Extending lockdown could save thousands - Report

Extending the current lockdown at least until September 18 could save 7500 lives, while extending it till October 2 could save 10,000 lives, a report by a group of health experts convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) states.

The Independent Technical Expert Group which met yesterday (26) observed that 90% of samples sequenced show that the Delta variant has now spread to other provinces other than the Western province. Hospitals are at full capacity with an increasing number of health workers getting infected. Critical supplies are low in stock, including oxygen, the report notes.

Clinicians working in hospitals have noted an increase in the number of “severely ill” patients, it further warned. The report also notes that Sri Lanka's COVID death rate is currently one of the highest in the world.

The report calls for enforcement of stringent measures with compliance of the public to reinforce accelerated vaccination along with a social support system for the vulnerable population.

“Maintaining stringency to reduce transmission, caseload and deaths will enable quicker economic recovery,” the experts stress.

According to the report, extending lockdowns past August 31st is projected to reduce deaths from COVID-19. If the lockdowns are extended to September 18 and October 2, respectively, 7,500 and 10,000 deaths can be prevented relative to a release of lockdown on August 31.

The government announced this afternoon that the prevailing lockdown will be further extended until 4.00am on September 6.

Extending the lockdown would allow for the vaccination drive to be completed for effective protection of the population while also giving the health system some time to recover from extreme pressure including shortage of beds and critical supplies like oxygen, the experts note.

The experts recommend extending strict social measures to reduce transmission. Household and individual compliance is crucial, they note. They further recommend better targeting measures that should be used by using mobility data from Google Maps, mobile phone data and Facebook data to identify the most important measures. “Plan in advance for a systematic re-opening of sectors, regions, return of employment,” they add.

They also call to strengthen the social support system by engaging with temples and religious groups, NGOs, and civil society to overcome the needs of lower income groups.

The full report of the expert group can be found here.