There was overwhelming feedback from readers to my previous column on overseas migration (See Business Times, February 7).
A special thanks to those who shared some rather emotional stories. There were real life stories of people who regret their decision, some who are reconsidering and those happy they made the correct decision.
Based on some of this feedback and data from many countries, it seems that migrants have had a variety of financial and social outcomes. This is not surprising as overseas migration is a multi-faceted judgement call under extreme uncertainty, which may lead to unintended consequences that may be good or bad. As the outcomes of overseas migration cannot be controlled nor foreseen, the best insurance is to build an unbiased decision making process in order to make the call in the first place.
If you ask people to offer adjectives they associate with good decision makers of the world, words like “intelligent” and “smart” are at the top of the list. But history contains plenty of examples of intelligent people who made poor decisions, with horrific consequences, as a result of cognitive mistakes.
Three factors determine the outcomes of your decisions: how you think about the problem, your actions and luck. Of these, luck is the most underrated. After analysing a situation well, you may take what appears to be the correct action. But luck, by definition is beyond your control, even though it may determine the outcome (especially over the short term). That statistical reality begs a fundamental question: should you evaluate the quality of your decisions based on the process by which you make the decision or by its outcome?
The intuitive answer is to focus on outcomes. Outcomes are objective and sort winners from losers. In many cases, those evaluating the decision believe that a favourable outcome is evidence of a good process. While pervasive, this mode of thinking is a really bad habit. The decision to uproot one’s self from comfortable, known surroundings to new surroundings is one filled with incomplete information and probabilities.
When a decision involves probability, luck plays a significant role in the outcomes. Good decisions can lead to bad outcomes, and bad decisions to good outcomes (at least for a while). In a probabilistic environment you are better served by focusing on the process by which you make a decision than on the outcome. If you make a decision based on a sound decision making process, and suffer a poor outcome, pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and get ready to do it again.
When evaluating other people’s decision to migrate, you are again better off by looking at their decision-making process rather than the outcome. There are plenty of people who succeed largely by chance. More often than not, they are completely unaware of how they did it. But they almost always get their comeuppance when fortune stops smiling on them. Likewise, skilful people who have suffered a period of poor outcomes should keep their spirits high, since luck evens out over time.
What then are the features of a good decision-making process in choosing to emigrate?
Write down the reasons for you to emigrate. The human brain has an amazing tendency to rewrite history and ignore entire parts when reminiscing on past decisions. Maintaining a written account helps you revisit the original reasons, and question their validity at different intervals. Don’t get emotional. Nothing is more likely to make you poor than your own emotions; nothing is more likely to save your finances than learning how to use cool, dispassionate reason to hold these emotions in check. Just because the local media makes Sri Lanka sound like hell on earth doesn’t mean your new destination is a heaven full of angels. Every society and country have their own problems.
Be extremely mistrustful of easy-to-understand narratives. Psychologists and historians both confirm that man truly is the primate that loves and tells stories. This works fine most of the time, but when it comes to topics like migration things become very complex really fast. Thus your brain will force you to simplify complex matters into simple stories. Don’t base your plans on the story of a friend of your neighbours, who is now doing well overseas.
Be aware of the brain drain. Viz the brains “down the drain” as opposed to the brain drain “away from Sri Lanka”.
If outcomes are not as expected, each year you stay away from your profession, your overall net worth faces a severe drag and becomes negative in less than two years.
Migrating overseas in search of excitement is an expensive exercise. If you want excitement, travel the world as a tourist. It is both cheaper and safer.
Extrapolating what happened to emigrants in the past to the future can be wealth destructive. Outcomes from many decisions are due to circumstances than attributes. The honest answer to most questions on emigration is, “it depends”.
For those of you who have the luxury of choosing, we are entering a period in history where the world will have the most mobile workforce.
In such an environment it may not be financially wise to completely turn your back on any country you have the right to live in. Experience and exposure adds more to your life in areas where formal education fails. To make “permanent” decisions in an era where change is getting packed into smaller time frames is extremely brave.
(The writer is an Investment Specialist based in Sydney, Australia. You can write to him at kajangak@gmail.com). |
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