Aceh merchants established  regional trading systems.

There were no FTAs. All these bind us together. 

In that sense, this greater South Asia is a landmass spreading from India to Vietnam, which has centuries of common cultures and trading patterns. A Greater South Asia stretching beyond the Indian Ocean should not be an issue.  

Let me repeat, as power shifts to Asia, we must determine our regional constructs using our own criteria.

During the  8th Indian Ocean Conference, I highlighted the fact that by 2050, a new global order will emerge with three global powers – China, India and USA. We have to keep this in the back of our minds when deciding the future of South Asia.

In my understanding, this Greater South Asia (constituting the Indian Ocean Countries) will be a growth pole in Asia. Already there are synergies in the growing regional trade.

In addition to India become the second largest Economy by 2050 will also include Indonesia the 4th largest economy.

Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam will be amongst the first 30 global economies. 

Today, India is reaching the take off point to become an Economic superpower.  Therefore, the next two decades will witness an explosion of economic growth - creating an Indian centric economic region not only in the Greater South Asia Region but also in the rest of the Indian Ocean.

The Indian GDP which was US$ 3.5 Trillion in 2023 is estimated in 2050 to be in the  range from US$ 30 Trillion.  A nine-fold increase. Such a fast growth will require the new supply chains and manufacturing cluster development in the Greater South Asia Region.

It is likely that the supply chains will not be confined to India but will also include these ASEAN economies. Furthermore, it also provides opportunities for Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to become suppliers of intermediate goods under Comprehensive Economic Partnerships with India. A large number of new manufacturing and service clusters may originate from these areas. India is promoting a large number of Economic corridors. For example, India and Sri Lanka under the proposed Comprehensive Economic Agreement will have an Economic Corridor with South India, which will have a US $ 6 Trillion economy by  mid century. This will enable Sri Lanka to be a US$ 1 Trillion economy by 2060 the latest.

On the ASEAN side Malaysia and Singapore have agreed to create a joint SEZ in Johore to rival Shenzhen. These will provide a boost to the Greater South Asia Economy.

A further boost will be the four-fold increase in the GDPs of Indonesia, Bangladesh and Thailand by 2050. Singapore by then will have the highest per capita GDP in the world closer to US$ 150,000. This will be a double boost to Greater South Asia. Simultaneous increase in the GDP of the economies with an additional boost due to India Centric supply chains.

This rapid economic growth will result in Indian trade with the ASEAN countries coming closer to leveling with the China-ASEAN  trade since China’s GDP will only increase 3-fold. ASEAN will have India centric supply chains in addition to the present China centric one.  Japan will be a key player both in East Asia and Greater South Asia.

These economic developments require a new trade architecture. Unlike ASEAN countries, the SAARC countries still retain vestiges protectionist outlook. “The Nehruvian” socialism affected all of us. Sri Lanka which was the first to open up in 1977, today lags behind Vietnam  then a communist economy. The best options for SAARC countries are to initiate to enter into bilateral trade agreements and Comprehensive Economic Partnerships with all the relevant Greater South Asia countries. Therefore, there will be no European style treaties such as Rome or Lisbon. We will have a noodle bowl of trade agreements. Similarly, we do not require new regional organizations. All it requires is :

(i)  Stronger coordination between BIMSTEC – ASEAN and SAARC.

(ii) Making BIMSTEC more effective

(iii) An improvement in Indo-Pakistan relations for SAARC to function. By 2075 Pakistan will be the 5th or 6th largest global economy.

These developments can take place under the proposed Central Secretariat for the Indian Ocean.

Finally, to the Geopolitics.  A Greater South Asia will result in India taking a leading role. The dominating economy together with cultural, social and political commonalities. China will have its connectivity to the area and the Indian Ocean through China – Myanmar Economic Corridor and China - Pakistan Economic Corridor.  ASEAN countries will have both Chinese connectivity projects and Indian connectivity projects. Security-wise each country will carry out its own policies.

In Naval affairs the Bay of Bengal will be dominated by the Indian Navy, the other will be Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia. The Indian Navy will also have a presence in the Gulf of Siam together with Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam.

The Greater South Asia will be a new Economic Region in which India will be the pre-eminent.

In this sense, we must realize our significance not only at the core of  the world’s geography but also its history.